نشریه آینده پژوهی ایران
سال چهارم شماره 1 (بهار و تابستان 1398)

Public trust in government and its future trend is one of the important issues for governments that lack of recognition and attention to its effective factors can have destructive consequences for the government over time. In this regard, the present study has tried to explore effective factors on future of public trust in government of Islamic Republic of Iran, and the analysis of their causal interrelationship network.

In this research we used Fuzzy DEMATEL technique. In order to collect data we used the viewpoints of experts which selected by purposeful sampling. After identifying effective factors on future of public trust in government from the literature, Fuzzy DEMATEL technique was used to determine the status of causal relations among these factors.

The results of data analysis showed that among the extracted factors from literature, social justice is the most fundamental factor and making constructive changes in it, can lead to more serious changes in the future of public trust in government in Iran. Also, public managers and employees' competency and transparency in government are the most important factors in the future of public trust and at the opposite point is the quality of public service.

According these results, the government must emphasize on social justice and competency and merit in applying and appointing people and do its best efforts to implement laws related to transparency in public affairs administration.

All higher education function have been rooted from in social transformations. However paying attention to relationship between university and industrial and economical institution has been more important than relationship between university and society in different levels and cultural transformation especially during more than one decade that higher education has experienced significant expansion all over Iran. It seems that the introduction of universities into different contexts has brought about cultural changes that cannot be easily overcome.The purpose of this study was to reflection the cultural cconsequences of Higher Education Expansion in Iran

This research was conducted in an interpretive paradigm with a qualitative approach and a data-theoretic approach. In this study, 54 participants from three groups of faculty members, students and social activists from three provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan, Qom and Guilan were selected by purposeful sampling strategies with maximum diversity. In-depth unstructured interviews were used for data collection and three-stage coding (open, axial, and selective) was used to analyze the data.

of the present study show that according to participants' views changing in cultural capital through 'improving education, awareness, as well as making new cultural needs', culture of transparency, accepting cultural diversity, changing on fertility trend, cultural defeating, cultural deconstruction, changing in cultural needs without answering as well as changing in female life style, is the most significant cultural transformation in the given context.

Considering the cultural consequences and their footprint on women's lifestyles transformation, changes in social norms, new cultural demands, and some new needs which are rooted in new world, challenges to past traditions and new world-related values and factors are some important sources that should be considered more than ever.

The aim of this paper is to emphasize the importance of the foresight as a new paradigm in urban planning. In order to highlight this goal, in addition to pointing out theoretical perspectives and paradigmatic developments, Tehran's foresight activity findings also confirm the importance of foresight.

In order to identify the major impacts and essential drivers, methodologically, an environmental scanning model based on specialized panels (with a presence of 210 participants), internal foresight experiences, and a comprehensive understanding of national trends were used. In the next step, using the Delphi method and cross-effects analysis, key factors were identified.

The social and widespread presence of women, aging and increasing life expectancy, smart life and management, diversity in life styles and climate instability will be the definitive trends of Tehran over the next 15 years. However, along with the great macroeconomic trends, the three influential factors affecting the future of Tehran, which will result in five possible scenarios, are: the status of international relations of Iran with other countries; the status of political stability and relations between key domestic actors; the development situation in different regions of the country.

Combination of different modes of driving forces, different scenarios and images of Tehran possible future are extracted. Using the foresight findings, in addition to adopting a large-scale strategy, short-term plans and plans tailored to the macro strategy can be designed and implemented with greater readiness.

As one of the most critical oceanic ports, Chabahar has attracted the attention of many countries in terms of trade and cost reduction for exporting their goods and services to Western countries in terms of low cost, distance and so on. Therefore, the primary purpose of this article is to show how strategic foresight can contribute to the development of the Chabahar Free Zone.

This is a qualitative and quantitative combination study. Firstly, using library resources and expert opinions for data collection, and finally, the interpretive structural modeling method is used to draw the model. Expert views on the model and its validity are also used.

The results show that the favorable model for the future of free zones and in this case Chabahar is composed of factors that pay special attention to geopolitical and geo-economic issues due to the specific geography of this region. The use of futures studies methods, especially environmental scanning, as well as the casual-layered analysis (CLA), depending on the climatic and geographic conditions of this region, is essential.
 

According to the literature review, no comprehensive study has been done so far on the foresight of free zones, so the proposed model as the first model for free zones foresight can respond to this vital aspect of these areas development.

In expression of Casual Layered Analysis, when Soheil Inayatullah separates four layers of future; he meets a foundational problem in social science that how human actions explained in social context? The paper works on this challenge.

