نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 37 (بهار 1398)

In the long-run vision, the industry and mining sector is considered as the engine of continuous, stable and accelerated economic growth, but the Iranian economy has been facing exchange rate volatility over the past few decades, which has affected the industry sector. Exchange rate volatility can affect the production, investment, employment and price behavior of industrial firms from various channels. Therefore, the recognition of these channels can determine the mechanisms of the effect of exchange rate volatility on the industry sector. Accordingly, the main object of this research is analyzing the effects of exchange rate volatility on the value-added of the industry and mining sector in Iran under sanction, that the sanction is included in the research by entering the dummy variable into the model. The model is estimated using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Model for the period 1968-2017. The results of long-term estimates indicate that severe sanctions through exchange rate volatility will have a negative and significant effect on the growth of value-added of the industry and mining sector. Also, the growth rate of capital accumulation, the growth rate of the labor force, the growth rate of bank lending facilities and the growth rate of import of capital goods in the industrial and mining sectors have positive and significant effects on the value-added of the mining and industrial sectors.

Over time, countries are affected by economic, political, and social changes happening around the world. These mutually influential economic, political, and social changes among nations have called "globalization". The process of globalization has many supporters and opponents and is inevitably moving forward issue. The main question in the area of the pass-through of the exchange rate to consumer prices is to measure the role of the credibility of the monetary policy on the degree of exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in the process of globalization. In other words, whether a credible monetary policy is effective in reducing the pass-through of the exchange rate to consumer prices? The present study aims to answer the abovementioned question using the data of 32 developing countries and 24 developed countries during 1980 to 2015, using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model to examine the degree of exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices under different globalization regimes by concentrating on the calculation and application of the credibility of the monetary policy for different countries. The results of this study indicate that with the expansion of globalization process and the transition from the first regime (a regime in which countries have moved towards economic globalization to a less extent) to the second regime (A regime in which countries have a high degree of economic globalization), the degree of exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices increases and decreases in developing and developed countries (with different impacts of the degree of monetary policy credibility) respectively.

In the process of globalization, various relations, such as the development of financial relations between countries can be considered as financial globalization. Financial globalization refers to the concept of increasing global communication through the expansion of international financial and capital flows. Therefore, it can be said that any financial relationship between countries, through different approaches, leading to the expansion of global communication develops financial globalization. This study focuses on how financial integration policies affect government spending and revenues, and how the outcome of these effects will impact government deficit and public debt. To this end, this paper has compered the budget deficit of 165 countries from OECD and non-OECD members in 2015 through the matching approach using the kernel weights and propensity score. To purify the effects of financial globalization on public debt and to isolate the effects of other variables, influential factors such as per capita domestic production, government spending, taxes, and trade liberalization are considered as a match. The results suggest that financial globalization has led to an increase in the budget deficit, which can be attributed to the reduction of taxes on capital to prevent capital outflow by the governments and better access to the international financial markets to finance further expenditures.

Assessment of different aspect of the relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth seems to be necessary in order to make the appropriate economic policies. In this study, the importance and the role of financial development in the relationship between oil revenue volatility and economic growth volatility in OPEC countries will be investigated. The modeling in this research have done based on a dynamic panel model with annual data 2005-2016, and the relationship between variables is estimated by the system generalized method of moments technique. The findings indicate that oil resource abundance volatility leads to economic growth volatility in OPEC members. Also, the research shows that financial development dampens the effect of oil abundance volatility in OPEC members.

Abstract The Iranian banking sector is experiencing changes such as the expansion of private banks, the merge of several banks and non-bank credit institutions, and the bankruptcy of a number of non-bank credit institutions. Thus addressing the changes in the number of banks, by taking into account the size of the country's economy compared to other countries, can help policymakers and the banking system planners to provide structural reforms and help to design better monetary policy. In this research, an index for the number of banks has been introduced and is calculated for the 27 selected countries considering the heterogeneity of banks and the importance of the size of the economy, therefore, it is appropriate for comparing the number of banks in different countries. The result shows that the size of the Iranian banking sector is increasing in the period of study, and given the size of the country's economy, the number of banks in Iran is less than the average of the selected countries. Furthermore, the factors affecting the number of banks by using the panel data model for the 11 selected MENA countries for the period 2015-2011 were investigated. It seems that considering the average of MENA countries, the number of Iranian banks should be more than the current one.

This article provides a mathematical analysis of the formation of the long-run personal distribution income based on factor distribution in a macroeconomic structure. For this purpose, primarily with extraction, the relative factor’s share of national income in conventional macroeconomic production function showed that The factor's shares depend only on the parameter (α), not on the amounts of capital or labor or on the state of technology as measured by the parameter A. Then, in order to extraction, the Lorenz curve organized the parameters of population and economic income recipients based on the relative share of wage earners, stock returns and money interest. In the next step, using techniques of numerical analysis (Lagrange form of the interpolation polynomial), Lorenz curve equation derived based on the cardinal functions. Then we explain the integral Gini coefficient in terms of the Lorenz curve. Then we prove in a monetary system interest-based, the Gini coefficient automatically converges to one, in this condition the distribution of income get worse for wage earners and shareholders.  The results of this research are that interest-based monetary system has a negative effect on the personal income distribution.

One of the main problems of Iran’s economy is the high unemployment rate. Thus, recognizing the factors affecting unemployment is an important step to reduce the social undesirable effects of unemployment. The study investigates the spillover effects of industrialization on unemployment by using the provincial-level data for the 2006-2015 period and the spatial econometric approach. Evidence from the model estimation shows that industrial development and economic growth have a negative and significant effect on unemployment, but the effect of the population on unemployment is positive and statistically significant, as a one percent increase in industrialization and production, the unemployment rate is reduced by 0.089 and 0.098 percent respectively. The spillover effects of industrialization are negative and insignificant and this is due to the lack of fundamental development of industry in the provinces of Iran. Therefore, the development of industry in each province based on relative advantages and land-using policy, improving the quality of the educational system to empower the workforce is the effective policies for reducing unemployment.

The central banks typically respond to inflationary fluctuations and production gaps by using monetary policy tools. The financial crisis in 2007 indicated that the monetary policy of central banks and pricing tools used to stabilize the economy have not been effective. Thus central banks utilized unconventional monetary policy to achieve financial stability the index of financial conditions indicates the financial climate affecting firms and households. This paper aims to identify and analyze the channel of monetary policy transmission and estimate the effect of the index of financial conditions on Iran's economic activity during the 2005-2017 period. Then, using the forward and backward distribution in the Bayesian VAR model, the impulse variables and immediate response to the financial condition indicator in the period under review are estimated. The findings of the paper indicate that financial conditions have negatively affected GDP and private sector investment, and credit growth has played a significant role in the financial condition index.