نشریه مدیریت بحران
سال هفتم شماره 2 (پیاپی 14، پاییز و زمستان 1397)

Natural disasters, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and hurricanes cause enormous harm each year. Thus it is necessary to have an intelligent decision support system in these disasters. To allocate and schedule rescue units efficiently, we develop a mix integer nonlinear programming model (MINLP) to minimize the sum of weighted completion times of relief operations with fatigue effect consideration. After relief to several incidents, rescuers become tired and need more time to relief the remaining incidents assigned to them. Because of the complexity of the candidate problem, finding the optimal solution for this complicated problem in a reasonable time using exact optimization tools is very time-consuming; thus, two meta-heuristics, Genetic algorithm (GA) and Enhanced particle swarm optimization (EPSO) are proposed to solve the candidate problem. The experimental results show that the GA has better performance in CPU time criteria and the EPSO generates better solutions for entire test problems.

Transporting the injured people from the affected areas to the hospitals and medical centers and distributing the relief commodities are the most important activities during a disaster’s response phase. An efficient relief logistics planning can reduce fatalities in a disaster situation. In this study, a multi-objective, multi-commodity model is presented for locating the temporary medical centers in appropriate locations and allocating the affected areas to the hospitals and the temporary medical centers. Moreover, the relief commodities and injured people logistics are considered as well. The proposed model attempts to minimize the total cost and the weighted sum of unserved injured people. The total cost consists of the procurement cost of relief commodity, transportation cost, set up and shortage cost. The Lp-Metric method is applied to solve the multi-objective model. Finally, the proposed model is analyzed through a case study on an earthquake scenario in the Amol city of Mazandaran province.

Annually, natural disasters bring irreparable injuries and losses for people throughout the world. Relief activities have to receive a deal of attention due to the negative consequences of natural disasters; thus, this paper develops a non-linear bi-objective model in the context of humanitarian logistics. The proposed logistics network consists of suppliers, hospitals, relief distribution centers, and affected areas. The objective of the proposed model is to minimize total cost while maximizing the satisfactory level. Furthermore, uncertainty relating to parameters are captured in the model through robust optimization, firstly, the nonlinear terms are linearized and then the bi-objective model is solved as a single-objective applying compromise programming method. Finally, to demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the model, a real case study on earthquake disaster in region 1# of Tehran city is considered; three scenarios are defined namely Ray fault, Shomal fault, and Mosha fault. The results show the higher value for a total cost under the scenario of Shomal fault, as this fault is located near the considered region causing more losses, also, when the number of established relief distribution centers increases, the value of total cost decreases, because of a more resilient distribution system

The urban transportation network is an essential component of our daily life in modern communities. This network is vulnerable to natural and humanitarian disasters. Its degradation may lead to large negative impacts on the economic efficiency of such communities. A bridge collapse or a terrorist attack may severely reduce accessibility and increase travel time significantly in urban transportation networks. Therefore, evaluation of the impacts of different crises on a transportation network will help to reduce such degradations. On the other hand, the repair and maintenance of highway bridges, as the most critical component of the transportation networks, imposes a large portion of total annual maintenance costs, and usually due to lack of unlimited budget, this money has to be spent based on the importance and/or priority of the bridges in the network. The current study aims to prioritize the critical bridges during an evacuation in crisis conditions in urban transportation networks. The rank of each bridge is based on the difference in the total network travel time before and after that given bridge is eliminated from the network in such condition. The bridge that by its elimination causes higher travel time is considered more critical. This proposed method is applied to 78 bridges in the city of Isfahan traffic network. According to the results with proper scenarios, Andishe, Shahid Amini and Shahid Kharazi bridges rank as the top three with the highest traffic volumes, while Andishe, Imam Khomeini and Pol-e-Vahid bridges are the top three based on the proposed travel time method.

