نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 13 (تابستان 1398)

This study aims to examine and analyze the current state of Iran-Israel conflict over Iran's nuclear program. In this regard, the game theory tool has been used. The present research is descriptive-analytical in terms of its purpose and in terms of the nature of the research. According to the statements of the leader of the revolution that it is impossible to retreat from the nuclear positions and to continue the path that has been made in Iran's nuclear program, one can conclude that all the states of exit and development, rather than maintaining the status quo and maintaining the status quo Preferring to adherence to non-development, as well as adherence to development and non-development, is preferable to military confrontation. On the other hand, Israel's overall strategy is to prevent the development and shutdown of all Iranian nuclear activities, even at the expense of war (limited or global). Also, the results of this study showed that the game at the point is temporarily stopped and, as a result of the theory of games, the state is the point of equilibrium of the game, this includes Iran's withdrawal from the nuclear program and the development without limitation of the nuclear program, and support the increase of all-round pressures And unilateral and multilateral economic sanctions combined with a limited military strike on Israeli nuclear and military installations.

Nowadays, technological world is changing so fast that one of various organizations challenge is about getting informed and responding appropriately to them. In order to manage this challenge, organizations need to scout technological changes. As a result, this paper tries to introduce a generic model including the process (steps) and structure (components and their relations). In this regard, by studying and synthesizing the existing models about technology scanning, intelligence, scouting and monitoring, we try to develop a generic model. For this purpose, meta-synthesis methodology adopted. In order to measure our model reliability, we use the triangulation technique, which its tree angles are: literature review, case study and questionnaires. In fact, as existing models are not comprehensive and discuss just about one or some aspects of the technology scouting, the main value added of this paper is about leveraging positive aspects and strength points of each model in order to introducing a relatively comprehensive framework which includes all the components, relations and steps to do a perfect technology scouting. According to our finding three main variables in technology scouting model are: environmental specifications, organizational characteristics and technology dimensions. In addition, we found that in structural model, there are two main types of technology scouting: scanning and targeting. Deciding about appropriate structure depends to the above-mentioned variables. Finally inspired by technology foresight, we divided technology scouting into three main part: pre scouting, main scouting and post scouting. Each part has its own characteristics and steps.

Terrorism, one of the most trouble-causing issues around the world, by spreading violence and threats tries to achieve its political, ideological, and religious objectives. Analyzing terrorist actions and possible consequences assist researchers to deeply investigate how terrorists make decisions to decrease potential expenses. In this research, to analyze the actions which are taken by each group and also the interaction among them, game theory is employed. Due to the paramount importance of the continuity of time in the real world, differential game model is employed so that accurate results are more possible to achieve. In this research, first, the crucial factors and objectives for both the government and terrorist are modelled. Then the model of the game and Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation are presented. By doing so, military spending and the stock of armaments in equilibrium in Markovian model are analyzed. Finally, the numerical analysis of this model, which shows how they change with respect to these variables, by allotting appropriate amounts to each effective variable in the equilibrium is presented.

The occurrence of natural and unnatural disasters threatens the lives of many people around the world every year. Disaster response consists of some elements such as transferring of healthy people from the affected areas to the camps. The purpose of this study is to provide a mixed-integer linear mathematical programming model for determining the best location of camps and the route of vehicles between affected points and camps. In the transfer operation, fuzzy uncertainties of transportation time, the amount of affected points' demand, the time of service, and the time window are considered. In this research, the optimal amount of arrival time of vehicles to camps is calculated in pessimistic conditions. Then this amount is considered as the time limitation in a model to minimize the expected cost of damage to people and vehicles. The cost has been calculated with regard to the security of each route from the warehouse to the affected points and from the points to the camps. To illustrate the performance of the proposed model, the model is implemented on a random example. The results of this research can be used as a model for planning the response of the possible crisis of the operating defense.

Recent developments in decades of defensive technologies, as well as defensive thinking, such as the spread of a quick war on the planet, the network of warfare, and the emergence of free and open access to the virtual media have transformed the face of the wars. This transformation has led to new features for wars. War is one of the most challenging arenas of decision making for mankind. The advancement of technology and the evolution of war have forced commanders to make important decisions in short periods. Due to the complex nature of war and difficaulty of the fast analysis of its environment for human mind, its nessecary for commanders to use computer modeling methods to making better decisions. One of these methods is System Dynamics. Its important ability is calculating simultaneous effect of many variables on each other. In this Research the researcher tried to use system dynamics for executing the causal models of experts on the I.R.I and K.S.A Military conflict issue. Along with that, with a qualitative approach, the researcher reports the difficaulties of applying SD for strategic security and defensive issues and at the end, makes some suggestions for better modeling of these issues.

The main purpose of this study is to present a model of absorptive capacity in defense based knowledge organizations with a future research approach. The research method is an exploratory mixture designed in the first stage of qualitative study (Delphi futures) and the research model is designed for quantitative study in the next stage. Statistical population including academic experts, managers and heads were used to investigate the proposed dimensions and components of the initial model. The statistical population of the study consisted of the staff of defense based knowledge organizations located in Tehran and Alborz provinces (300 people) using simple random sampling method. The research method was descriptive-survey and data gathering tool was a questionnaire. Data analysis was done using Excel2013, SPSS24, Smart-PLS statistical software. Based on the theoretical and research background of the researcher-made questionnaire with 9 dimensions, 38 components were prepared. According to the results obtained from the research model, it can be stated that the proposed model is approved and also based on the intensity of impact among the model components in Table 6, detection on desirable performance, absorption on desirable performance have the lowest impact coefficient, respectively. While the external environment has the most influence on organizational factors and the external environment on integration, transformation, configuration. Also, the effect of operation on desirable performance, absorption on desirable performance, and the effect of diagnosis on desirable performance at 95% confidence level (5% significance level) were not significant. Absorption Capacity, Knowledge Base of Defense Organization, Future Studies