Evaluation of the distribution of different uses in the city of Kerman with an emphasis on the future development of the city of Kerman

 Urban land use patterns undergo fundamental changes over time, and in creating these changes,the role of humans and their activities is the most important. Therefore,modeling and predicting land use changes in the future,considering their changes in the past,will greatly help city managers and planners in making better decisions to guide the future development of the city.In line with the mentioned cases,the purpose of the present research will help to reveal the changes and modeling the development of Kerman city. To achieve this goal, the images of TM, ETM+ and OLI sensors of Landsat satellite were used for the years 2010 to 2020,respectively,in order to prepare land use maps of the studied area. In addition, the parameters used in this research included distance from highways and roads,distance from higher education centers and distance from military centers.In the pre-processing stage, after applying geometric, radiometric and atmospheric corrections,image highlighting operations are performed and using the supervised classification method with the maximum likelihood algorithm,in three classes of built land, barren land and vegetation of land use maps.were prepared In the second stage, the changes made in terms of area, trend and spatial distribution were investigated and analyzed. In the next stage, based on these changes and three independent variables, the modeling of the potential of multi-layered use conversion was done. This method can be used to predict future changes.

The research method is descriptive-Analytical, the research data is prepared by documentation and field methods and references to organizations. The types of users were examined at the Kerman city level and the ratio of each was obtained.

The forecast results of 1405 show the fact that if the current trend of changes continues until 1405,the area will increase by 1357 hectares compared to the current situation, and the area of ​​barren land and vegetation will decrease by 1077 and 472 hectares. The results of this study can help urban planners and managers to better understand the current conditions and make appropriate decisions in the future for proper land cover management.