Multi-Criteria Decision Making Based on Scenario planning for Long - term power generation planning in Iran

Considering the importance of scientific decision-making for planning, in this article a decision making framework for long term electricity generation planning, has been studied. For this purpose, using LEAP software, some scenarios have been designed for 20 years power generation planning in Iran. These scenarios are evaluated using Analytical Hierarchy process (AHP), which is based on expert opinions. Because the energy resources in Iran can be categorized as fossil, nuclear and renewable resources, three scenarios, each based on one of resources,have been designed. Different criteria for evaluating scenarios were extracted from various papers. Also in order to consider local conditions in decision making, Indigenous criteria were extracted from visions, policies and laws of Iran. Finally experts’ opinions were collected and scenarios wereprioritized by Expert Choice software. The results indicate according to the opinion of expert group, fossil resources are the most appropriate scenario for Iran power planning and renewable scenario is the second priority. According to this study the least important issue for energy planning is environmental issue, Whereas technical issues and economic issues respectively are the most effective factors for decision-making in Iran.