Estimating and Mapping 24-h Probable Maximum Precipitation by Statistical Methods as Compared to Synoptic Method for Iran

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is the maximum possible amount of precipitation which could occur in a gauging station, a region, or in a watershed. Probable maximum precipitation is usually estimated by two general methods the first is synoptic method in which short period (hourly) meteorological parameters such as dew point, wind speed and air pressure are used. The second is statistical method which is based on the statistical analysis of the 24-h maximum precipitations. In this study, the amount of 24-h PMP was estimated by Hershfield, Bethlahmy and modified Bethlahmy methods using date obtained from meteorological and Ministry of Energy over 15 or more years. The results showed that there exist large differences between statistical and synoptic methods however, there are rather smaller differences between Bethlahmy and synoptic methods. For modified Bethlahmy method, the results were multiplied by a coefficient of relative humidity. Then the calibrated 24-h PMP values were estimated for all meteorological stations of Iran and a contour map of 24-h PMP for the country was developed. Results showed that a minimum value of 24-h PMP (110 mm) occurred in the central part of country and a maximum amount (260 mm) was found in both south and north parts of Iran.