Investigating and Analyzing the Efficiency of Iran’s Agricultural Export Target Markets in Member Countries of Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Entering the global markets leads to economic development in domestic and foreign dimensions, and along with the globalization of the economic structure, it creates a completely competitive environment in which powerful and efficient economic companies will have a chance to survive. In this regard, if trade is far from its real potential, it will be a very important obstacle on the way to achieving the goal of economic growth and its subcategory goals. Hence, taking advantage of the opportunities created through trade agreements requires market research to identify the potential of target markets. This article aimed at investigating the determinants of the bilateral agricultural exports between Iran and the other official members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and then analyzing the agricultural export potential of Iran in these target markets through the Stochastic Frontier Gravity model in the period 2001-2018 by STATA 16 software. It should be mentioned that the export efficiency in the target market is defined as the ratio of a country's actual exports to its maximum export potential. Based on the results, the variables of economic and physical size of trading partners had positive and significant effects, while geographical distance had a negative effect on Iran's agricultural exports; in addition, trade freedom and economic difference played an effective role in increasing Iran's agricultural exports to the trading partners of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In the period of 2016-2018, the efficiency of Iran's exports was found to be in the range of 11.9 to 86.4, indicating the lowest efficiency for Uzbekistan and the highest for Pakistan, which showed the significant difference in Iran's market performance in the member countries of this organization. As the signs of the model variables, it is suggested that exporters purpose the near target markets with higher per capita income and larger population. Also, considering the fluctuations in the trade efficiency of each of the target markets in different periods, it is suggested that maintaining trade stability and continuous presence in the target markets in order to brand Iranian products and build trust in business partners should be taken into account in regulating trade relationships and formulating export strategies through the capacity of Iran's membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.