Estimation of Road Saftey and Hot Spots Detection by Bayesian Method

Since the consequcnces of accidents are not obvious, the estimation is the only way to study the safety. The exprimental method of Boyes is utilized for safety estimation. When we access to a limited period of accidents statistics, for example 2 or 3 years, the method can enhance the reliability of safety estimation to a great extent and decrease the errors of regression-to-mean. When the common methods for estimation are not completely accurate, the importance of measurment accuracy increases. Correeting the error of regression-to-mean is important, when the time period of past accidents are related to causes of safety measurments. This method illuminates more reliadble and accurate of road safety for experts and does not make mistake of regression-to-maen in hot spot detection. It is recommended to ulilize this method due to its simplicity and high accutacy.