فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
سال پنجاهم شماره 1 (بهار 1398)

The purpose of this study is to examine how the transfer price of chicken meat in Iran. For this purpose, weekly prices statistics for chicken slaughter chickens at a fast and soy meal prices in 2007-2012 have been used. Note that the time series variables are non-linear, linear models cannot be used to test the transfer price. Therefore, nonlinear models such as Markov switching models or threshold models utilize. Due to the flexibility of the Markov switching model and that, the regimes transition is determined probability by exogenous, Markov switching model have been used in this study. Results of model selection (MSMAH (3)-AR (2)) with three regimes (lower prices, light lower prices and higher prices) and two interrupt indicates that all variables are significant. Price transmission is Asymmetric and rising in the prices of production inputs faster than reduce in the prices of production inputs being transmitted to the price of poultry meat. Chicken meat prices are likely to be reduced by 46%, probably 71% of the price of chicken increases, and the prevailing economic regime is light lower regime that prices probably will decreases slowly 90% in the price of chicken.

One of the issues faced by policy makers of the agricultural sector is determining the production strategy of the country as well as choosing between either relative advantage or self-sufficiency as a strategy for producing the crops in agricultural sector. The relative advantage strategy is based on economic principles, and on the other hand, the self-sufficiency in strategic agricultural crops, although it is an uneconomic goal, But it is politically important. In this research, the factors affecting the cultivated area of rain-fed barley, irrigated barley, rain-fed wheat, irrigated wheat, irrigated corn, sugar beet, cotton, potatoes and onions with guaranteed prices will be assessed during the period 2006-2014 in the form of a dynamic panel econometric model using Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimator. The results showed that variables of guaranteed price and lag in cultivated area had a positive and significant effect, but the production cost variables had a negative and significant effect on cultivated area of strategic crops. According to the results, with a 1% increase in the guaranteed price, it is expected that the cultivated area would increase by 0.135%, provided that other conditions are constant. Also, 1% increase in production costs per ha would result in a 0.14% decrease in the cultivated area if other conditions to be constant.

In recent years, the Dehgolan plain has been faced by a sharp drop in groundwater and land subsidence due to the drought and over-harvesting of water resources. Hence, one of the most important water management practices is management of cultivating pattern that has more importance in drought situations in order to reduce water super-crisis. This plain with an area of 62.4 thousand hectares and the coordinates of 10' 470 to 44' 480 eastern longitudes and 00' 350 to 32' 350 northern Latitudes is at the eastern of Kurdistan province. This research was designed to develop an optimal cropping pattern (wheat, barley, alfalfa, onion, potato, clover and sainfoin) for under low water conditions. Moreover, this paper presented an optimal irrigation program for maximizing the gross profit of the farm. For this purpose, data from the crop years of 2016-2017 was used as input of Positive Mathematical Programming Model. The results showed that in the optimum conditions for plant production, the amount of water saving in the first to third scenario was 22.1%, 30.5%, and 35.5%. On the other hand, the gross profit of the farm decreased 4.6%, 9.3% and 14.8% respectively. Consequently, it can be said that applying irrigation policy in stages of growth of products that are less susceptible to dehydration results in farmers to select a cultivation pattern that has high economic benefits compared to cultivating other product.

The purpose of this research is to evaluate the efficiency of grape harvesters in Sistan region using non-parametric methods. Measuring the efficiency of grapevine and comparing their performance play an important role in improving their level of efficiency and productivity and provide support for planning the exploitation of this product in Sistan. One of the common methods of measuring efficiency is data envelopment analysis. This method, despite its advantages, is not suiteble to measuring efficiency when the number of decision-making units is few. Therefore, using the window envelopment analysis approach, the number of decision-maker units is increased and the efficiency of the users can be well measured. In this research, using windouw data analysis in the period of 2011-2016, the efficiency of Sistan grapevine will be determined. According to the results obtained regarding the efficient or inefficient exploiters, Zabol and Hirmand and Zahak have a yield of less than one that indicates inefficiency in grape harvesting. Also, according to Malmquest index, the average of total productivity changes for Zahak city is 1.05 during the mentioned period. One of the most effective factors in total productivity changes has been technological changes. It is suggested that new technology (gardener integration and new irrigation) be used in agriculture to increase the efficiency and productivity of grape product in the region.

Since wheat is an important and strategic commodity, planning and managing its supply chain is also important. Yearly, million tons of wheat are purchased from other countries whereas food grain was the main imported community into the country in 2014. On the other hand, wheat and its products are considered among the highest good transportation in the country.  In this regard, this study presents optimization model for bread flour supply chain network design with the aim of strategic decisions on imports and tactical decisions on allocation. In addition, in spite of the most presented papers in this area, in this paper bread flour supply chain is integrated with attention to current capacities to produce flour. The model determines that in which months, what amount of the wheat should be purchased and transported from which country and through which point of import were sent to which province. Also, the stock size of the wheat in provinces and the inter-provincial transportation of wheat and flour produced in every province and its movement between provinces was determined The numerical results of the model and sensitivity analysis experiments along with important managerial insights were brought.

