Prediction Model of Motorcycles Accidents in the Intersections of the City of Tehran

Motorcycles are mostly used in city and intercity travels in the country and their utilization has recently grown significantly. Using motorcycles have not unfortunately been associated with appropriate planning, therefore it has brought up so many problems through which the most important one is the increased number of accidents and the consequent damages and mortalities. Due to the complexity of cars and vehicles accident, the number of research studies in this respect has not been satisfactory in the world. In our country no research study has been implemented up to now.In this research study that part of it has been presented in this paper, a comprehensive database including all the information on geometric design of roads, specifications of traffic, specifications of the vehicles involved in accidents in 241 intersections in Tehran have been collected. This database was prepared by utilization of the Database of Tehran Vehicles Accidents, as well as Tehran Comprehensive Studies on Transportation and Traffic. By using this database some models were made for the purpose of predicting motorcycles accidents in the studied intersections, as well as the probability of motorcycles involvement in the intersections accidents. The logistic regression was used for modeling. Results show that factors like the intensity of accidents, dryness of the pavements, existence of the special bus lines, locating the intersections in the forbidden traffic areas, are amongst the most important factors that have the greatest effects on the motorcycles involvement in Tehran accidents in intersections. Using the motorcycles involvement probability parameter in accidents and application of public linear models and appropriate transfer functions have resulted a model by which the prediction of the number of motorcycles accidents in the city intersections would be possible. The accuracy of the model is descriptive of the fact that the attempts performed in predicting the motorcycles accidents have been quite successful.Based on the obtained results, regarding the probability of motorcycles involvement in accidents there are some factors influencing the whole process. These factors are the route grading, traffic volume, the difference between the input and output of routes, two sidedness of the routes and finally, the width of the roads. These factors have the greatest effects on the number of accidents in Tehran intersections.