فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال نوزدهم شماره 3 (پاییز 1398)

The purpose of this study is to estimate a “hybrid” version of the optimal monetary policy rule in Iran using the optimal control theory. To do this, it is assumed that monetary authorities solve an optimization problem with regard to the constraints of economic structure, which includes five equations of aggregate supply, aggregate demand, exchange rate, demand for money and government expenditure. First, the structural equations’ parameters are estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) and seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) methods during 1978-2016. Then, the preferences of the monetary authorities for stabilizing inflation and output, and smoothing liquidity growth are chosen with the aim of minimization of social welfare loss. The results indicate that the central bank should consider the deviation of monetary growth rate and the output gap. In addition, the optimal rule of monetary policy derived from the optimal preferences indicates that the central bank must react simultaneously to the changes in inflation, output gap and real exchange rate, in which the role of output gap is of great importance.

Financial development is one of the most important causes of economic growth in the long run. The study of factors affecting economic growth, as a key economic target, is of great importance. In this paper, the effect of financial development on the economic growth is studied in Iran during 1989 to 2016. In order to increase the accuracy and flexibility of results, this paper uses the Time Varying Parameter Factor Augmented VAR (TVP-FAVAR) model, which makes possible to change coefficient and to contribute the individual variables at any point of time. First, the latent variable for financial development is estimated in the Iranian economy. Then, a model is specified including the variables of liquidity volume, oil revenues, economic growth and financial development. The results of the impulse- response functions show that a shock to the financial development has a positive effect on economic growth during the period under study. In addition, the shock from oil revenues only leads to an increase in economic growth over the short term and adjusts over several years, while the liquidity shocks have no significant effects on economic growth in most years.

Households need to have a smooth level of consumption in order to maximize their utility. Among the factors influencing consumption smoothing are: the existence of a perfect capital market, lack of liquidity constraints and access to financial resources, so that individuals are able to borrow and lend in order to prevent their income and consumption fluctuations. This paper attempts to investigate the excess sensitivity of household consumption with emphasis on liquidity constraints in Iran using panel data related to two recessionary periods of 2013-2015 and the pre-recessionary period of 2010-2012. The results show that the excess sensitivity of consumption to current income is significant. This finding rejects the permanent income hypothesis based on rational expectations in Iran. The asymmetric impacts of the positive and negative growth rates of income on consumption confirm the liquidity constraints of households. Identification of the socioeconomic characteristics of households with higher sensitivity, especially during the recession of 2013-2014, suggests that households without access to or inadequate access to bank loans, the elderly-headed households, families headed by non-governmental employees, low-income and rural households are more sensitive to income in comparison to the other households.

This paper aims to investigate the effect of social capital on banking stability in Iran. For this purpose, a sample of 18 public and private Iranian banks is selected over the period 2007-2017, and the System Generalized Method of Moments (SYS-GMM) is used to estimate the research model. The social capital index is proxied by the ratio of the bounced checks to the total traded checks. The results indicate a significant positive impact of social capital on bank stability. Moreover, the ratio of capital to asset and GDP per capita are positively associated with bank stability, but the non-performing loans have negative effects on bank stability.

Corruption is a historical and global phenomenon, which exists in both developed and developing countries. Various cultural, social, economic and political factors affect corruption. Among these, security of property rights and democracy influence financial corruption. In this study, using a panel data system and generalized least squares method, the interactive effects of democracy and security of property rights on corruption are examined in 59 selected developed and developing countries during 2005-2014. The findings of estimations with various indicators of democracy (Polity2, FH, and Political Rights) show that whereas protection of property rights reduces corruption in any political environment, the presence of democracy in society cannot reduce corruption alone. Democracy should be accompanied by high levels of security of property rights in order to affect financial corruption negatively. In addition, while protecting property rights reduces corruption in any political environment, it is more effective against corruption at high levels of democracy.

Today, forecasting of economic and commercial variables as an important scientific field is developing, and forecasting of macroeconomic variables is of special importance for planners, policy makers and economic enterprises. The agricultural sector, as a producer of strategic products and provider of food for the growing population, has a great influence on economic, social and political decisions. Considering the importance of the agricultural sector in Iran as well as the existence of different and uncontrollable influential factors, the researchers who focus on agricultural sector’ growth, try to use methods of forecasting in order to get results close to reality, reduce the prediction errors, and design policies and plans to improve the place of this sector. In this paper, the mixed frequency data-sampling model (MIDAS) has been used to predict the growth of agricultural sector’ value added. Comparison of the model predictions with actual data indicates the predictive power of the model. This model has predicted the growth rate of agricultural sector's value added over the period 2017-2021 by 3.215%, 2.53%, 2.92%, 5.29%, and 5.99%, respectively.

The present study seeks to analyze Iran's oil extraction and export behavior within the framework of membership in OPEC as an important player in the oil market and to propose a policy for the post-sanction period. The analysis of strategic relations shows that oil economies differ in terms of the economic, demographic and petroleum components, and the need for oil revenues. Thus, these countries can be classified into two types of saver and expender, with different rates of depreciation. This typology and bargaining between the two groups largely determines the behavior of the players within OPEC. Accordingly, after designing an innovative model and estimating it during 2001-2017, the results indicate a strong and significant relationship between discount rate of oil countries with the previous components. In particular, oil market faces an increasing impatience and general tendency to accelerate oil exports in response to the emergence of shale oil and the change in oil market outlook. Accordingly, Iran's current role in OPEC seems nonoptimal, and economic, demographic and oil components indicate the need to adopt and enhance Iran's extraction capacity and recovery rates, while continuing membership in OPEC.