فصلنامه پژوهش های سیاستگذاری و برنامه ریزی انرژی
سال پنجم شماره 3 (پاییز 1398)

The Double dividend hypothesis briefly demonstrates that by replacing different kinds of distortionary taxes with environmental ones, not only the lesser pollutants would be emitted (the first merit), but the more productivity and public welfare would be gained (the second one). Given the urgent need of reducing emissions in Iran, levying taxes on carbon, aimed at reducing carbon dioxide by 12 percent, is simulated at present article by a computable general equilibrium model which hypothesized three recycling tax incomes scenarios. In order to calibrate the model, the social accounting matrix of 1390 is used, which comprises of 26 sectors, 36 commodities and two type of households, based on the input-output tables of the Iranian Statistics Center. The results of the present research show that the goal of 12 percent reduction of the emission would be met by 51.3 Rials taxing per each kg carbon dioxide in the scenario of restoring the whole taxes to the households, 73.5 Rials in the scenario of reducing production taxes and finally 58 Rials in the scenario of reducing labor taxes. In all the three scenarios, increase of the real consumption budget of household and the equivalent welfare index is evident. In the first scenario, employment decreases and in the second and third ones, it increases, whereas the real GDP decreases and in the second and third ones, it stands approximately the same. The results of the present research bear out the weak form of the double dividend hypothesis, in the sense that the welfare effects of reducing distortionary taxes are more than those of restoring the whole distortionary ones. The strong form of the hypothesis, however, is not approved in Iranian economy. Moreover, the reduction of labor tax policy, is accompanied by the optimum welfare and viability effects.

Within the last 3 decades, fossil fuels have been the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions. Energy intensive industries are the main energy-consuming sectors in Iran. Non-metallic mineral products, basic metals, and chemical products are considered to be the most energy intensive industries in Iran. this paper means to evaluate the environmental efficiency of industrial sector during 2008-2013, using RAM model, one of the slacks based model on DEA and also will separate the desirable and undesirable outputs. According to the results the least environmental efficiency belongs to producers of cement, lime, gypsum, brick, other non-flammable ceramic or crockery wares and non-metallic mineral products.Besides, sectors with the highest potential in reduction of co2 emmisions are listed as cement, lime, gypsum, brick, major chemicals expect for fertilizers and nitrogen compounds, fertilizers and nitrogen compounds and finally other industries.

The collaborative governance of renewable energy development, as a major solution to pollution, climate change and economic growth, has been selected as a new model for development policies in Iran, and has caused new interactions between public, private, and public actors. This research by using qualitative methodology and after 25 semi-structured interviews with policy makers, managers of organizations and companies, NGOs and investors to present a participatory development model with an institutional approach in Iran. The collaborative governance is a process that has initiated by motivation and moving the engagement cycle through effective interaction. By resolving conflicts, building trust and creating commitment amongst actors, this cycle enhances the collaborative process and achieves the desired outcomes. In this model, the dual role of cognitive, normative and formal institutions as a factor for progress and simultaneously a factor for prohibition of collaboration have investigated. The government by introducing incentive laws has created the incentive to invest in this sector. But some of the normative and cognitive institutional barriers, such as conflict of interests, non-commitment of state officials and private-sector distrust, have led to a lack of progress in development. At the end, some solutions including: commitment tools (campaigns, coalitions, and associations), participation of state organizations in paying social and social benefits, realizing the prices of energy carriers and using the combination of demand-side policies as the supply side have been proposed.

Urbanization through rapid constructions, is the main cause of high heat absorption in urban centers. In addition, the accumulation of heat energy resulted by removal of vegetation cover, has contributed to formation of urban heat islands (UHIs). The spatial distribution of heat intensity in Tehran Metropolitan Area was studied, and the influence of land use and green cover were analyzed in the present work. Data from a variety of sources is used to investigate the impact of greenspaces, on spatial patterns of land surface temperature pockets within the city. Land surface temperature (LST) data is derived from Landsat 8 satellite OLI/TIR sensors, and vegetation cover was extracted by using NDVI method and subsequently examined with the distribution of LST. The study revealed some heat and cool pockets within the city limit. Land surface temperature differences between land use classes were in the range of 5.5-6 °C. Land use and green cover play a critical role and influences microclimate. Green cover has a significant negative correlation with the measured temperature. The mitigation effect of the cool roof and green vegetation at the city scale is discussed and it is concluded that the city-scale deployment of cool roofs and green vegetation can greatly reduce the near-surface air temperature and surface skin temperature. Remedial measures can be taken in future urban planning endeavors based on the results of this study. Thus, the study urges city administrations, policy makers, and architects to take up effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce UHIs effects.

