نشریه جغرافیا و مطالعات محیطی
پیاپی 30 (تابستان 1398)

This study has been done to evaluate the fluctuations of water level in Urmia Lake and to provide a best model for prediction the water level fluctuations. Monthly water level data for the period (1345 - 1392) was used and homogeneity was assessed by Run Test. Then the stability of mean and variance of the data was tested in order to put down the non-stability by creation a rank in series. Trend of the monthly series was eliminated by making a difference and the time series of water level was evaluated by using Box- Jenkins model and the best model was fitted. Accuracy of the model was verified based on AIC, BIC and chart analysis of autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions and ARIMA = (0, 1, 4) (1, 1, 1)12 was selected as a suitable model. The selected model was fitted then the model was tested by Analysis of residuals and confirmed its authenticity. Finally, the monthly behavior of the series was predicted for 9 years later by using this model.

Iran is located in arid area. Usually, agricultural sector can be most affected by drought. Farmers have used different strategies to deal with the phenomenon of drought. This study was conducted to identify these strategies and its relationship with the socio-economic characteristics of the farmers. The study population consisted of farmers in Shirvan County of North Khorasan Province that 350 of them were examined using survey research method. The required information was collected using a researcher-made questionnaire which its content validity was confirmed by experts. The results showed that the first priority coping strategy to drought was related to the “land reform measures” and the last priority was related to “storage solutions”. Also, “using pipe to transferring agricultural water”, “cooperation to create and develop a network of local irrigation and water supply" and "rain water harvesting using surface catchments" were the important three recommendations of farmers to combat drought in future. The results showed that age and farming experience were not significantly correlated to use of drought coping strategies. But the education level of farmers, amount of farmer-extension agent contact had positive and significant correlations with the number of used coping strategies with drought.

Without a doubt one of the main reasons for creating such chaos and instability challenges in management and in the meantime, the lack of an integrated urban management is one o. Ize the development of the city as well as the impact of growth and rural migration to the city's sphere of influence, urban management practices in this town has many problems. In this regard, this study is to evaluate the performance of Ize city's urban management in urban sustainability. The research method employed in terms of the purpose in nature is cross-sectional. The study population included citizens and urban experts (municipal council) that according to the latest census, the population of 122 013 people. The sample size is based on a sample of 383 people. The sample size of the experts was 40. To survey the views of citizens in the form of a questionnaire 5 indicators such as: socio-cultural, economic, physical-physical, environmental, political and was designed. In order to analyze the data, SPSS statistical analysis software is used in space. The results of the questionnaire, the sustainability of urban management related to each indicator, the average value is less than the significance level (sig) also confirms it. So based on the opinions of citizens in urban sustainability management indicators are at a disadvantage. The difference from the mean of indexes suggests that Sustainable urban management of moderate to low level and the current status of Ize city not liking any of the two groups of citizens and expert.

Urban development process has always been paid attention by different scholars and solving city problems has led to providing some views considering cities development. Urban sprawl is one of the city growth phases that have entered to urbanism literature from the second half of the twentieth century and nowadays it is one of the most important debates in the world. This study deals with urban sprawl measurement in Mashhad city. To measure this phenomenon based on F’ANP model, sprawl indicators have measured for 43 districts in Mashhad. The model results show that the five factors centering, density, mix use, acting space and accessibility influence the rate of sprawl in different districts of the city. The results show that the districts near to CBD have the least rate of sprawl. As the distance from the CBD increase, the sprawl intensifies, so that sprawl has occurred the most in the East, North East, North West and in the South. As one of the main reason, we can point to formation of big city blocks with industrial and military land uses and informal settlements.

