فصلنامه مدیریت بحران و وضعیت های اضطراری
پیاپی 34 (زمستان 1396)

Security is a social product resulting from the cooperation and support of community members, authorities, NGOs, and other components of the society with security officials. Meanwhile, the role of Basij of the neighborhood, as a part of the community and an outstanding support for establishing and maintaining security is significant. This research is mainly concerned with investigating the role of the Commanders of Resistance Basij, as a part of the governance, within the community-centered system in maintaining the security of Afsariyeh district. This research follows a qualitative content analysis method conducted by interviews. As much as 60 selected statements, 40 concepts, and 8 categories were identified, which contained the opportunities and threats. The results of this research included the identification of the opportunities and threats as well as the consequences of each of them, and the ways to deal with threats including increasing insights, persuading, creating awareness, building capacity, etc. for the commanders of Basij.

This research is intended to identify and prioritize the components of the Islamic Republic of Iran's military power and authority in the management of the crises in the West Asia from the views of the senior military commanders in Kerman province. The applied research is descriptive and follows survey method. The statistical population of the study includes senior military commanders in Kerman province containing15 people. The entire statistical population is selected to be studied in this research. Data collection tool is a paired comparisons questionnaire. In order to prioritize the components of military power and authority, the sign test, one of the tests of the nonparametric hypothesis, was employed. In the next phase, on the basis of the identified indicators and making use of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) questionnaire, the factors influencing the evaluation were prioritized. SPSS software was applied for data analysis and testing the hypotheses. Furthermore, Expert Choice software was used to weight and prioritize the identified effective factors. The results indicated that seven factors affect the military power and authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the controlling West Asian crises. Optimizing these components may increase the military power and authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Specialized and faithful manpower was the most important component with a total weight of 0.124, and the most important criterion was having a strong command system.

As the challenge of Salafism has endangered the religious and self-identity ​​of the youth in Sanandaj, the role of the cultural centers and the agents of mosques, including Basij organizations at mosques and neighborhoods, has become quite significant in fighting this deviant attitude. The founder of this idea is Ibn Taymiyah whose idea was suppressed from the 13th to the 19th centuries, but arose again in less than a century ago and was introduced in the Islamic society. However it was opposed by the scholars of Islamic faith. Hence, the role of Basij of mosques and neighborhoods in controlling the spread of religious Salafism in Sanandaj is considered in this research. This descriptive-analytical research follows a survey method. This study, including a statistical sample of 155 people, investigates the role of Basij of mosques and neighborhoods in controlling the spread of religious Salafism in Sanandaj through a researcher-made questionnaire. It includes three independent variables of role playing of “the programs of the Basij of mosques and neighborhoods", "the role of executives of Basij and mosques", and "the role of Mamustas and clergymen". These variables were tested by t-test1. The results indicated that all three hypotheses are confirmed and their role in controlling the crisis of religious Salafism in Sanandaj are significant.

Scenario writing is a type of futurology research method in which scenarios narratively describe possible events that are likely to occur in the future. A scenario is a combinations of imaginative and realistic forecasts of probable future events. In each scenario project, a portfolio of scenarios is usually designed, and then the mean of scenarios is taken as the most likely future event. Developing a scenario is a different type of research method. Scenarios are possible only by employing other futurological research methods. In other words, scenarios are a way to sum up the results of other futurological researches. In many cases, the main purpose of the futurological projects is to design several scenarios for the realization of a desirable future. Hence, the present study aimed at investigating a possible scenario of Kurdish ethnic divergence in the weakening social security in Kurdistan province. A statistical population of 10 experts and university professors were selected by purposeful sampling to participate in semi-structured interviews. Finally the collected data was coded. Applying statistical frequency method, the researchers proposed three probable scenarios of ethnic divergence including "intellectual divergence through media warfare" with a frequency of 6, the “supporting Kurdish opposition groups for breaking out chaos” with frequency of 3, and “internal collapse” with frequency of 2, which were the most probable scenarios according to the expert.

Social capital and the phenomenon of ethnicism are deeply connected to the level of ethnic-orientation. Likewise, the level and depth of ethnicity depends on different factors and situations. Therefore, it is critically important to categorize and quantify the ethnic interests in achieving ethnic convergence. This research is aimed at investigating the relation between concepts of ethnic convergence and social capital in West Azerbaijan province. This applied research is conducted through descriptive-analytical method. The sample consists of 100 competent experts in Orurmieh studies. Research indicators include five main components of social capital and seven indicators of ethnic convergence. The results indicated that the extent of social capital among the subjects was at a moderate to low level (2.51). However, ethnic convergence was at a higher level (2.7) in the population, more appropriate than social capital. The main outcome of this study revealed that there is a positive and significant relation between social capital and ethnic convergence. Finally, some strategies were presented in order to achieve ethnic convergence in West Azerbaijan province by using social capital.

The crisis in the relationship between India and Pakistani has been going on for years. It has intensified in some periods, including the nuclear tests in 1998. China is an international actor that has always tried to overlook this crisis due to reasons of national interests and security. Indeed, China has historically sought to maintain a moderate approach to the security crises between India and Pakistan. China has regularly supported eliminating the tensions during the crises, and has encouraged diplomatic negotiations. However, though impartial with regard to the crises, Beijing has neither negated nor concealed its interest in supporting Pakistan due to its long-standing geostrategic link with it, which is China's relying point with regard to its balancing strategy on India. Yet, in the recent years, Beijing has generally been trying to play its role, as a third party, with Shuttle diplomacy to build peace in Indian-Pakistani relationship. This descriptive-analytical research is intended to investigate the role of China, through a causative approach, in the crisis between India and Pakistan.