پژوهشنامه اقتصاد انرژی ایران
پیاپی 30 (بهار 1398)

Today many developing countries face the problem of brain drain that could be affected by oil rents in oil-exporting countries. Natural resources aggravate rentier behavior and affect the welfare of elites and finally increase brain drain. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the nonlinear effects of oil rent on brain drain in oil-exporting countries (OPEC) during the period 2000-2016. For this purpose, the dynamic threshold panel method has been used. The results indicate the nonlinear effects of oil rents on brain drain. When the ratio of oil rents to gross domestic product is lower than 41.4%, the increase in oil rents has a positive significant impact on the brain drain in the OPEC countries and when the ratio of oil rents to gross domestic product greater than the threshold value, increasing oil rents will cause brain drain more than before.

Considering the source of oil shocks, this study aims to investigate the effect of oil price shocks on the key macroeconomic variables of the OPEC countries. Even though oil shocks are originated by various factors, political risks are of great importance. Using structural vector-autoregressive model, we disentangled oil shocks and studied their impacts on OPEC’s GDP growth and inflation, using a Panel-VAR for 1994:1-2016:4. Our results highlight that among oil shocks, the oil price shocks stemming from the political risk of OPEC countries have the most significant impact on the OPEC's economic growth, while not having any significant impact on inflation of the countries. We also learned that oil supply shocks could also boost economic growth and increase inflation rates in OPEC countries, although these increases are not significant. Other oil price shocks will only lead to higher inflation in these countries without affecting OPEC's economic growth.

Environmental taxes, including carbon and energy price taxes, are one of the most crucial means of market-based approach of reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and are widely used around the world In the present research, the effects of enforcing these two tax policies are assessed in two scenarios of redistribution and non-redistribution of the overall tax incomes between households (in sum, four scenarios), based on the CGE model. These two taxes make different impacts on relative prices of energy carriers. Accordingly, they have different economic effects which remained unexamined in previous researches. The results of present study, therefore, would make a clearer anticipation of the future policies effects, which will be implemented to meet the international environmental commitments of Iran. The results of simulations indicate that both taxes lead to emission reduction but carbon taxes are more efficient than energy taxes, because the former requires less amount of taxes, whereas the level of emission reduction is the same. If there’s no redistribution of tax incomes, both kind of taxes decrease the welfare and real consumption budget of households, but in case of redistribution, these indexes will increase. In all scenarios, GDP, decrease and consumer price increase will increase in different amounts and employment in 3 scenarios increase. Based on the findings of present research, enforcing the carbon tax policy, concomitant to tax incomes redistribution, are among the appropriate policies designed to reduce the greenhouse gas emission and meet the international commitments of Iran.

Given the dependence of industries and firms and the economy of a country on the continuous supply of energy, it is also important to provide an index and overall measure for evaluating the sustainability and sustainability of energy supply. Investigating the security of electricity supply using a variety of indices has been evaluated and evaluated, depending on the choice of indices and how these indices combine with different interpretations and also an assessment of the stability and security of its provision. It will be for the decision makers and policy makers to adjust to the fluctuations. In this study, using the composite index, it has been attempted to evaluate and measure the security of electricity supply nationwide. In this study, using dependency indices on energy import, energy consumption intensity, gross domestic product per capita, national economy dependence on electricity, Herfindahl-Hirschman index and Shannon Wiener index, as well as weighted average method, combined security index The power supply has been measured. The results for the period 2001 to 2016 show that the overall security of electricity supply in Iran was moderate, but over the past 16 years, the size of the electricity supply has been moderately reduced

In this paper, the Panel SVAR model has been utilized on monthly data (2006-2018) to study and compare the direct and indirect effects of oil shocks on real price changes of selected agricultural products in oil exporting and importing countries. The results show that oil shocks, besides direct effect, indirectly affect the prices through aggregate demand, currency and monetary shocks. The response of selected products to different types of shocks in two panels, depends on their degree of substitution to fossil fuels. As the soybeans and to some extent corn price changes, which are most used in the production of biofuels, vary by direction and pattern in two panels, while the price dynamics of wheat is similar. The share of currency shocks and interest rates in explaining price changes in importing countries is higher than the exporting countries, which the main cause can be traced to the more developed financial markets in importing ones. Also, the difference in price response to idiosyncratic and common currency shock in two panels indicates the necessity to study the behavior of each panel member separately. Therefore, a separate model for Iranian economy was also estimated for the purpose of more precise conclusions and policy proposals.

Human development is one of the main aspects of development in each country in which different factors could influence this indicator. In this research, interrelationship between gross domestic product (GDP), energy consumption per capita and HDI and their control factors investigate by using simultaneous-equation panel data models based on Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) for a panel of 12 MENA countries during 1997-2015. Findings of this study show that there is a mutual positive and significant relationship between GDP, energy consumption and HDI of the MENA countries. Labor force and investment volume both have positive and statistically significant impact on GDP. On the other hand, Openness of the economy has positive and CO_2 emission have negative relation with HDI of the MENA countries. Also, population and financial development variables have significant and negative relation with energy consumption