فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال سیزدهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 46، تابستان 1398)

The purpose of this paper is to identify the effective factors of monetary policy on the banking system as one of the most important sectors of macroeconomics. Therefore, the effective factors of monetary policy on the banking system using the Dynamic Randomized Equilibrium Model (DSGE) and the emergence of long-run macroeconomic ratios in the 1370s and 1380s And others' studies.The results showed that with a positive shock to the interest rate, due to lower demand for loans, the lending rate and, as a result, banks' profits decrease, and due to positive oil shocks, liquidity increases, lending rates and investment increases, and the household's willingness Reduces savings, resulting in lower bank profitability. Based on the results, while considering the importance of the role of financial factors in the transfer mechanism and the intensity of monetary policy effects by policy makers, it is suggested to adopt measures to adjust the effects of economic shocks.

Recently, organizations have tended to focus on team activities, and cognitive factors such as social capital can affect the performance of individuals in this framework. In this regard, the present study examined the effect of social capital on individual decisions within the framework of teamwork. In order to achieve this goal, we came to the experimental environment and performed an examination of the effects by performing sequential and simultaneous games that were complete, static and dynamic, and perfect and imperfect. 182 students were selected from the population of students from universities of Yazd, and 2184 observations were collected. The results of the study showed that the increase in social capital of a team's players leads to increased team production, team revenue and team profits. The results also showed that people with high level of social capital are not affected by rewards, while reward changes lead to a change in the behavior of individuals with a moderate or lower social capital level.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of shocks on factors affecting financial crises in Iran's economy. In this study 62 explanatory variables were introduced into the model between 1370: 1 and 1395: 4 and, using the Bayesian averaging model approach, 12 non-critical variables that were effective on the financial crisis were identified. According to the results of the results, it can be stated that the financial crisis index in Iran's economy is a multi-dimensional problem, as variables related to fiscal policy; monetary policy and foreign exchange policy affect this index. Based on the results of the Autoregressive Vector Models Variable-Time Parameters, it was also observed that the effect of selected variables on financial crises in Iran over the course of time has had different effects and in recent years the intensity of the effect of selected variables has been strengthened. One of the fundamental solutions is that policies that reduce inflation uncertainty, such as the fiscal and monetary discipline of the government and the central bank, reduce crisis expectations by stabilizing the currency and currency markets can reduce crisis uncertainty.

The purpose of this paper is to present an appropriate model of data envelopment analysis with a network structure for evaluating the sustainability of the supply chain of cement companies present in the Iranian Stock Exchange during 2014-2015 and determine their productivity based on the Malmquist index. This model attempts to introduce sustainability criteria in the supply network with regard to quantitative and qualitative constraints as well as undesirable outputs and Through their measure of supply chain, results are more consistent with reality. Overall, the results indicate a decline in the total productivity of these companies; meanwhile, only 7 companies have maintained their performance and other companies have had a performance fluctuation.

The purpose of this study is to provide a model for financial distress predicting with real earnings management.So the redesignthe financial distress prediction model of Altman (1983) with the real earnings management variable as a predictor variable, the performance of the unadjusted model and the adjusted model in predicting of financial distress among companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange was compared.The statistical sample consists of 179 Companies during the years 2008- 2017.Data analysis and hypothesis testing were performed using multiple logistic regression.The results show that the overall accuracy of the adjusted model is higher than the unadjusted model.

In this study using panel dataset (combining the time series data related to the climatic variables of rainfall during 1986-2016 and the cross sectional data related to the base year 2015-2016) the comprehensive biophysical-economic modeling of climate and agriculture in Roodshour watershed basin was studied. In order to achieve the applied results, modeling is done by combining two parts of the biophysical (the products yield estimation model) and the economic (positive mathematical programming model) under mild, moderate and severe testing scenarios and with advanced programming in the GAMS 24.7 software environment. The results show that after year 2001, behavioral pattern of rainfall climate variable was accompanied with a decreasing trend in the Roodeshoor basin. With occurrence of the climate change resulting from rainfall reduction under mild, medium and intense scenarios, the available water resources decreased 5/75 to 13/8 percent, agricultural products decreased 3/60 to 8/54 percent and farmers' gross profit decreased 2/71 to 8/04 percent. But the economic value of irrigation water increases 5/13 to 12/7 percent ratio to base year. Finally, in order to protection of the water resources in the Roodeshoor basin and coping with the effects of climate change, Redetermination of the rate of water charge to farmers on the basis of equality consideration, fallow-lands and equipping farms to modern irrigation systems were proposed.

The key objective of this article is the test of the effect of individual characteristics in charity giving. The methodology based on descriptive researches and main tool for gathering data is questionnaire and to analyze the data R software is used. Sample include of 389 people, by proportional allocation in Regions in Mashhad.The results show that the women more than men, tend to do charitable behavior. Owners are more than tenants have charity behavior. There is significant relationship between the education background and doing charity activity. Among the income, age and employment with charitable activities is not a significant relationship. Finally, the results of mixed logit model indicate that individual motivations of charity behaviors namely altruism, warm-glow and Conspicuous Increases probability of giving, And the mean of coefficients of these variables are significant and positive.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamics of exchange rates and the role of monetary and financial policies. For this purpose, we use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) for a small open economy during the period of 1990-2016. The results show that in different scenarios there are signs of Dutch disease as a weakening of the trade sector, the strengthening of the non-trade sector, the increase in prices in the trade sector, the reduction of prices in the commercial sector and the reduction of the real exchange rate. Based on the results, active financial policies are recommended to control exchange rate fluctuations.