A Critique on Demographic Report “Stanford Iran 2040 Project: Iran’s Population Dynamics and Demographic Window of Opportunity”

The present article is the result and output of the analyzes and a series of investigations that have been conducted to review the demographic report of " Stanford Iran 2040 Project". The Stanford project, which is called Iran 2040 due to its forward-looking nature, is an academic initiative that serves as a hub for researchers all around the world—particularly scholars of the Iranian diaspora—to conduct research on economic and technical matters related to the long-term development of Iran and to evaluate their possible implications in a global context. The project encourages quantitative and forward-looking research on a broad array of areas relating to Iran's economic development. It seeks to envision the future of the country under plausible scenarios. The sectors that will be covered within the first phase of the project include the economy, energy, water, environment, food and agriculture, and transportation. The project has been co-sponsored by the Hamid and Christina Moghadam Program in Iranian Studies and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford. The analyses presented in this study are primarily based on the results of Iran’s 2016 and previous censuses and data from Iran’s National Organization for Civil Registration, Iran’s Ministry of Higher Education, the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and the World Bank. The population section of the report is organized in seven sections including: 1. Population growth and its determinants 2. Fertility and national policies 3. Age structure 4. Geographical distribution 5. Employment 6. Education and 7. Harnessing demographic dividends, which is trying to move towards a correct understanding of the dynamics of Iran's population and the understanding of Iran's long-term development potential, which is of great importance. Also, it has discussed the past trends and future projections of Iran's population dynamics, evaluated the contribution of its major determinants (fertility, mortality, and migration) and discussed Iran’s rapidly changing age composition. The report then place Iran’s record fertility decline in an international context through a comparative analysis. The report somehow insinuates that Iran should focus on the demographic window and job creation and not on the fertility rate, and declares the decision to implement a pronatalist policy (population increase policies) premature.