Presenting a Model for Simulating Rural Tourism Development Determinants (Case Study: Deh-e Bala Villages, Taft County, Iran)

The ideal development of the rural tourism industry requires an extensive knowledge of its key determinants and the associated issues. Against this background, this study was to present a model for simulating rural tourism development (RTD) in Deh-e Bala villages, Taft County, Yazd, Iran, given the major determinants. Utilizing a mixed-methods (qualitative-quantitative) approach, this applied study implemented a descriptive-analytical design. The statistical population in the qualitative part comprised university professors and tourism managers, but only university professors were recruited in the quantitative part. Snowball sampling was also practiced to reach theoretical saturation in the qualitative part, while purposive sampling was performed in the quantitative one. The data collection tools included interviews and questionnaires. In the qualitative part, thematic analysis was completed to identify the RTD determinants, which were then prioritized via the fuzzy Delphi method (FDM). At last, the RTD model was simulated in the quantitative part through agent-based modeling (ABM). The data analysis was done using the MAXQDA 20 software in the qualitative part and the Microsoft Excel and AnyLogic software packages in the quantitative one, contributing to the emergence of 44 primary codes, ten sub-themes, and four main themes (i.e., managerial, infrastructural, economic, and social factors). In this context, the managerial factor was labeled the most effective one. Moreover, the simulation output revealed that the RTD rate in Deh-e Bala villages, Taft County, Yazd, Iran, was over 95%. Along with the study results, tourism managers are suggested to dedicate much more attention to the key determinants and their leading roles in RTD.