Due to the growth and expansion of cities and the unchanged distribution network, an important issue for electricity distribution companies is customer satisfaction with the quality of received power. It is clear that with the expansion of load centers, the amount of line power flow increases, that creates problems such as voltage drop and increased losses. Distribution network reconfiguration is one of the solutions for network administrators to prevent these problems. With increasing power consumption, environmental issues, and government constraints for power generation, have raised challenges in the distribution system. The solution is a smart grid implementation. In this paper are considered reconfiguration, distributed resources (PV and Wind systems) and energy storage systems (ESS) to achieve smart grid. The effect of scattered products on the reduction of losses, the effect of capacitive banks on improving the voltage profile and reducing losses, and the problem of reconfiguration on the performance indicators of the distribution system and the reduction of losses are investigated and proposed as a multi-objective function. The objective functions used include reducing total voltage deviations, reducing total system losses, increasing the security margin of lines, reducing the energy purchased from the main network, and reducing the energy variance from the main network. Several scenarios for examining the methods for improving the target functions have been investigated and the simulation results have been shown. The use of reconfiguration has a significant impact on the losses and voltage profiles, and distributed sources also have a positive impact on all sectors and affect the power of the network. With the activation of ESSs in the smart distribution network, the economic objective function is reduced and the grid has the ability to sell electricity to the main network. In the future work, the linearization of the proposed model and mathematical optimization methods can be used.

In this research, the factors affecting on electricity gap were examined in the electricity industry in Iran using the system dynamics approach compared to the econometric method. In the framework of the electricity gap prediction model, simulation of energy demand were investigated as well as its supply and effective factors. Analysis of the problems with these systems was very complicated because it is a simulated model based on many variables, relationships, and delays between these variables. In this study, the electricity gap was analyzed in light of the supply and demand of energy and considering the market equilibrium price, and the gap value was investigated using a dynamic system model. Also, using a regression analysis and using econometric methods (ARMA and ARIMA modeling), the gap was estimated. The data were used for the years since 1383 to 1393, which was adapted from Iran Energy Balance Sheet. Simulation for a 25-year period for dynamic systems and a 35-year period for a structural model was considered. In these study, the result was that the RMSE criterio for the structural model was 0.015 and for the dynamic model 0.057, and showed that estimating the structural model is more accurate than simulation by dynamic systems. Regarding the results, dynamic modeling was with more error for data estimation and was more suitable for showing the relationship between variables (causal and causal relationships) as well as the effect of each variable on another. Therefore, in order to more accurately estimation the data, structural modeling is more appropriate with regard to the information obtained.

The price of Iranian crude oil in different markets depends on the price of US crude oil. In recent months, the oil and gas industry and the sale of Iranian crude oil and the co-operation and investments of oil companies operating in the field of oil field development have halted. Therefore, examining the effects of US government policies on the oil market is very effective. The most important US government policies are energy independence, oil production development, opposition to compulsory carbon control policies and tax incentives. In this paper, Tramp's policy channels on the crude oil market have been investigated and their effects on the price of crude oil are highlighted. The US government's emphasis on energy independence and the removal of barriers to its country's oil production has been accompanied by growth-enhancing employment, which has led to an increase in industrial index, which, according to the estimates of this paper, changes in the Dow Jones Index could have a measurable impact. In addition to anti-OPEC policies by US government has been seeking to increase its market share, and in this regard, the significance of oil producing variables relative to their consumption and oil exports has had a significant impact on explaining the changes in US crude oil prices.