نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 14 (پاییز 1398)

This paper aims to review and analyze the foundations, concepts, definitions and models of foresight and strategic foresight provided by experts, in order to extract the dimensions, components and key items and finally intreduce steps of strategic foresight for defensive technology in the field of army air defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In order to analyze, the initial data was collected by documentary studies (25 documents), then using Meta-Study(Meta-Synthesis), we determined the dimensions, components and items of the research. Finally, 68 people were asked to complete the questionnaire. Using descriptive and inferential statistics, the following results were obtained. Five stages with the relevant components and steps for defensive technologies strategic foresight of air defense were determined: The pre-foresight stage includes the components of the study of competitor and enemy organizations (3 steps), the study of upstream and par organizations (2 steps), survey of the Organization (3 steps) and reviewing the existing situation (5 steps). The determination of inputs stage includes components of target designation (4 steps), specifying stakeholders (5 steps), setting the Territory (4 steps) and data collection (4 steps). The foresight stage includes components of analysis (3 steps), interpretation (step 2), favorable condition (step 2) and vision (4 steps). The Output stage includes components of preparation for decision making (3 steps) and assessment & decision making (4 steps). And The Strategy formulation stage includes components of strategic development or strategic technology management (5 steps) and implementation & execution (5 steps).

Weather is one of the most important geographical factors affecting defense and military affairs. One of the concerns of combatant commanders at the scene for future long-term planning is to be aware of the military climate calendar in different regions. The southeastern region of the country is important due to its proximity to as well as specific climatic conditions such as the occurrence of 120-day Sistan winds with dust and visibility, and the impact of summer monsoon weather on military planning. In this study Seven stations with a statistical period of over 30 years were selected and climatic data on various parameters were obtained from the Meteorological Organization. Then, after determining the importance of each of the climatic parameters, the status of the area was studied in terms of the suitability of climatic conditions for various military operations at the present time as well as in the 1420 landscape. The results of the study showed that the least favorable months for military operations in the region will be June and August, while among the studied stations the least favorable is Zabul and Zakak stations Also the most favorable military climate in the region is in the months of November, October and March, among the stations of the province, Chabahar and Saravan stations in this month have more favorable climate than others. Finally, in order to predict future climate conditions, two scenarios were presented as "hard military climate" and "natural climate manipulation".

In many Project driven corporations there are many outsourcing plans. The growth in outsourcing, in particular human resource (HR) outsourcing, has been triggered by the enduring efforts of organizations to reduce costs, to focus on strategic issues, and to improve services to the employees.The existing literature only suggests that among the areas neglected in HR are the partnership quality and the impact of service quality on the success of HR outsourcing.These plans have some aims like miniaturization, achieving to best effectiveness, control and transparency. Research and Development is one of the effective factors on increasing total products and efficiency in defense industry, especially for Middle East countries. Selecting research cooperators is a problem in actual situations such as planning for future R&D. In this article we identify and analyze effective factors on selecting cooperators in research network. We use 33 indexes in 9 dimensions. Our method is factor analysis and we used of Smart PLS software.With using infrastructures equations Our findings accepted all of 33 factors. Moreover these factors had the most effect respectively: quality, finance, obligation,confidence and contractor organization.

In the past, most military operations were planned and implemented based on intelligence estimates, human resources, logistics and other estimates and operational plans. Meanwhile gradually, prediction, planning and decision-making techniques became more varied and expanded with the development of joint and even compound operations. In this paper, the utilization of prediction and future studies methods is considered various methods have been identified and introduced. By reviewing the application of these methods in scientific papers in the last 10 years and the opinions of experts, it has been found that it is increasing the trend of using prediction and futuristic methods. Based on library studies and interview with experts were identified forecasting and future studies methods in the two groups: quantitative and qualitative methods. 64 methods were extracted by using PCA method. The status of application of these methods was calculated in the decision-making environment of joint and compound operations by the importance-performance analysis method. The results show that quantitative

Maximum likelihood estimation methods, computer modeling, simulation, auto-regressive moving averages, nonlinear prediction methods, auto-regressive, vector, genetic algorithm and trend analysis and in qualitative

Micmac Analysis, Horizon Scanning, participatory future praxis, Cohort-Component Method, Strategic Visioning & Leadership, Wargaming, and Principal Component Analysis are more important. Finally, some suggestions have been made to improve the use of these methods in view of the need to familiarize decision makers in the Joint operation environment.