Observing aflatoxin in Iranian pistachio from time to time and continuing substitution of U.S. pistachios instead of the Iranian one in the German market suggests that changes in the preferences of German consumers may have occurred against Iran's pistachios. The present study seeks to test this hypothesis. Given that, data on imports of pistachios from Iran and the United States during the period of 1988-2015 have been examined using a nonparametric approach based on the weak and strong axiom of revealed preferences. In addition, the K-W test has been used to test the significance of the observed violations. Results showed that, structural changes have occurred in the preferences of German consumers against Iranian pistachios. Additionally, the main reason for the observed preference changes roots in the health considerations by the German consumers. Hence, it would be difficult for Iranian exporters to regain the German market. Ensuring the continuity of healthy pistachio production and its guarantee by the official health authorities may help to restore the German market to Iranian pistachio exporters.

Dairy cows are very sensitive to heat stress caused by climate change, and this directly affects the efficiency and profitability of these farms. Despite the importance of this issue, economic studies that analyze the relationship between the efficiency of dairy farms and climate change are very limited. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on the cost productivity of dairy farms. The information of 16 main production provinces in 1990, 1993, 2000, 2007, 2013 and 2016 was used and the stochastic frontier cost function was estimated by considering THI index. The result indicates that the average cost efficiency of dairy farms is about 0.70 and its highest and lowest values are 0.78 and 0.50 for east Azerbaijan and Esfahan provinces respectively. Also, the changes in the THI index have a negative and significant effect on cost efficiencies in the studied provinces. Therefore, it is not necessary to consider genetic selection for raising milk production in the breeding policy, but also its adaptation to climate conditions.

The dust phenomenon, along with other climatic phenomena affects the agricultural sector, income and welfare of farmers. In recent decades, the dust phenomenon, especially in the western Iran, has become one of the environmental problems. In this study, the effect of climatic variables and the dust phenomenon on maize farmers has been investigated in Khuzestan province during 2000-2016. For this purpose, the Ricardian model has been estimated using panel data approach. The results show that the dust variable has a negative and significant effect on Khuzestan maize farmer’s rents, so that, dust reduces rents 2381 thousand Rials per hectare per crop year. Among the climatic variables, the temperature and humidity variables affect rents significantly. That way, increasing 1˚C in temperature over its mean (32.9˚C), will increase rents by 9405 thousand Rials per hectare, and also increasing 1% in the air moisture over its mean (29.9%) will reduce rents by 2272 thousand Rials per hectare. The effects of other climatic variables (rainfall and wind speed) were not significant. The results also show that fertilizer, pesticides, and the share of surface water in irrigation have a positive and significant effect on the rents and sees, labor and total area under maize cultivation have a negative and significant effect on the rents.

Despite the capabilities of Markazi province in horticultural products, and development of related industries, the challenges such as the lack of proper strategies for development of Horticultural Crops Processing Industries, has led to failing in utilization of Value-Added Benefits of its products in the province. Therefore, the present study was conducted to formulate strategies for the development of Horticultural Crops Processing Industries in Markazi province. For this purpose, the SWOT analysis method was used in this research. The data of this survey research was collected by questionnaire and analyzed by SPSS software. The statistical population of this research include 41 managers and experts of agricultural industry and horticultural processing industry owners in Markazi province. The results showed that the high added value of horticultural industry products and the high cost of product inputs for processing industry owners were considered as the most important strengths and weaknesses respectively. The existence of national tendency at the three levels of decision-making to support of Agro-Processing industries and the need for horticultural processing industries to Capital in circulation in the working season, respectively, have been identified as the most important opportunities and threats for the development of these industries in the Markazi province. Development of Horticultural Crops Processing Industries in Horticultural production poles, modernization of horticultural processing industries and equipping them with appropriate technology and human resource empowerment in the field of horticultural industry are strategies that can development these industries in Markazi province.

Considering the quantitative and qualitative limitations of water resources, determining economic value of waters can have a significant impact on water demand and consumption management. For determine the economic value of water, a mathematical model has been developed in this research. The AWPM has been applied for Soghan in Kerman Province, Iran and water prices for each product were obtained. The highest price obtained for water from pricing method based on the type of product in the region of Sughan is 47577 (Rls / m3) for pistachios and the lowest price is 683 (Rls / m3) for potato. Also, the results of model implementation showed that the price obtained for water from methods that estimate the price of water based on the type of product and considering the factors such as the area and volume of water are more than methods that do not include product types. The features of this model are the exact calculation of agricultural water prices, the flexibility of the model and the user friendly of the model. This model can be used as a rapid and accurate tool for of agricultural water prices calculation.

The main purpose of this descriptive- correlative research was to study the effect of social capital on knowledge management using Structural Equations Modeling (SEM). The statistical population of the study consisted of 272 experts of the Agriculture Jihad organization in Alborz province. According to the Krejcie & Morgan table, a sample size of 213 was selected using a stratified random sampling method. The standard questionnaires were used to collect the data. The content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by a panel of experts. The construct validity and the composite reliability of the research instrument were tested by estimating the measurement model and they were satisfied after making necessary corrections. The data were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling multivariate technique. The results showed that social capital had a positive and significant effect on dependent variable. All in all, social capital explained about 61 percent of the variances of knowledge management in the Agriculture Jihad organization of Alborz province. Based on the findings, it could be concluded that improving social capital directly results in reinforcing knowledge management in the Agriculture Jihad organization.