The main purpose of this research is to analyze the process of land use change and evaluate the opportunities and obstacles to the progress and growth of Zabol city. For this purpose, ETM, TIRS and OLI Landsat 5,7 and 8 satellite images were selected for the period of 1395-1365.Then the indicators were extracted in two groups of internal and external factors according to Delphi experts.The results showed that in Zabol City most land use changes were made in the agricultural land area due to population increase and the need for housing and other urban needs. So, during the29 years of study, the lands constructed from 2578.10hectares in1365 reached 3419.92 hectares in1394.Also,the results of the Heldron model in Zabol City showed that around85% of the city's physical growth in the years 1365- 1394 was related to population growth and15% growth,related to the horizontal and sparse growth of the city, which reduced the density Gross population and an increase in per capita gross urban land. Zabol city was weak in terms of internal and external factors, but its severity was higher in external factors,but due to serious threats,Zabol city was in weak condition and its strategy was defensive. Thus, it can be said that the development of Zabol in the year1394-1365 is unbalanced, which indicates the landless changes in agricultural lands that need to guide,grow and develop the city with desirable programs.In other words,in addition to meeting the requirements of housing and other services needed by cities,they would prevent unnecessary construction.

Representation of the city and redefinition of time, space, space in a variety of media such as cinema due to the involvement of the unconscious mind and thought of the viewer can play an important role in shaping the image of the city, its recognition and indexes, and even the definition of norms and abnormalities of the urban pattern of behavior. To play The purpose of this research is to answer the main question of how the qualities of urban spaces are presented in Iranian films. The research method is qualitative and descriptive-analytic and content analysis method is used. Using the texts of the urban area, the criteria for environmental quality were summarized in a table and the criteria in the film in your world have been analyzed and evaluated. Four criteria for analyzing films, physical, visual, perceptual, functional, as The findings of the research were formulated and, finally, the most important factors influencing the quality of the spaces were the explanation and the film was presented as a successful example in presenting these components. Attention to these principles can, through reinforcing the perceptions of the audience, enhance the meaning of space and make sense of space in the minds of urban space users.

Problem statement The rapid increase in urban dispersal has become a major concern in many countries. Because this rapid dispersion of harmful effects in the environment is worthless, so one of the most important issues facing urban development is its expansion. Aims Physical extension and inappropriate pattern of urban areas in the chain link with reciprocating interactions causes the natural lands of Ahwaz to be faced with a serious threat. In this regard, the present study seeks to investigate the physical development of the metropolitan city of Ahvaz during the period from 1360 to 1395, and then predict its extension in the 1400 horizons. Methodology The present research is applied in terms of the purpose of development and in terms of descriptive-analytical methodology based on library studies and field studies. In order to analyze the data, the theoretical foundations and research literature, principles and criteria were first designed. Considering the different coefficient and the effect of each criteria and indicators in the expansion of the metropolitan area of Ahwaz, the ANP-DEMATIL combination method was used for determining the weights. Then, the principles and criteria are considered to be extracted and identified, which were processed using satellite imagery over 5 years using the software (ENVI).

The use of wind power plants is considered as one of the most important ways of generating electricity using renewable energies. The environmental impact of the environment is low compared to other methods and the potential for extensive exploitation, including the benefits of using wind energy in electricity production. In this regard, it is necessary to find the optimal location for deploying equipment and facilities to exploit existing and potential potentials. The purpose of this research is wind power plants site selection in Fars province using AHP and ranking the spatial options using the Vikor method. In this study, we tried to prioritize the location of wind power plants based on effective technical, environmental and socioeconomic measures using the AHP decision making model. At first, the required data were collected and prepared in the GIS environment. Then, using AHP method, the two criteria were compared and then weighted, and finally, using the Vikor method, the priority was drawn between the final locations. The results of this research show that among the criteria in the research, the technical criteria (wind speed, wind stability and wind density) are more important and have a higher weight (0.731), and the wind speed 0.594) is the most important factor. The results of the Vikor model showed that the northern and eastern regions of the Fars province have a good potential for wind energy. Abadeh, Eqlid and Neyriz are the right places to build a wind power plant in other parts of the province.