In this paper, we first survey casual layered analysis briefly; then study the dialing of this method with a fundamental problem of social science with explaining of humanistic action in social context and shows the resemblance of Inaytullah methods with thoughts of Roy Bhaskar’s critical realism, Karl Popper’s falsifiability and Friedrich von Hayek’s ideas for the problem.

Our analyses and corresponds four layers to four types of future study leads to two critiques. First, Inayatullah denies the possible usage of mathematical tools for Litany layer and he somehow confirms the non-empirical views, second after surveying mathematical and philosophical idea of hierarchy in the first half of the twentieth century. this criticism and question come up in common understanding that how many facts are there that has been talked so reckless about levels of reality and future?

based on hierarchy theory, when Inayatullah separates the layers of future; he refers an index to each layer, which differs with ordinary and conventional understanding of the future.

This study aimed at using Futures methods to identify the wild cards and driver forces of the Iran-US relations in 1408 horizon. The purpose to identify the wild cards is to prevent future surprise since wild cards are events with low probability of occurrence but high impacts. The purpose of identifying the Driver Forces of the Iran-US relations was identifying the key factors in this issue, which can cause diverse futures in the two countries.

The methodology used in the present study was descriptive-analytical and data collection in theoretical part was through bibliographic sources and, in analytical part, through questionnaires. The data were analyzed by SPSS and Mic Mac.

According the findings of the present study, the military attack to Iran, the transformation in the two countries' definition of human rights, the role of Iran's geo-culture, the future role of the leadership structure in Iran, the role of pressure and extremist factions in Iran, and the impact of Iran's role in resolving the Syrian case were considered as probable wild cards.

Regarding the identified Driver Forces, they are categorized in eight topics: the role of intergovernmental bodies, countries disturbing the relations, the roles of leaders of the two countries, the future the international system, think tanks, lobbies and pressure groups, nuclear capability and Iran's missile program, the role of geography of the two countries, and the historical background of the two countries' relations.

As the handmade carpet industry has attracted many people, it can be an important factor in creating permanent and seasonal employment for the community. The challenges of the handmade carpet industry, such as poor quality of raw materials, worn-out technology, weak design and marketing, exit of labor from industry, training and competitive market space require attention to the future. This study aimed to identify the plausible scenarios of handmade carpet industry.

In this study, using Global Business Network and Dematel technique, we first identify key factors affecting the Iranian handmade carpet industry, and then develop future scenarios for this industry. Initial data were collected through interviews with managers and experts in handmade carpet industry (21 persons) and literature review. These data were analyzed using expert questionnaire and Dematel technique.

According to the results of the GBN, the final key factors are: boom or recession in consumer countries, monetary and exchange rate policies, government support facilities, foreign sanctions, marketing, use of advanced technology in raw materials production, The boom or recession in Iran, export support method and the organizing approach of supply chain stages. According to the results of the Dematel technique, the key factor of foreign sanctions has been the most influential among the key factors. Also, the way of organizing the supply chain stages  has affected more than all.

Based on these two key factors, four scenarios of Rhino, Sham Market, Rabbit Sleep and Persian Cheetah are presented for the Iranian handmade carpet industry. The present study will be used by private sector actors, government actors, investors and policy makers and local decision makers.

Competitive inclusiveness in higher education in the national and international space and the evaluation of the performance of universities based on their success in achieving output has become one of the mainstream of higher education in the country. The financial bottlenecks resulting from sanctions and the difficulty of selling oil and gas have led the government to consider a national and international benchmarking of universities and their financing, which could initiate the competitiveness process in universities and a reduction in dependency on revenues from the oil and rentier economy. In such a atmosphere, how to achieve scientific excellency at the national and international levels has become one of the main questions for policy makers. The Ministry of Health and Medical Education, in the form of "packages for the transformation of medical education" encourages medical universities to move from the status quo to the desired situation that has been anticipated in the packages of transformation. Acquiring scientific authority as one of the components of the packages is part of the mission of the medical universities of the country. Accordingly, the main Purposeof this paper is to answer the question of how scientific excellency can be achieved? The origin of scientific excellency in Iran, national and international experiences in the subject has been investigated to review the literature. We also designed a process and then a model to test the course. Guilan University of Medical Sciences was selected as a case study for the research.

The approach used in this paper is from Future Studies with insisting on “Participatory Learning and Action” method. It means that different stakeholders include: the Strategic Council members, Managers, faculty members, students, alumni and non-academic staff has been concerned in different parts of the process. The main methods are documentary studies, comparative studies, expert’s panel, brainstorming, online questionnaire (semi-Delphi) and modeling. National and international experiences were examined with documentary and comparative studies. Online questionnaire method is used to participate different stakeholders. Also expert’s panel and brainstorming is used to draw futures images, drivers, priorities, and to verify conceptual model of scientific excellency.
 

