فصلنامه راهبرد دفاعی
پیاپی 65 (بهار 1398)

The presence or absence of armed forces in the economic fields and measuring the success of these forces is one of the topmost management issues of the country. In the present study, by presenting the arguments for and against the introduction of the armed forces into the field of economics, the problem has been presented and then by evaluating different models of economic portfolio decision making, the final model for cost effectiveness or lack of it regarding the activity of the economic firms of the armed forces has been deployed. This paper aims to provide a suitable model for evaluating the activities of the firms of the armed forces of the country. The convenience sampling method was used to collect the required data. The data collection instrument was questionnaire. Based on the discussions, 100 questionnaires were collected from available community members. In order to analyze the collected data, exploratory factor analysis, Friedman test, and AHP hierarchical analysis methods and SPSS 22 software were used. After the extraction of model, one-sample T-test method was used for model validation. The results showed that 24% of the companies in the case under study are allowed to continue their operation. The rest of the companies must be liquidated (56%), or have to obtain the required authorizations from the relevant sources (20%) to continue operating. Four factors were identified as significant factors affecting some of the complete failure of military forces in the activities of firms: a) Presence of some inappropriate systems for selecting managers (board of directors and CEO), b) presence of precipitance in selecting some areas of activity, c) extension of some military laws into the economic field, and d) assessing and monitoring of insufficient performance of some CEOs.

Prior to the deployment of Nedaja on the Makran coast, it had roles assigned to the coastal navy. But after deploying on the Makran coast, a new environment (in both domestic and foreign arena) was introduced to the I.R. of Iran navy forces. Therefore, opportunities, threats, strengths and weaknesses changed into a new environment, and the roles that NEDAJA played before did not meet the needs of the new environment. Thus, the researchers sought to develop a proper model for the development of the strategic roles of the I.R. of Iran Navy by conducting research. In this research, using a case study method, data collection was done using library and field methods, and initially outputs of resource study, interview and observation outputs led to determination of basic conceptual model of developing roles of Navy Forces. In the next step, the selected dimensions, components and indices for developing Navy roles were distributed among a sample of experts selected from the sample population. After normalizing the questionnaire, the standard questionnaire was distributed to a sample population of 80 individuals. Using qualitative and quantitative analysis tools and descriptive and inferential statistics and SPSS, KMO and Bartlett software, the collected data were analyzed. Four elements for developing roles of navy force on Macron coasts and its adjacent seas were selected under titles of military roles, police roles, diplomatic (political) roles and humanitarian roles. Also, for each component, indicators have been identified that the set of components and indices has provided the model for the development of Navy force roles.

The aim of this research was to identify and evaluate the risks (hazards) of not implementing human resources strategies in one of the military organizations and to prioritize them based on the failure mode and effect analysis. This research was a descriptive-analytical applied study with a mixed approach and the movement was from qualitative to quantitative end. Library and field methods have been used to collect data. First, by studying the theoretical foundations and interviewing senior executives and also by using risk failure structure, the risks associated with each strategy are determined. Then based on the extracted indices from the interview, a questionnaire was prepared and after proving its validity and reliability, the questionnaire was distributed among 60 specialists and experts. The collected data were analyzed at two levels of descriptive and inferential statistics. These worksheets were then distributed to a group of senior executives during a group meeting and the priority number of each risk was identified. Finally, the risk due to non-implementation of human resources strategies of the organization was prioritized using risk priority number. According to the results of the questionnaire data among 54 identified hazards, 28 risks were identified as the most important risk regarding evaluation in the failure analysis worksheet and its effects were considered as the basis of the work.

One of the major challenges regarding the security of our country is the operation of terrorist groups in Sistan &Baluchistan province. In this paper, in order to take appropriate measures to deal with the future threats of these groups, we seek to answer this question: "What are the possible scenarios of terrorist groups in Sistan & Baluchestan province in the period 2018-2028? In the present study, through consideration of theories and perspectives of 15 academic experts, political leaders and military commanders and Delphi method these possible scenarios were extracted and then they were prioritized using statistical methods. Based on the results of the research, the quantitative and qualitative increase of subversive actions, reinforcing and institutionalizing Salafist thinking and fomenting religious differences, expanding activities in both political and human rights areas, influencing members of parliament, city councils and local trustees are the most likely scenarios of terrorists groups in Sistan & Baluchistan province. Finally, based on the findings of this research, suggestions are presented in the form of military (hard) and soft (political, cultural and diplomatic) measures.

Geopolitical factors comprise all factors that influence the defense strategy of I.R. of Iran in terms of geography, politics and power. These factors are similar to the dimensions of national power and play a significant role in selecting the type of defense strategy. Therefore, geopolitical factors dictate and then a defense strategy is formulated based on it. In this paper geopolitical factors have eight dimensions: Natural, human, economic, domestic and foreign policies, military, cultural, and technological. This research is a case-field study with a quantitative approach and is of developmental-applied nature. Data collection was done using field and library methods and the statistical population included 85 individuals, using expertise analytical methods. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of geopolitical factors regarding I.R. of Iran's defense strategy. The results show 51 geopolitical components (8 natural, 5 human, 7 economic, 5 domestic policy, 4 foreign policy, 12 military, 5 cultural, and 5 scientific-technological factors). 12 factors have two roles simultaneously, i.e. the geopolitical factors of Iran have 51 components and 63 roles. In total, these 63 roles include: 34 strengths, 10 weaknesses, 13 opportunities, and 6 threats. After calculating the strategic positioning, it became clear that I.R. of Iran is in a mild offensive position regarding the field of geopolitical factors.

Turkey, as one of the actors in the West Asian region, first attempted to present a win-win game with the strategy of "zero problems with its neighbors". But, by ignoring this policy, it subsequently played a leading role in the development of West Asia and North Africa. In this study, the goals and desires of Turkey's security policy in foreign policy are examined. In the light of the above developments, this research examines the role of this country in terms of its effects on the "balance of power in the West Asian region". In this study, a qualitative and quantitative mixed method was used. The main hypothesis of the paper is that the main axis of Turkey's stances on developments in West Asia and North Africa is based on the principles of realist theory. Taking into account Turkey's goals and desires regarding developments in West Asia and North Africa, it is important that Turkish policies and movements affect developments in and near the Islamic Republic of Iran (Iraq) and its surroundings (Syria, Egypt, Tunisia and Libya) and through this passage can affect our national interests and national security. According to the research findings, Turkey viewed these developments as a valuable opportunity to advance the political and security goals and objectives of the AKP and, as a result, took an opportunistic approach towards it that has somehow become crystallized in every country. On this basis, it is hoped that the findings of this study, in addition to helping to understand Turkey's policies towards these developments, will provide the required information and data for our country's policy making towards Turkey and developments.