فهرست مطالب

فصلنامه پژوهش های جغرافیای طبیعی
پیاپی 111 (بهار 1399)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1399/02/17
  • تعداد عناوین: 10
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  • مهران مقصودی*، ابراهیم مقیمی، مجتبی یمانی، ناصر رضایی، انور مرادی صفحات 1-16

    میراث ژیومورفولوژیکی شاخه‏ ای از ژیومورفولوژی و اساسا جغرافیاست. مطالعات و محبوبیت میراث ژیومورفولوژیکی به‏ سرعت در حال رشد است و به بررسی جامع ادبیات علمی نیاز دارد. هدف اصلی از مطالعه حاضر بررسی سیستماتیک ادبیات علمی میراث ژیومورفولوژیکی طی سه دهه گذشته است. در این تحقیق بازبینی ادبیات علمی میراث ژیومورفولوژیکی در سه مرحله انجام شده است: 1. جست‏وجوی ادبی؛ 2. انتخاب مطالعات مربوطه؛ 3. طبقه‏ بندی و تلفیق یافته‏ ها در این مطالعه 207 مقاله علمی- پژوهشی منتشرشده به زبان انگلیسی به ‏طور عمیق بررسی شده است. نتایج نشان می‏دهد که محققان تمرکز بیشتری بر شناسایی و ارزیابی میراث ژیومورفولوژیکی دارند. حدود 38/48 درصد مطالعات بر پتانسیل توسعه ژیوتوریسم میراث ژیومورفولوژیکی تمرکز دارند و فقط 35/4 درصد بر مدیریت و حفاظت تاکید کرده ‏اند. حدود 64 درصد مطالعات براساس ترکیبی از داده‏ های کیفی و کمی انجام شده است. نتایج همچنین نشان می‏دهد که محققان کمتر علاقه‏ مند به ذی‏نفعان میراث ژیومورفولوژیکی مانند گردشگران و جوامع محلی‏ اند و در تعداد بسیار کمی از مطالعات میراث ژیومورفولوژیکی در زمینه توسعه پایدار بررسی شده است. باتوجه‏ به نتایج پیش‏بینی می‏شود حداقل در پنج سال آینده پژوهش‏ها بیشتر بر چالش ‏های مدیریتی و حفاظتی میراث ژیومورفولوژیکی و چگونگی حل این چالش‏ها متمرکز شوند.

    کلیدواژگان: ادبیات علمی، میراث ژئومورفولوژیکی، سیستماتیک، روند توسعه، ژئوتوریسم
  • بهروز سبحانی*، وحید صفریان زنگیر، سینا فیض الله زاده صفحات 17-35

    برای مدل‏سازی و پیش‏یابی پدیده مخاطره‏ای گرد و غبار در مناطق گرد و غبارخیز ایران، نخست داده ‏های گرد و غبار، دما، و رطوبت 28 ایستگاه مناطق درگیر شدید با گرد و غبار در ایران در بازه زمانی 29 ساله (2018-1990) اخذ شد. سپس، با استفاده از مدل‏های شبکه عصبی ANFIS و RBF در نرم‏ افزار MATLAB مدل‏سازی‏ها انجام گرفت. داده‏های گرد و غبار به ‏دست ‏آمده از پیش ‏بینی با استفاده از مدل تصمیم‏ گیری چندمتغیره TOPSIS و مناطق بیشتر درگیر با پدیده مخاطره‏ای گرد و غبار برای سال‏های آتی اولویت ‏سنجی و مشخص شدند. براساس نتایج پژوهش، مقایسه دو مدل شبکه عصبی ANFIS و RBF در بهترین شرایط نشان داد که مقدار RMSE مدل ANFIS برابر با 67/11 و مدل RBF برابر با 19/2 است. بنابراین، قدرت دقت RBF در پیش ‏بینی گرد و غبار در سال‏های شبیه ‏سازی‏ شده بیشتر است. براساس نتایج خروجی مدل شبکه عصبی- مصنوعی RBF در پیش بینی گرد و غبار برای سال‏های آتی ایستگاه های مورد مطالعه؛ در هر دو مقیاس میانگین و حداکثر فراوانی گرد و غبار، ایستگاه ‏های غربی و جنوب غربی منطقه مورد پژوهش بیشتر در معرض گرد و غبار در سال های آینده قرار گرفتند. همچنین، در مدل TOPSIS، ایستگاه‏ های آبادان، مسجد سلیمان، و اهواز به‏ ترتیب با مقدار درصد (1، 95/0، و 81/0) در معرض گرد و غبار قرار گرفتند.

