Simulation of Iran's Independent Gas Field Production by Applying Hubbert Theory (A System Dynamics Approach)

The American geophysicist M. King Hubbert introduced a logistic equation to estimate the peak and lifetime production for oil of United States in 1956, which became known as the Hubbert peak theory. In this research, by applying system dynamics approach, based on the hubbert theory, we simulate Iran's independent gas reservoirs using the Ithink software. These reservoirs which are independent from oil fields account for 70% of Iran's total gas resources. Therefore analyzing their conditions is important in assessing Iran's future gas supply condition. Our simulation results indicate that depending on factors such as levels of exploration, reservoir leakage, extraction rate and investment, peak production will be reached between Iranian years 1409 and 1430. The base run simulation, which assumes continuation of current trends on above noted parameters produces a peak production level of 2350 million cubic metres of gas in 1412. The simulation exercise indicates the importance of reservoir preservation and extraction patterns on time needed to reach peak production.