فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال بیستم شماره 1 (بهار 1399)

Formation of institutions depends on leaders and elite’s beliefs. Some factors influence the beliefs of people. The aim of this study is to identify beliefs affecting the formation of efficient institutions. In this research, the knowledge has been generated by the method of inductive qualitative content analysis, based on the lives of the six persons who have been introduced the experts as influential people in the formation of successful economic institutions. Based on the content analysis of the interviews, the self-efficacy beliefs have positive effects on the formation of efficient institutions, and skills and experiences affect the beliefs. Of two factors influencing self-efficacy belief, the experience of domination (impact of life circumference, and experiences of childhood and teenage) is of high scores in the first three persons than three next ones; however the substitution experience (impact of parents) is similar among sample under study. All six experts had good socioeconomic positions.

Expansion, utilization and distribution of potential economic opportunities among people have important impacts on the prosperity of each country. Simon Kuznets was the first researcher who systematically examined the relationship between economic growth and income distribution based on the statistical data. According to Kuznets, income inequality will decrease by economic growth in the long term. Therefore, economists focused on economic growth in order to reduce income inequality. However, the Kuznets hypothesis was faced with a serious challenge by publication of Piketty's “Capital” in the twenty-first century. Since, according to Piketty, not only income inequality has not diminished, but also it has increased unprecedentedly in the advanced stages of economic growth and development. In this regard, the aim of this study is to investigate the Thomas Piketty's hypothesis based on the statistical evidence of Iran by using the ARDL econometric method during the period 1975-2015. The results confirm Thomas Piketty's hypothesis according to statistical evidence of Iran. In addition, the effect of non-oil GDP on income inequality is negative and significant, but the impact of oil revenues is positive and significant. War has also led to increased income inequality.

In the orthodox economy, domestic and foreign security is one of the tasks of the welfare state and even of the minimalist state to protect private property rights. Military expenditure dependent on the stage of economic development may affect real economic variables differently. Within four models, this study uses wavelet coherence approach to assess the relationship between public order and military expenditure with oil revenues and private investment in Iran during the period 1959-2017. The results of the first model show that at four-year and 16-year time scales during the period 1969-1978, the growth of military expenditure and the growth of oil revenues are not only the co-phase but also the growth of oil revenues is a leading variable for the growth of military expenditure. The results of second model indicate that there is a coherence between the public order expenditure growth and the oil revenues growth in four-year horizons during 1960-1978, and they are also co-phase from 1997 to 2005. At time scales up to 8 years during 1993-2008, another type of relationship is observed. These variables are co-phase, but the public order expenditure growth is not a cause of oil revenues growth. The results of the third model show that the private investment growth and the public order expenditure growth act against each other, but they are co-phase in the long-run. The results of the wavelet power spectrum also show that the greatest energy of both periods is due to public order and military expenditure growth in the pre-revolution period.

Foreign capital inflows (FCIs) are considered as catalysts for economic development and important sources of transferring technology and foreign exchange earnings from developed to developing countries. FCIs include foreign direct investment (FDI), personal remittances (PRs) and official development aids (ODAs), which contribute to economic development. This paper aims to estimate the effects of FCIs on economic growth in Iran by using an endogenous growth model and applying Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) approach over the period 1992-2016. The results of the study indicate that all three kinds of foreign capital inflows have positive and significant impacts on economic growth in the long- and short-run. However, FDI and PRs are more effective than ODAs on economic growth in Iran. The study suggests that sound fiscal, monetary and trade policies lead to full effectiveness of the foreign capital inflows on economic growth.

The change in the price of real and financial assets is one of the factors that cause business cycle through different channels such as consumption, investment, firm’s balance sheet, and net export. With attention to aware of factor causing on business cycle in Adopting Economic policies, in this paper, we investigated the effect of stock market, house price, exchange rate, and liquidity on business cycle using linear and nonlinear LSTR models and season’s data in the period of 1991-2018. In nonlinear model, which is more suitable for explaining the relationship between variables in comparison with linear model, the cyclical component of the exchange rate selected as the transition variable and the value of the transition parameter was estimated to be 83.89 rials. Considering the estimated value of the transmission parameter, in the period, there were two regimes in the Iranian economy, low-exchange rate regime and a high-exchange rate regime. The results indicate that in both regimes, an increase in stock prices and liquidity cause economic expansion. Also, an increase in house prices and a decline in the exchange rate in the first regime put the economy at an expansion phase and put the economy at a recession phase in the second regime. Therefore, in order to expanding the economy, it is suggested that, on the one hand, the exchange rate be kept low and, on the other hand, increase housing price, stock price and liquidity.

In this study, using the classic and developed models of data envelopment analysis, the frontiers of efficiency and inefficiency were determined for 29 irrigated crops and the relative position of products was determined in terms of gross income and gross profit efficiencies. Research data included cost of inputs used in the preparation, planting, growing and harvesting stages along with income and profitability data for the crop year of 2014-15, which was extracted from the reports of Ministry of Agricultural Jihad.
The results showed that in the input-oriented approach for gross income, the efficiency ranged from 0.2698 to 0.8660. On average, at best, 12.4% and in the worst situation, 73.2% of inputs were overused to generate gross income. The worst rank devotes to barley in the optimistic scenario and to potato in the pessimistic scenario. For the gross profit, the average efficiency score in optimistic and pessimistic scenarios were 0.6353 and 0.1997, respectively, and minimum and maximum scores belonged to barley and potato, respectively. In the output-oriented approach, the average inefficiency for gross income was between 0.2805 and 0.8698, which indicated a possible reduction of income by 71.95% and 13.22%, respectively. In the case of gross profit, optimistic and pessimistic efficiencies were 18.15% and 55.4%, respectively. According to the findings, barley had the maximum inefficiency in all models.

Changes in exchange rate have different effects on macroeconomic variables and poverty rates through different channels in the economy. Evaluating the effects of policies and economic shocks on poverty requires the use of a method that firstly takes into account different sectors of the economy in a given model, and secondly can reflect both macroeconomic policies and the response of various economic institutions. For this purpose, we use the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model in which the household sector is disaggregated into ten categories of income and the poverty line is determined as an endogenous variable in the model. This model is solved based on the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 2011 and two scenarios of 25 percent and 35 percent increases in exchange rate are simulated. The results of both simulations show that the increase in exchange rates leads to a reduction in real incomes of the both rural and urban households, and consequently lower-income households are affected highly. The unification of exchange rate also increases poverty line and poverty measures of the FGT group (headcount ratio, poverty gap and poverty severity), so that the poverty line and poverty measures for urban households are higher than rural households.

This paper uses the non-linear auto-regressive distributed lags (NARDL) model to examine the short- and long -run effects of the negative and positive shocks of the shadow economy on financial development in Iran over the period 1974 - 2015. For this purpose, the ratio of liquidity to gross domestic product is used as an indicator of financial development. The shadow economy includes all market-based production activities that are deliberately hidden from government officials due to the escape or avoidance of payments, such as taxes and social security contributions. In this study, the MIMIC (multiple indicators and multiple causes) calculations by Piraee and Rajaee (2015) are used for estimating the shadow economy. The results show that the effects of positive and negative shocks of shadow economy on financial development are asymmetric in the short- and long-run. This asymmetry means that in the short- and long-run, the negative shock to shadow economy is more effective than its positive shock. Therefore, in order to maintain the current level of financial development, the government can monitor size of shadow economy through strict control of illegal activities in the short-run, identify the illegal activities, and reduce them in the long run‎.