Determining optimal pattern of integrated production of agricultural and horticultural crops with emphasis on production risk in Fars province, Iran

In order to develop a risk-including optimal cropping pattern of agricultural and horticultural crops in Neyriz, conventional linear programming and risk programming approaches including MOTAD and TMOTAD were applied. The data set was obtained throughout the Neyrizian farmers randomly. The results showed that in MOTAD model, the minimized risk or objective function increased by rising expected income, leading to replacement of low income bearing crops with high ones. Orange and tangerine due to high income bearing condition were preferred to apple, cotton and watermelon in higher levels of expected income. In fact, the pattern was leaded toward high income crops. The results of TMOTAD model revealed a reduced cropping area for cotton and watermelon, replacing with high income crops indicating the effect of risky condition on mentioned crops. The cropping area of orange and tangerine were increased as a high income bearing. Another considerable finding was that the results of the above three model were the same at highest income risk.