Today, the aquaculture industry has a special status as one of the most important economic sub-sectors in providing food security, trade, job creation and depriving rural areas of the world. This study was aimed to determine the factors affecting sustainable aquaculture in Lorestan province. This applied research is conducted in a survey method and its descriptive-correlative research type. The statistical population consisted of all fishery farms in Lorestan province. The sample size was determined by using Cochran formula. In this study, the sustainability of aquaculture farms is derived from the combination of three indicators of sustainability (ecological, economic, and social). Results show that the level of sustainability is moderate. It was also found that there is a positive and significant relationship between the farmers technical characteristics, the extensional education activities, total sustainability, the authorized use amount of disinfectants, the number of in-service training courses, the temperature of water entering the farm, the number of training courses prior to the activity and the water cost, totally explained of 44.3% of the total variations in depended variable. In order to sustainability increase of these farms, training courses about nutrition management, cost management, disinfectant management, fish farming cooperatives, and the technical considerations of fishery experts are recommended.

This study had been conducted with the aim to investigate the role of managerial, technical and structural factors on the success and stability of plant clinics from the perspective of farmers in southern county of Tehran province. The population of study was the farmers in south of Tehran province (N = 13222). The sample size of 209 was chosen by Bartlett et al., (2001) that among the collected questionnaire 191 of them were useable. The data analysis was performed using SPSS20 and AMOS20 software’s. The descriptive result indicated that 73.3% and 50.3% of respondents respectively had assessed stability and success of plant clinic at moderate level. The result of investigate the factors influencing the success and stability of plant clinics by using structural model showed that the effect of all three managerial, technical and structural and institutional factors were significant on the level of success and stability of plant clinics. These factors explained 60% of the variance of plant clinics level of success in stability agricultural activities as well as 47% of the variance of plant clinics in their stability level among the respondents.

This two-phase research aimed to identify and prioritize alternatives of commercialization of university agricultural research. By a three-round Delphi study, the first phase was conducted in order to identify alternatives and criteria of alternative mechanisms for commercialization of university agricultural research. Using AHP, 6 alternatives and 8 criteria of commercialization of university agricultural research were prioritized in the second phase. Respecting these alternatives and criteria, a decision making tree was outlined. Data was collected through pair wise comparison 15 questionnaires filled by a sample of experienced agricultural faculty members and Expert Choice software used to analysis data. Based on the relative weight, the alternatives prioritized as: (1) Joint venture between university and industrial and private sector for developing and commercial exploiting of university research and technology, (2) Setting up a firm for commercial exploitation of university research and technology (Spin off), (3)Sale of intellectual property rights arising from university research, (4)Licensing patents arising from university research, (5) Delivering engineering and technical services and, (6) Setting up a firm by faculty members for commercial exploitation of university research and technology (start up or Spin out).

The present paper was done by using of survey method, field studies and determining strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats method (SWOT) to provide strategies for sustainable development of tourism in rural areas of Kermanshah province. For this purpose, at the first, the internal and external factors affecting on rural tourism management in Kermanshah province were identified and in the next step, the QSPM matrix was analyzed and formulated. The validity of the research tool was confirmed by the experts and its reliability was calculated by the Cronbach's alpha coefficient. The survey population included 50 persons of experts and managers of the Cultural Heritage and Tourism Organization of the Kermanshah province, that 17 person of them were purposely selected. Findings of the research showed that among the four strategies in order to develop rural tourism from the point of view of statistical population, offensive strategies are the most appropriate strategy. According to the results of the quantitative strategic matrix, we can consider the following strategies in order to manage the more effective rural tourism. The priority order of strategies is based on the overall weight and weight of those in modification and motion toward sustainable development. For example, "review for optimal and objective use of tourism benefits" strategy has a high appeal in terms of impleentation of sustainable rural tourism management. Also, the results showed that according to the managers and experts views, the central strategy is a revision strategy with 3.61 score (WO).

Considering the dispersion of rural areas and the need of extension network establishment in these areas, the extension agent plicy was founded by extension deputy of agricultural ministry. This project also facilitate the extension and education services. This study was aimed to investigate the effectiveness of extension agent project in Kermanshah Township. This research is a practical research and gathering data was done in a survey way, and of course this research is categorized as an evaluation research. The statistical population of the study was extension agents in Kermanshah township in 1395 (N=443), which 205 of them were selected by Krejsi and Morgan table through stratified random sampling. A designed questionnaire was used to collect data, its validity was confirmed by academic experts and its reliability was confirmed using Cronbach’s alpha (Cronbach’s alpha for all of the goals was higher than 0.7). SPSSver21 software was used to analyze data. The results of the research showed that the project of extension agents in Kermanshah did not achieve its goals successfully, in other words its effectiveness was moderate (46.27 %). Therefore, it is necessary to take essential steps for identifying and resolving the current problems, in order to improve the effectiveness of the project.