An Evaluation of Poverty in Semnan Province During the First, Second and Third Development Plans (1368-1383)

This study attempts to answer the question that whether the First, Second and Third Development Plans in Iran (1368-1383) could have changed the poverty structure in Semnan Province? In answering this question, the poverty line, head-count index, poverty gap index and the Foster-Greek-Thorbecke index have been estimated based on household income-expenditure statistics using Linear Expenditure System (LES) and Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regression (ISUR). The results demonstrate that the poverty line in urban and rural areas during the said period exhibits an upward trend. It is also found that the poverty line in urban areas is always above the rural areas. In addition, the proportion of poor class people and the depth of poverty in urban and rural areas in Semnan Province have been increased during the First Development Plan but have been decreased during the Second and Third Development Plans.