نشریه مدیریت بحران
سال هشتم شماره 1 (پیاپی 15، بهار و تابستان 1398)

In this study, a location-allocation problem is proposed regarding capacity factor in critical situation of an earthquake. Output is the selection of the best places for temporary shelters and optimized arrangement of the casualties in those places somehow minimizing casualties and damages. In the following, efficient allocation of the casualties to the medical centers will be discussed. Reaching these goals, a mathematics model proportionate to the problem conditions and constraints is presented. In literatures, location-allocation problem has been classified as a NP-Hard Problem. For these problems, metaheuristic algorithm were proposed. In this research, Imperialist Compeitive Algorithm (ICA) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) are used and the results comprised with each other. Based on the results of research, in such cases, ICA can be an opponent for Genetic Algorithm, because of the average of the solution obtained by this algorithm is rather better than Genetic Algorithm. However the GA convergence is faster than ICA. Case study is performed on region 3 of Tehran. Using available information of this region, the most fitted places for sheltering are extracted from GIS science and ARC GIS software. ICA is implemented to solve the problem. At the end, the number of optimized shelters and arrangement of inhabitants in these places and also arrangement of casualties to available medical centers in the region are presented.

The Iranian plateau is part of the Alpine–Himalayan orogenic belt. The region in this study includes the area located between 54.5°-59.5° longitude and 26.5°-32° latitude. This region is among the seismologically active regions in the Middle-East, and has experienced many destructive earthquakes. Seismic hazard assessment like many other issues in seismology is a complicated problem, which is due to the variety of parameters affecting the occurrence of an earthquake. Uncertainty, which is a result of vagueness and incompleteness of the data, should be considered in a rational way. The fuzzy method in this study makes it possible to allow uncertainties to be considered in this study. In this study, using fuzzy inference system, as the practice is based on uncertainty estimation of seismic hazard for the Bardsir region in Kerman province, is done. Using the results of the seismic hazard assessment to improve building design and construction is an effective way to reduce the seismic risk. Peak ground Acceleration values estimated to be for conventional deterministic method 0.41g and 0.54g application fuzzy logic system in the deterministic method, respectively.

One of the most important risks that ever has threaten human society is earthquake. we studied these ground changes after occurring earthquake in Bam by using optic and radar images. In this research we estimated amount of movement occurred in preceding area by using these Envisat satellite Remote Sensing images before and after earthquake in Bam. Also by using Indian IRS pancromatic image with 5 meter local accuracy and doing fusion techniques like HPF with Aster images and aerial photos of Bam in 2004 with Fuzzy object-based algorithm technique automatically studied building determination in this area. According to the effects of geological formations, in terms of finding appropriate places for building and construction as well as evaluate the effects of regional formations in the study area, which earthquake was occurred, 1:100,000 geological maps are used. In step analysis of research , the results from every step adapted with each other so that amount of movement through earthquake had changed between -0.19 to 0.32 and results from automatic determination of ruined buildings by And & Or operators had accuracy about 93% and 98% respectively. Correlation between ground movement and damage of buildings was evaluated by adapting these levels with each other. This correlation demonstrates linear correlation between results. Awareness of correlation between construction and building reactivity to the earthquake movements can improve urban managing and planning and decrease damages to the minimum.

One of the most important issues in disaster response phase is to supply the relief items which is needed by affected areas. The uncertainty of this demand causes many problems. This paper presents a novel robust possibilistic programming model for a routing and scheduling problem in a relief commodities distribution network under demand uncertainty. In relief commodities distribution operations, the possibility of servicing each affected area by multiple vehicles and time window constraint have been considered. The objective of the proposed model is to reduce the total time required by the relief vehicles to reach the affected areas. The fourth region of Tehran city as a case study is provided to illustrate the performance and applicability of the proposed model. Finally, to assess the robustness of the solutions obtained by the novel robust optimization model, they are compared to those generated by the deterministic mixed-integer linear programming model in a number of realizations under different test problems.

Ccurrence of Unexpected events and natural disasters and the effects of their occurrence, communities are required to do the planning necessary to meet current and reduce the adverse effects is relevant. Although in minor evens, this is experimentally possible and don’t need  to  special tools, but in the event bigger and natural disasters such as flood, earthquake, ad hoc disaster and especially war, because of the size and complexity of factors involved, do it was not possible in experimental and for decision making is need to decision making tools. The main objective of this paper is to present a model for the structure and identify the impact of factors affecting the emergency logistics so that any appropriate decisions for the activities of logistics crisis in a way adopted to make the best use of resources has been done and the highest efficiency in order to reduce the impact of disasters resulting be. Society and research sample consisted of experts in the field of logistics and analysis using the “Delphi method” and “dematel dematel technique” was conducted, the results showed, dynamism, speed, capable of sustaining support, preparation, integrity and effective communication among the elements involved, flexibility, reactivity and information Technology  are 8 main indicators affecting on emergency logistics. The results of the structuring factors affecting supply chain agility showed that the factors "IT" and "dynamism" has the greatest impact on the logistics system crisis and the "reactive" and "The sustainability of support" have the least impact and the richest are variable

