Iran and Regional Security Dynamics in the Middle East: Trends and Prospects

here are a number of known and unknown variables that are likely to shape regional security dynamics and international relations in the Middle East in the coming years. The outcomes and impacts of two broad, on-going trends are relatively easily discernible. They include continued American military presence in the Middle East; and a continued qualitative shift in the nature of power that has determined regional alignments and postures over the last decade or so. The consequences of these two trends are relatively easy to discern: a continuation of the American security umbrella; the emergence of a new regional power block, namely the GCC, that relies on a qualitatively new form of power than that heretofore prevalent in the region—what may be called “subtle power”; and the regional states’ continuation of uneasy relations with Iran without jeopardizing their close alliance with the United States. These trends are taking place in a context of fluid, and highly unstable, domestic politics in most countries of the Middle East that are rocked by the Arab Spring. The specter of collapsed states, once limited to Afghanistan and Pakistan, has now spread to Libya, Syria, and possibly even Bahrain. Iran’s ability to proactively respond to each of these developments will determine its power and stature in the region and beyond. Unless it can place itself in front of these emerging waves, it may find itself subsumed by them, or, at the very least, have its position undermined through their force.