Iran is a vast country that has long been an area of the Earth’s crust caused by the release of energy accumulated in it, always large and destructive shake occurs. Therefore, the analysis of natural hazards is essential because it can make decisions and prioritization of actions in crisis management, essential steps to be taken. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a model for seismic hazard analysis based on both main hazard of ground shaking and ground failure. Therefore, due to the large descriptive and location data, Software system designed and developed based on Geo-spatial information system and the ability to analyze the spatial data. This model to analyze the hazard analysis of ground shaking, in two attenuation relationship is used for the country, which according to the uncertainties involved in earthquake (magnitude of earthquake, focal depth and location of epicenter of the earthquake), this operation is selected at random each time and after each hazard analysis, the output of ground shaking (Peak ground acceleration, Peak ground velocity and peak ground displacement) is calculated. In the proposed model to analyze the hazard analysis of ground failure, based on area and proposed algorithms, three secondary hazard of earthquake (liquefaction, landslides and faulting) is analyzed. At this stage, given the liquefaction and landslide susceptibility can be calculated permanent displacement caused by liquefaction and landslide hazards for each component and each iteration of the simulation. All these steps are based on Monte Carlo simulation to considering the uncertainties are repeated 10 thousand times. Then averaging available outputs in the database, so that all failure modes be considered. This model could provide map of ground shaking and ground failure hazard for each parameter. In this paper, in order to get a better view this research, models was implemented and analyzed for the city of Neyshabour. That according to the selected scenario, the values of between 0.037 g to 0.48g PGA was calculated for the city. Liquefaction susceptibility in this city is mostly between 2 category of low and medium susceptibility. There was high susceptibility in the northwestern city. Landslide susceptibility in this city was evaluated mostly on the none susceptibility. Most displacement caused by liquefaction is related to the hazard of lateral spread that was evaluated mostly between 1 and 9 inches.

In urban areas, the number of deep excavations has been increasing due to the rising population and land cost.Hence, the application of different supporting systems for the excavations has become a common issue to engineers.Considering the critical accidents statistics in excavation works, this article has focused on prioritizingthe most common supporting systems in the urban areas, using the AHP method. In the first step, by interviewingthe experts on this issue, six common supporting systems and six criterions for prioritization of them were identified.Then, by designing a questionnaire, the pairwise comparison of the alternatives and criterions has beenconducted. According to the expert's opinions, each of the supporting systems received different priorities in eachof the six criterions. Finally, after the analysis of the questionnaires using EXPERT CHOICE, the final prioritiesof the supporting systems were presented. Accounting all the priorities in different criterions, “Soil Nailing” wasrecognized as the most appreciable method for supporting the excavation in shallow-to-medium excavation pits.In the final step, the article analysis results were evaluated compared with the real process of choosing the supportingsystems in practical excavations.

Environmental risk management is a systematic process and identifies the risks and environmental harmfulimpacts, evaluate, analyze and risks control to an optimal and acceptable level. This study was aimed to identifyand prioritize the risks and impacts and Present management solutions of Ahvaz desalination plant activities(No.1). To achieve this goal, first, risk generating activities based on fieldwork and interviews and reports of currentsituation identified and through Delphi questionnaire based on the Likert scale the risk productive activitieswere selected. Then, using the TOPSIS method, risk generating activities based on three indices of the intensity ofthe risk, the probability of risk occurrence and extent of contamination were ranking. The results showed that theactivity of storage, transfer, and injection of chemicals into the tanks with Proximity Coefficient 1 in the first andtransfer the wastewater to evaporation ponds (ponds of removing salt) with Proximity Coefficient 0.126 in the lastrisk priority. In general, it can be stated that the causes for these risks are depreciation and impairment of equipment(pipes, pumps, and tanks), that with monitoring and proper management of these problems can be reduced.