Office buildings without regarding to their sub functions are some kinds of assets that because of being related to the governments and states and their important role in governing people affairs, had always been under different kinds of threats from airborne-missile attacks to terrorist near-by blast. Especially by increasing different kinds of attacks, including terrorist and non-terrorist attacks against political-bureaucratic buildings of our country, this issue has exposed more than ever. Hence, implementation of passive defense efforts in design and building steps of these buildings, is an essential issue. In this article, with considering of blast wave as the base threat, efforts have been done to identify and prioritize main architectural criteria in designing office buildings by using experts' opinion and Analytical Hierarchy Process after gathering data with library method and expert interview and filling in the questionnaire by 28 experts, records analyzing were done by AHP method. At last, after the assessments in research by Expert Choice 11 Software, building envelope, interior design and protected space, respectively were chosen as the most important criteria of architectural design of office building with passive defense point of view. So, efforts have been done in this article to write a comprehensive analyze for the most important indicators

: pre-storm proactive recovery planning is an effective tool for reduceing the time and cost of  electrical outage and resiliency enhancement of medium voltage (MV) distribution networks. This paper presents a new framework for setting proactive medium voltage feeders recovery priorities. In this method, the proactive recovery decision making and MV feeders priority setting are considered based on the comparison between different criteria including technical isuue, criticality of loads, economic and accessibility conditions. In this regard, the MV poles fragility curve and Monte Carlo simulation have been employed to predict and estimate the damage of the network. To eliminate the problem of the lack of accurate data and the uncertainties, fuzzy analytical hierarchy process is used to determine proactive recovery prioritization. In the rest of the paper, the proposed approach is applied to a test network. The results demonstrate the suitable performance of this method for determining  feeders recovery priorities especially in the less developed countries which have been facing with the lack of access to the adequate data.

The water infrastructure is a vital artery of a city and damage to this can lead to crisis. According to the records, from 2011 to 2016 on average, annually, tens of thousands of incidents occurred in Ardabil water network infrastructure. Since water infrastructures are location-based, therefore, identification of vulnerable zones of the city, in order to prevent crisis in hazardous times is essential. Such knowledge requires the use of appropriate methods of spatial analysis. Therefore, techniques such as Kernel density in GIS and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) are used for the identification of vulnerable neighborhoods. The geographic territory of this study is 44 neighborhoods of the city of Ardabil. 11,222 registered incidents in the water network of the city by the end of 2016 are used in this study. Moreover, 8 key criteria including the number of registered events, population and building density, construction activity, the quality of the road network, the physical quality of urban fabrics, age and the pressure of the city water network are used. The results show that 13.6 percent of the neighborhoods are in the zone with severe risk, 22.7 percent in the high-risk zone, 25 percent are in the zone with moderate risk and 38.7 percent are in the low and very low risk zones. In conclusion, neighborhoods 2, 4, 5, 19, 28, 39 are in crisis condition and at great risk of events on the city water network and crisis such as earthquakes can damage the city.

Alborz multi-purpose reservoir dam is located in the Pashakola Babol basin in Mazandaran province. Optimal operation of the water volume stored in the dam reservoir is significant subject for managers and operators. In the rule curve prepared for Alborz dam, the purpose of flood control is not considered and rule curve was prepared only from the standpoint of properly operation for drinking and agricultural needs. According to the probable maximum flood of dam (1466.5 m3/s) and the outlets maximum capacity embedded in the dam (1183 m3/s) and lake of side spillway and fuse plug at the dam site, preparing the rule curve in flood conditions is necessary. In this study, in order to management and estimation of entering flood, a simulation-optimization mathematical model of flood was prepared which is capable of flood optimal routing for different return periods, with the goal of reducing flood damage. In case of equipping the dam basin to flood warning system in order to information of the flood time and volume, can be paid to reservoir optimal management in critical conditions of flood occurrence and reducing flood damage. The results were showed that for reducing 10000 years flood damage and PMF damage, respectively 10 and 35 hours before emptying of reservoir is needed until on the time of flood entering, the reservoir level is respectively at least 0.5 and 4 meters below the normal level.

Landslides are among the events occurring on steep slopes and are always accompanied with financial losses and lose of life. Slopes are geotechnical structures, in which slip is expected if the slope angle is not appropriately observed; So it has always been among engineers' concerns to determine the right angle for a dip in a way that not only doesn't it cause excessive excavation, but it also brings about proper stability to the structure. In road projects, especially in mountainous areas, it is necessary to create trenches in the ruggednesses located in the route of the road in order to observe the proper slope of the road. In Lorestan province, a large number of trenches has been created alongeside communication routs due to the mountainous topograghy of the area. In this paper, an occurred slippage in a trench on 35th km in Khoramabad-Poldokhtar rout has been studied by both limit equilibrium and numerical methods. The results of the modeling indicate that the landslide has not yet completely developed. And the tensile cracks in the landslide anticipate that in the absence of an appropriate stabilization of the trenches, a catastrophic event is not uncontemplated