Futures Studies in Health in Iran: A Scoping Review

Futures studies are constantly evolving and help organizations and individuals for better identification of future events, opportunities, and threats. In the field of health, futures studies are also applied for better prediction of health issues in future, control of unpleasant condition and preparing for pleasant future in health system. The purpose of this study is to conduct a scoping review of the futures studies accomplished in the field of health in Iran, 

This study is a scoping review, conducted based on the Arksey and O’Malley framework with 6 steps including research question identification, related study identification, study selection / screening, data segmentation, summarizing and reporting results and providing guidance and recommendations n. National and international databases and search engines including PubMed, Web Of Science (WOS), Scopus, ProQuest, SID, Magiran, IranDoc and Google Scholar were searched using related keywords. After removing duplicate articles, the remaining articles were screened according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. The results of the selected articles were finally categorized, summarized and reported based on the mentioned steps.

Among of 6691 articles identified, 30 articles reached the final synthesis stage. The articles were classified into forecasting, foresighting, and mixed categories, with the scenario writing method being the most widely used and applied in 20 studies. Also, studies were classified in scope of nature based on quantitative or qualitative and time horizon. Types of futures studies methods in Iran, in the fields of public health, medicine, science and technology, financing, prescription, health tourism, diet, human resources, aging, Covid-19 epidemic, health policy, hospital and macro level of health system were used.

The use of futures studies methods in a targeted manner and on the issues of Iran’s health system can play an effective role in knowing the future for more informed decision-making and planning in order to build a desirable future. The results of this review showed that scattered studies have been conducted with futures studies methods in the field of health, among which the scenario writing method has received more attention.