Desertification after climate changes and deficiency of fresh water is the third important global challenge duringthe 21st century. This phenomenon is the consequence of a series of processes in which climate changeand human activities are more important factors than others. Therefore, recognition and assessment of the desertificationtrend are very important issues for better region management. Hence, the aim of this study is theassessment of desertification changes in Qom province using Landsat satellite images, TM5 and LCDM8 sensorsin(1984-2013) with emphasis on the precipitation. Indicators used in this study are Normalized Difference VegetationIndex (NDVI) and Soil Salinity Index (s1, s2, s3). According to Fuzzy ARTMAP method, the land use duringthe period of (1984-2013) recognized and the land use changes were evaluated based on the Multilayer PerceptronNeural Network (MLP) Model in software TERRSET. To study the effect of precipitation on desertification, themonthly data of GPCC have been used and the spatial-temporal trend of annual precipitation was evaluated usingthe Mann-Kendall nonparametric test at 0.95 level of significance. The results showed that the salinity and thedesert lands have been increased relative to the first year of study period from 3% to 18% and about 15% growth.The vegetation has arrived from 7% to 2% that about was reduced 5%. The greatest increase of saline land is seenin the western part of Qom, which replaces the vegetation. The increasing amount in saline and desert lands isabout 1751 km2. Study of land use changes illustrated that saline lands and city are growing whereas vegetation,Sultan-Houz Lake, Salt Lake, and arid lands are reducing. The analysis of precipitation spatial-temporal trendrevealed a decreasing trend on annual time series at the 0.95 level of significance. Obtained results provide a basisfor better recognition and proper combating desertification in the studied region.

Although subway-surface station plays a significant role in many countries, these stations attract lower consideration in scientific research. Some factors such as being in the depth of earth and capability for multipurpose use, cause more attraction for underground stations; although safety and stability of a subway line require its business continuity. The main purpose of this research is to extract and prioritizing of architectural design of above ground stations based on passive defense criteria. In this research, data collection has been carried out from the library studies and direct observation. Data analysis was carried out by employing SPSS and Expert Choice software. Results show that among principles of architectural design, three principles, include optimum form, flexible and resistant surface and suitable and stable interior design, from a passive defense point of view are most important and effective principles. The necessary requirements and framework were analyzed and developed for each of these principles

The absence of preparations of civil defense in principles of urban planning and master & detailed plans have faced the life of cities with serious threats in militant crisis. Unfortunately, it is clear that there is not any significant consideration in these plans related to the definition of civil defense and if they exist, they have not employed in the executive process. This challenge also exists in agreement TYPE 12 as agenda for preparing the master plans of Iranian cities. The main goal of this research is explaining a model for application of civil defense in the cities master plans. This model produced and introduced as documentation of civil defense elements and identifying the urban defenseless elements, scenario making of urban threats and vulnerabilities, strategic analysis, exporting and classification of thematic strategies of civil defense and ultimately modifying agenda of Sanandaj city master plan as the basic sample. The research methodology of paper is a descriptive and analytical method that analyzes the content relying on library documentation and field study. The extracted strategies of the paper show that civil defense definition can be used in all headings of cities master plan. At the end of the paper, a model was presented to show how civil defense can be used in urban development plans in order to reduce urban vulnerability.

The issue of ethical leadership in organizations is a matter of particular concern addressed specifically for threats such as coping with the crisis and opportunities for ethical behavior and the issue of unethical behavior. Considering the importance of this concept, the purpose of this research is to provide tactics for the formation of Ethic Leadership based on different levels of crisis and coping with the crisis in the organization of defense industry of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This research has used the philosophy of interpretation, deductive approach, qualitative method, and data strategy with an emerging approach. The study population was the managers and experts of the Defense Industries Organization and its de- pendent groups that had a theoretical and practical knowledge of ethical leadership and its contributing factors. The sample was also 22 experts from the organization people. The analysis method based on the Glaser coding method. In the final stage of coding, and for theoretical coding, the family of "tactic" Glaser used. The results of the theoretical coding showed that four major tactics for the formation of ethical leadership in the Defense Industries Organization include facilitating and supporting, co-operating, explicitly and coercing, and emphasizing and appealing. These tactics show that the organiza- tion uses various tactics in order to achieve ethical leadership, most of which are in these four categories. These tactics help managers and leaders of the defense industry organization to provide ethical leaders in the breeding organization, coping with the crisis or the context in which they formed.