Forecasting Bus Dwell Time in Stops in Tehran Bus Transportation System

Bus transportation system is one of the most important systems in urban areas. Increasing user’s satisfaction and optimal usage of existent facilities without planning is impossible. Dwell time in bus stops is one of the parameters that affect the quality of plans in this system. By identifying the factors that affect on dwell time and forecasting this parameter, we can develop proper strategies to reduce dwell time and increase both in vehicle and waited passenger’s satisfaction. In this paper, Tehran bus transportation system was studied and factors that can affect dwell time parameters were identified and alternatively some data about dwell time in this system were collected. The regression analysis to estimate the effects of some these factors such as number of alighted and boarded passengers in stops on dwell time parameter was used. Based on the collected data, the ability of some functions in previous studies was evaluated to forecast dwell time parameters and a new nonlinear function to forecast it was developed. By microscopic analyzing of stop process, a new discrete event simulation model based on Enterprise Dynamics software was designed. This model was used to evaluate the strategies that can improve dwell time and estimate the effects of other factors that were not found in the collected data in this case study. The results show the dwell time of buses in stops can be reduced about 23 percent by changing in payment fare system to electronic payment system. Also the authors found out that the place of stops in this system has not any effect on dwell time parameter or gender of passengers is not important to estimate duration of stopping in stations.