Investigating the Trend of Temperature Changes and Evaluating the Relationship Between Temperature with Yield and Biomass (Case Study: Forage Maize in Qazvin)

Climatic factors play an important role in the growth and development of plants and affect agriculture. The tolerance threshold of plants for each of these factors is limited. Any change in these factors can directly and indirectly have significant effects on agricultural production. Meanwhile, temperature stress is one of the most important damaging phenomena that causes many problems for production and yield. In this research, the time of occurrence of temperature stress with a statistical period of 44 years (1980-2023) and the relationship between air temperature with yield and biomass were investigated. According to meteorological data, June, July, and August were known as the hottest months of the year. On the other hand, the most heat waves were observed in July and August in the years 1997, 2014, and 2018, which led to a decrease in the quality of the product or the loss of the plant. According to the model evaluation results, the accuracy of the model in simulating days to flowering and days to maturity was confirmed using R2 (0.8 and 0.51) and NRMSE (15.36 and 7.12). Also, the model was simulated for the studied fields with deviation percentages of 1.92, 5.65, 4.94, 1.58, 0.96, and 1.49%, respectively. It showed that the model had a satisfactory performance and could be used for maize production planning. Next, the relationship between temperature, yield, and biomass was investigated, and there was a negative and significant relationship between temperature, yield, and biomass at the 99% confidence level.