The main achievement of this paper is priority-setting for achieving the scientific authority in Gilan medical University with the participation of all stakeholders.

the study concludes that prority- setting for achieving excellency and scientific authority require the participation of all stakeholders and shaping the collective will and transforming it to discourse towards the desired future.

Over the last three decades, a quiet revolution has taken place in the way societies are to be ruled. In this line of change, the societies are in transition to good governance (GG). The exact profile of this new administration paradigm is still fuzzy, but with the passage of time, its essential characteristics become more clearly delineated. Therefore, the futuring of GG to map and clarify its comprehensive image in line with recovering the human agency and responsibility in shaping the desirable future was put on the agenda of the present study.

Having applied meta-synthesis as a modern approach in qualitative research, the present study compiles the fundamental principles, pillars, and indicators of GG as well as maps and represents GG comprehensive image.

The investigation of GG from the viewpoint of futures studies indicates that the essentials of GG converge around five principles of accountability, transparency, participation, rule of law, and efficiency as well as five pillars of civil society, government, the legislature, executive, and judiciary. Furthermore, the GG indicators, resulting from operation of principles in the context of pillars, are realized through the responsiveness towards present as well as future generations, access to information, merit-based system for elections and appointments, just legal system, clarity of decision-making procedures and standards, etc.

The futuristic reading of GG as a managerial-political theory and paradigmatic pattern donates its specific capacity in steering of modern societies as well as maintaining and improving the freedom, welfare and well-being of present and future generations.

Islam is the focal point and central point for identifying and identifying Islamic societies and governments. However, the component of religious identity in the contemporary international system, and in particular the foreign policy of Islamic states, has failed to act as a major proponent and play a central role in shaping foreign relations and interactions And at times, relying on some Islamic thought has led to divisions and even severe crises and conflicts.

The purpose of this article is to examine the role-creating barriers and the genuine function of religious identity in Islamic societies through the descriptive-analytical method, the challenges of promoting the convergence of the Islamic world in the field of international relations such as deviant currents and extremes. Consider nationalism and to answer the key question of how can the component of religion be in its true position as a major driver for the design of future interactive geometry of the Islamic world?

The basic premise is that in order to achieve future convergence in the Muslim world, it is necessary to revitalize and restore the status of a shared religious identity through solutions such as consensus-based redefinition of shared religious literature; It made it a strategic priority.

The study concludes that education and scientific synergy both at the micro level (such as the proximity of the elites of the Islamic world) and at the systemic level can enhance religious identity and convergence of Islamic societies.

Regional planning knowledge despite the many downsides in the path to theoretical and applied evolution, from last decade, relied on the interdisciplinary knowledge to synergy with other sciences to enhance its ability and impact. Social sciences, management sciences, political sciences, economics, and recent knowledge of futures studies are among the sciences that have a scientific connection with regional planning.

The research method in this article was based on the Delphi method of the experts. It has been used to evaluate the impact of futures studies knowledge on planning and development patterns.

In recent years, knowledge of futures studies has influenced on regional planning knowledge in two dimensions: approachal and technical and the link between these two domains, in addition to the theoretical and applied advances, has brought about the emergence of interdisciplinary knowledge of regional foresight. This paper tries to depict the future-oriented approach to the regional planning. By designing this topic, there is a need for greater synergy for scholars and thinkers in both fields.

results show that with a futures studies approach, the regional planning process can be reproduced and revisited  in nine successive and interlinked phases. These include identifying key forces, foresighting global coordinates for key forces, scenario writing, and extracting viable strategies.

The main purpose of the present study was to provide a model for predicting the future (efficiency and performance) of Iranian banking industry based on risk management through examining the impact of risk management dimensions (determining risk and appetite risk, formulating and executing risk strategy, internal evaluation, planning and Crisis Testing, Reporting and Transparency) on the future performance and efficiency of the Iranian banking industry.

In order to achieve the purpose of the study, managers of all banks listed in Tehran Stock Exchange were selected and studied. The causal approach was used to estimate the models and test the research hypotheses.

The results of the hypothesis testing showed that that internal evaluation, planning and crisis test had a significant effect on the efficiency and performance of banks. Also, there was a significant effect of stockpiling and risk appetite on bank performance.

The findings of this study indicate that the structure of warehousing and risk appetite is an increasing factor in the optimal performance and efficiency of banks. The banking system's structural problems must be resolved in order for the banking system to perform well and develop in the future. Therefore, the strategic proposals for resolving the crisis of the banking system, however, must go the way of resolving the structural problems. In the future, the banking system is in worse shape than it is now, and banks are not in a good position to manage risk.