Presenting a Model for Simulating Factors Affecting Brand Loyalty in the Online Retail Industry with a System Dynamics Approach

Due to the significant and increasing expansion of online shopping in the retail industry and changing consumer behavior, one of the concerns of online retailers in this industry is to create loyalty and a sense of belonging among customers. The aim of this research is to provide a dynamic model for developing a brand loyalty strategy in the online retail industry. For this purpose, using the system dynamics method, the main factors affecting brand loyalty, recognition, and their relationships were determined in the form of a cause-and-effect diagram. Finally, using the cause-and-effect diagram and referring to the opinion of experts and the background of the research, a flow diagram was prepared. The dynamic simulation of the research has been done using Vensim software version 7.3.5 in the time horizon of 10 years, from 1392 (2013) to 1402 (2023) for online retail consumers. The validity of the model has been confirmed through the implementation of behavior reproduction tests and model sensitivity analysis. Then, three scenarios of a 70% increase in customer satisfaction, a 30% increase in customer satisfaction, and a 50% increase in improvement policies and strategies were proposed based on the opinions of experts, and the results of these scenarios were simulated. The findings showed that increasing customer satisfaction and improvement policies and strategies increase brand loyalty, which indicates business growth. Among these three scenarios, a 70% increase in customer satisfaction had a greater impact on brand loyalty. Therefore, businesses with the two arms of customer satisfaction and improvement policies and strategies can increase and control brand loyalty, which lead to an increase in the annual revenue of each customer.