نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 25 (بهار 1395)

Since Iranian government’s budget is depends to oil revenues, it is expected that oil price fall affect all markets especially labor market in Iran. In this paper, we analyze the effects of oil revenue fall on skilled and unskilled labor employment, using a multi sector computable general equilibrium model. The results are investigated based on 2011 Micro Consistent Matrix. Based on the findings of this paper, oil revenue decrease affect activity level and employment of labor in sectors differently, such that the activity level of all sectors and the unskilled labor employment in all sectors will decrease. The skilled labor employment, on the other hand, will fall in “services” sector, while it will increase in all other sectors. Moreover, the results reveal a substitution of skilled labor to unskilled labor in all sectors after falling oil revenue.

This paper evaluates the predictive ability of mixed-frequency autoregressive models in forecasting seasonal inflation rate of IRAN economy. For this, forecasting accuracy of models with monthly lags of inflation rate are compared with a benchmark model which uses seasonal lags. Results indicate incorporating monthly lags, instead of seasonal lags, improves the accuracy of seasonal forecasts, especially for 1-step ahead forecasts. Among mixed-frequency models, MIDAS regressions are more accurate than the benchmark model in 1-step, 3-step and 4-step ahead forecasts. Step-weighting model which features proliferation of parameters outperforms the MIDAS regression which is non-linear and parameter efficient in estimation.

This paper employs the Hall-Roeger model to determine the level of competition in Iranian banking industry during 2007 -2011. In so doing, the Lerner Index calculated for 18 Private and Public banks. We find that during this period the Lerner index for 15 banks has been fluctuated from 0.1 to 0.90 and for three remain banks is negative. The findings suggest that more than 0.80 of operating in the country, there is significant gap between their price and marginal costs lead them to gain market power. Also in this study we have estimate the Herfindal-Hirschman Index and the k bank ratio over the years of 2003-2011 and show that over this period concentration degree has reduced.

The aim of this article is to evaluate the effect of education and job experience on the work-related earnings. The relationships between earnings and education have long been studied. In the present study, the Mincerian wage equation, and Cobb-Douglas production function was used to examine the relationship between education and job experience and earnings from work. To estimate of the regression equations, we were used the cross-sectional data that extracted from the expenditure and income urban and rural households survey conducted by Statistical Center of Iran in 1384-1393. As well as, this study has considered seven levels of education for individuals: illiterate, elementary, middle, Diploma, Associate Degree, bachelor, master or higher degree. The job experience variable is equal to age minus the age of ending education. The scrutiny of earning data show that earning-age profiles (for both men and women) are parabolic and concave with to age axis. Also, this result was confirmed by the results of estimating equations based on Mincerian equations because the sign of square of job experience’s variable was negative (for both men and women for all years). The results also show that the variables of education and job experience (learning in practice) both on the dependent variable, namely annual earnings from work have a positive impact, but in most cases the effect of education on earnings was more than twice that of the revenue.

Achieving long-term and sustained economic growth is possible by allocating investment resources in the national economy and to achieve this goal, a broad and dynamic financial markets particularly dynamic stock market is essential. In this study, the effect of financial liberalization on stock market development have been analyzed by using dynamic panel techniques based on Arrelano and Bonad System generalized method of momentsin the Middle East and North Africa over the period 2000-2014. The empirical results of this study confirmed firstly, the transmission of stock market performance to the next and so stock market dynamics. The results confirm that the financial and trade openness and presence on the international scene help to improve the stock market value. Also, if financial liberalization is not accompanied with trade liberalization, its Positive effect on the development of capital markets is the weak. In addition, GDP as a proxy of market size and capacity of attracting foreign investment have positive and significant effect on stock market development.

Human development has been used as one of the most important indicators for measuring the development of countries in recent decades. Also human development quality improvement plays a significant role in economic development and one of the ways to increase human development, is health services promotion. In this paper, we investigate the effects of government’s health and treatment expenditures on human development quality for Iran provinces. For this purpose, we use human development index (HDI) as human development quality indicator and also we use panel data method for 2005- 2011 period. The results shows that governments health and treatment expenditures, education expenditures, GDP and the rate of urbanization has positive and significant effects on Human Development Index, While private health expenditures has negative and significant effects on Human Development Index.