پژوهشنامه اقتصاد انرژی ایران
پیاپی 28 (پاییز 1397)

The present article adopts the new approach to fiscal policy in the commodity (oil) exporting developing countries to avoid the "Dutch Disease" phenomenon and instead guide the economy toward "Dutch Vigor" through “sustainability and scaling up of public investment”. This approach results in greater stability of the real exchange rate and economic growth. We cast this issue in the context of a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) for the Iranian economy. Three fiscal rules are used to allocate oil revenues for saving, current government expenditures, and government investments. The allocation process is done in two stages. First, the share of oil revenues to a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) is determined. Second, the remainder is allocated between current and investment expenditures. We look for a smooth public investment path. By estimating the structural parameters of the model, the share of SWF, current, and investment expenditures that are consistent with the objectives of sustainability and higher investment scale can be measured. Comparison of the results of simulations of the model show that a smooth public investment path and saving in SWF combined with central bank sterilization of the money base, due to increases in the net foreign assets, not only contributes to sustainability of investment and reduced real exchange rate volatility, but also helps the monetary authority to pursue its objectives.

The efforts of oil importing countries to transfer from fossil fuels to non-fossil fuels and the feasibility of commercial exploitation of unconventional oil and gas reserves can jeopardize the security of demand for crude oil by exporting countries. . In this study, by calculating the oil demand risk index from OPEC member countries during the years 2000-2014, the relationship between this variable and the price of oil by investing in the upstream sector of the oil industry of these countries during the years (2000-2012) Using panel data model with random effects has been investigated. The results show that the effect of the index of risk of demand for oil exports on investment in the upstream sector of the oil industry is negative and this effect is significant. Therefore, given the coefficient of the risk index of demand for oil exports, it can be concluded that a percentage change in the risk of demand for oil exports makes up 0.51percent of investment in the upstream sector of the oil industry in the opposite direction. In addition, the effect of oil prices on investment in the upstream of the oil industry is positive, so that a 1percent change in oil prices changes 1،12percent of investment in the upstream sector of the oil industry in the same direction.

The purpose of the present study is to examine two hypotheses implying the importance of the resource rent and the governance quality interactive effect on determining energy intensity. Based on the first hypothesis, the resource rent (governance quality) independently increases (decreases) the energy intensity, while according to the second one, the energy intensity is affected by the interaction of the two mentioned factors and in this line, the final effect of the resource rent and the governance quality on the energy intensity may be strengthened or weakened. These hypotheses have been tested by employing GMM for 58 fuel exporting countries including Iran during the time period 1998-2015. The results confirm the hypotheses and verify the vital role of the governance quality in affecting the rent on the energy intensity. The findings of this paper indicate that the independent impact of the resource rent and the governance quality on the energy intensity is positive and negative, respectively. Furthermore, based on the interactive effect, the positive impact of the resource rent becomes weaker while improving the governance quality. On the other hand, the effect of the governance quality on the energy intensity is negative even in the presence of the resource rent that shows the essential role of this factor in determining of the energy intensity.

One of the important issues in the energy economy for policy making is the proper understanding of energy demand and the correct estimation of price and income elasticity. So far, extensive efforts have been made to estimate the elasticity of the energy demand in Iran, but the problem of the asymmetry of the demand dynamics and the change in the coefficients of the model during the boom and recession have been less widely considered. Therefore, in the present paper, considering the threshold error correction model, the dynamics of energy demand in Iran during the period of 1978-2014, is estimated with the consideration of the difference in the recession and economic boom. The results of this study indicate that there are two different regimes in energy demand dynamics in Iran. In recession, price and income elasticity of demand as well as the speed of adjustment is lower. While at the time of the boom, the flexibility of the demanders for reaction was greater, and so the price and income elasticity and speed of adjustment were higher. On this basis, although energy demand is inelastic at the time of the boom and in recession, and hence the implementation of pricing policies cannot be effective on demand, the effectiveness of these policies can be greater during the economic boom than the recession.

Given that economic growth is one of the main goals of many of the economic policies of governments, and these policies can have side effects, such as environmental damage, attention to factors that improve the performance of the environment is important. In this study, the effects of variables such as energy intensity (as one of the common variables of energy efficiency), use of chemical fertilizers, human development index and industrial value added, on the environmental performance index for the two groups of OPEC and OECD countries have been investigated using dynamic panel data approach during 2007-2014. The results showed that the increase of variables such as consumption of energy intensity, consumption of chemical fertilizers and industrial value added would decrease the EPI, so that the increase of one unit in the energy intensity variable will result in a decrease of 0.019 and 0.029 units in the environmental performance index in OPEC and OECD countries. According to the results of the study, it is possible to reduce environmental pollution by adopting policies such as implementing stringent regulations for environmental pollutants and limiting the use of energy, along with economic growth.

The formulation of effective energy efficiency (reducing the energy intensity) policies requires study of the factors affecting energy intensity. The final consumption of energy in the manufacturing sector of Iran has grown significantly in recent years. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors affecting the energy intensity in the manufacturing industries of Iran, especially the effect of government expenditures and foreign direct investment on the energy intensity in these industries and controlling the spillover effects between provinces using provincial panel data of Iran from 2000 to 2014. Based on Panel (Robust) LM, Wald and LR tests, Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) has been used to investigate the spillover impact effects of energy intensity. According to the results, energy prices, private ownership and government capital expenditures have a negative effect on energy intensity, while export-value added and capital-labor ratios have a positive impact on energy intensity. Foreign direct investment also did not have a significant effect on energy intensity. These results call for greater attention to the adoption of higher production technologies in investment and the role of the government in energy intensity changes. The results indicate possibility of using neighboring enrichment policies to increase energy efficiency.