پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان
سال سیزدهم شماره 26 (پاییز و زمستان 1397)

In evaluation of countries’ economic performance and policy, Some macroeconomic indicators plays a key role due to its impact on other macroeconomic variables. Employment, income distribution, price level, consumption and investment are very important economic variables that are affected by economic growth. Therefore, one of the most important goals of economic policies is to achieve a stable high economic growth rate. Because of that, recognizing the factors that determine the effect of monetary policy on economic growth, makes it possible for policy makers to plan for increasing the economic growth. The aim of this study is to examine the financial development and the impact of globalization on influence of monetary policies on GDP. For this purpose, data of 34 high-income countries for  2000-2014 and Auto Generation Vector Panel Model have been used. This study showed that Despite of openness the reaction of GDP to the impact of monetary policy is positive. In other words, monetary policy with trade openness leads to an increasing in GDP trend. one of the policy proposals of this study is trade liberalization by removing tariffs and Import restrictions.

The main objective of this paper is to assess the income elasticity with respect to input prices and measure the size of competition in the Iranian banking market in the presence of funding risk (leverage) and business risks based on the Panzar-Rosse approach.The existence of competitive financial markets is very important in the economy. Banks in the form of the organized money market are one of the main pillars of financial markets. They play different roles in financial markets. In this paper, the Iranian organized money market is investigated, including 18 banks operating in the period of 2007-2014. The results suggest that the banking market of the country is closer to the monopolistic competition during the studied period and the value of the H-statistic equals 0.77.As already stated, the Panzar-Rosse H-statistic is a measure for evaluating the competitive structure of a financial market (bank), which is equal to the total elasticties of the bank's total income with respect to the price of bank inputs. Also, using the HROE statistic, we showed that there is no relationship between the rate of return and the price of inputs, that is, the Iranian banking market in the long-run has equilibrium in the studied period. Also, the findings prove that funding risk (leverage) has a significant role in assessing the size of the banking market competition based on the Panzar and Rosse models.

The aim of this article is to analyze the effect of shocks of fiscal consolidation policy on the macroeconomic variables in Iran. In this regard by using Factor Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR) method, the effect of shock types of deficit ratio to GDP on important macroeconomic variables including total real GDP growth, inflation, private consumption growth and investment growth over the period 1363: 1 -1394: 4 is investigated. The results of research models show that the effect of fiscal consolidation policy on the macroeconomic variables are different, and it is difficult to provide the same policy tool to affect all variables. The results obtained in one-year, two-year and four-year periods indicate that the fiscal consolidation policy cannot be identified during the one-year period. But in the two-year and four-year periods, the main instrument of fiscal consolidation is deficit-deflation and deficit-free oil. It should be noted that the consumption deficit is calculated as tax revenue minus the consumption expenditure of the government divided by GDP and the deficit without oil as the total state revenue (without oil revenue) minus current expenditures divided by GDP.

This study has examined the dynamic effects of government expenditure and government shocks on production, consumption and investment variables of the private sector. The statistical population of this research is Iran and the data is a seasonal time series for the time period 1992: 1 to 2015: 4 with the fixed prices of the year 1376. The research has been carried out using statistical analysis and econometrics based on the theoretical principles of Blanchard-Perotti in 2002 and the LP model by Jorda in 2005. The results of the LP immediate responses model state that the Gross Domestic Product response to government spending shocks has meaningful and positive relations and it does not affect the tax shock in short term decreasing run also in long term run. Following these results, the effects of government expenditures on private sector investment in the short term run are decreasing and it has positive and significant effects in long term runs, and the effects of tax shocks on private sector investment are decreasing and significant. The results of the private sector responses to government expenditures and tax shocks are also positive and significant.

In this study, we used a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model and then we evaluated and compared the welfare performance of the four macroeconomic policy-making regimes- standard policy regime, generalized policy regime, the macro-prudential policy-making regime, and combined monetary and macro-prudential Policy regime. For this purpose, we used the data of Iran's economy during the period 1990: 1 to 2014: 4. The results of examining the optimal policy coefficients calculated using optimal simple rule (OSR), showed that the optimal policy is the policy in which policymaker have more importance to controlling and stabilizing the inflation so that achieving output stability can be in the next priority for the policymaker. Also, the macro-prudential policy-making regime would lead to a significant reduction in inflation and output volatilities and this policy-making regime would improve welfare status in Iran economy. In addition, the welfare performance of the combined monetary and macro-prudential Policy regime, generalized policy regime, and standard policy regime are ranked in second, third and fourth place, respectively. In the following, we have compared the welfare performance of macro-prudential policy regime and the combined monetary and macro-prudential Policy regime in a situation where the financial shock was the only shock to the economy. The results showed that under these conditions, it is optimal for policymakers to use the macro-prudential tool aggressively.

One of the main goals of monetary policy is price stability, and in this framework is one of the most successful approaches introduced in recent decades of inflation targeting. In this paper, factors influencing inflation targeting such as central bank independence and transparency, inflation uncertainty, Minimum nominal wages, monetary base, and exchange rate in Iran for the time period of 1978-2017 were investigated. First, we calculated the Central Bank independence by using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and then, we investigated the factors affecting inflation target. The results showed that central bank independence and transparency and commitment to accountability had a negative and significant effect on the inflation gap from the target inflation. Minimum nominal wages, monetary base, exchange rate, the uncertainty of inflation have a positive effect on the inflation gap of the target inflation. Therefore, in order to achieve the inflation target, the preconditions for the adoption of this monetary policy should be provided. Furthermore, since the exchange rate is one of the variables that influence the inflation rate and has a major impact on the inflation rate of the country, so having a trading and exchange rate policy can have many results on achieving inflation goals.

Social capital can be considered a set of existing norms of society, which reflects the people’s trust in state institutions and each other. People's confidence in the government affects their decision to pay taxes. Social capital is an index that measures this trust.  The purpose of this study is to test the effect of social capital on tax revenue in provinces of Iran during the period from 2007 to 2015 and for this, the Panel Data method has been used. The innovation of this paper introduces a new way of calculating the social capital index of Iranian provinces. For this purpose, after examining the use of variables and methods for calculating this index, a method has been selected that seems to be compatible with the conditions of the Iranian provinces.  To do so, the Fukuyama method has been used, which is a way of measuring the absence of social capital. The results of this research show that GDP per capita and Gini coefficient have a positive and significant effect on tax revenue of Iranian provinces and three variables, per capita agricultural value added, unemployment rate and social capital index have a negative and significant effect on tax revenue of Iranian provinces.

Despite the importance of the relationship between financial system stability, energy consumption, economic growth and Environmental quality in economic policies, in economics literature in the country has not been examined. For this purpose, for this purpose, in this study is an endeavor to examine the impact of financial stability, renewable and non- renewable energy consumption and economic growth on Environmental quality (co2 emission) in Iran.  Autoregressive distributed lag bounding test has been used to estimate the short run and long run relationship between these variables, in the framework of the multivariate time series model, over the period 1359-1395. Also, Toda-Yamamato causality is employed to investigating causality relationship between these variables. The results indicate that financial stability have no significant impact on environmental quality in Iran, while economic growth, population density and non-renewable have a negative and significant impact on environmental quality. In addition, the results show a positive and significant impact of renewable energy consumption on improving environmental quality in Iran. Also, the results support the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis during the underlying study period in Iran considering the variables of financial stability and energy consumption. According to the results, a set of financial, economic, demographic and energy supply policies is necessary to reduce the negative impacts of Environmental pollution by policymakers.