    کلیدواژگان: تحلیل آماری، شبیه‏سازی، مخاطره، مدل‏های RBF و ANFIS، مناطق گرد و غباری ایران
  • مجتبی مهدیان ماه فروزی، علی اکبر شمسی پور*، مصطفی کریمی احمدآباد، پیمان زواررضا صفحات 37-50

    لایه مرزی به علت پیوند مستقیم با زندگی انسان اهمیت بسزایی دارد. در این پژوهش با دریافت داده‏ های ساعتی و میانگین روزانه از مرکز اروپایی پیش‏بینی میان‏مدت هوا و دپارتمان علوم جوی دانشگاه وایومینگ برای دوره 1988 تا 2017، با کاربرد نرم افزارهای Excel و R و با به‏ خدمت ‏گیری توابع محاسباتی روش بسته پیشرفته، مجموعه توابع چندبعدی و ابزار ECMWF در محیط ArcMap تغییرات ارتفاعی لایه مرزی شهر تهران در بازه سالانه تهیه شد. نتایج نشان داد که سقف متوسط ارتفاع لایه مرزی در حدود 850 متری سطح زمین قرار دارد و در شرایط شبانه به‏طور متوسط تا حدود 80متری و در شرایط روزانه تا حدود 2300متری سطح زمین پایین و بالا می‏رود. این متغیر در کل دوره سالانه در حدود 5 متر افزایش ارتفاع داشته است. به ‏لحاظ الگوی فضایی، کمینه ارتفاع در هر یک از سه متغیر موردبررسی در شمال شرقی تهران و بیشینه آن در جنوب و جنوب غربی تهران رخ ‏داده است. ضمن اینکه این متغیر با برخی متغیرهای اقلیمی دیگر نظیر دمای سطحی رابطه معناداری (8143/0) دارد. همچنین، براساس یافته‏ ها، روش بسته پیشرفته مقبولیت بسیار زیادی در محاسبه ارتفاع لایه مرزی با استفاده از داده ‏های رادیوسوند دارد.

    کلیدواژگان: ارتفاع لایه مرزی، تهران، رادیوسوند، روش بسته پیشرفته، ECMWF
  • عباسعلی داداشی رودباری، محمود احمدی*، علیرضا شکیبا صفحات 51-64

    هدف از این پژوهش ارزیابی روند شاخص هواویز (AI) فصلی در ایران است. در این راستا، داده‏ های سنجنده TOMS دو ماهواره Nimbus 7 و Earth Probe و سنجنده OMI ماهواره Aura اخذ شد و از آزمون ناپارامتریک من- کندال (MK) برای شناسایی روند شاخص هواویز استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد داده‏ های سنجنده TOMS ماهواره EP برای مطالعه روند مناسب نیست، زیرا از سال 2001 داده ‏های این سنجنده کالیبراسیون نمی‏شود. بیشینه و کمینه روند شاخص هواویز ایران به‏ ترتیب برای سنجنده OMI و TOMS ماهواره Nimbus 7 محاسبه شد. در فصل بهار به ‏دلیل فعال‏ شدن چشمه‏ های گرد و غبار از مناطقی با روند کاهشی کاسته شد و بر مناطقی با روند افزایشی افزوده شد. بیشینه روند افزایشی معنی ‏دار و همچنین بیشینه مقدار متوسط شدت روند شاخص هواویز (AI) براساس سنجنده OMI در فصل پاییز محاسبه شد. روند افزایشی شاخص هواویز (AI) در ایران به‏دلیل شرایط محیطی (خشک‏سالی و تغییرات کاربری اراضی) و آب و هوایی (باد شمال تابستانه، الگوهای دینامیکی و حرارتی غرب آسیا، و کم‏فشار حرارتی سند) است. مقایسه داده‏ های ماهواره‏ای با داده ‏های ایستگاه ‏های همدید گرد و غبار در پهنه‏ های مختلف آب و هوایی نشان از تطابق داده ‏های ماهواره‏ای و زمینی دارد.

    کلیدواژگان: آزمون من- کندال (MK)، ایران، سنجنده OMI، سنجنده TOMS، شاخص جذب هوایز (AAI)
  • مونا ذوالقدر شجاعی، امید علیزاده چوبری*، پرویز ایران نژاد، فرهنگ احمدی گیوی صفحات 65-84

    با استفاده از داده ‏های میانگین ماهانه ERA-Interim، ال‏نینوهای 1997-1998، 2009-2010، و 2015-2016، که به‏ ترتیب ال‏نینوهای فرین شرق و مرکز اقیانوس آرام و ال‏نینوی فرین ترکیبی‏اند مطالعه شده است. نتایج نشان داد آغاز هر سه ال‏نینوی فرین از ماه ژوییه بوده است؛ درحالی‏که تفاوت‏ های بارزی در زمان از بین رفتن ال‏نینوهای 1997-1998 و 2015-2016 وجود دارد. در هر سه ال‏نینو، بی ‏هنجاری‏های مثبت و منفی دمای سطح دریا به ‏ترتیب در مناطق استوایی شرق و غرب اقیانوس آرام تشکیل شده ‏اند. بیشینه بی‏ هنجاری ‏های مثبت دمای سطح دریا طی وقوع ال‏نینوی 1997-1998 در مناطق استوایی شرق اقیانوس آرام و در ال‏نینوی 2009-2010 در مناطق استوایی مرکز اقیانوس آرام قرار دارند. بی‏ هنجاری‏ های مثبت دمای سطح دریا در ال‏نینوی 2015-2016 از مرکز تا شرق مناطق استوایی اقیانوس آرام کشیده شده‏ اند. همچنین، اندازه بی‏ هنجاری‏های دمای سطح دریا و فشار تراز دریا در ال‏نینوی 1997-1998 از ال‏نینوی 2009-2010 بزرگ‏تر بوده است. در هر سه ال‏‏نینو، بی‏ هنجاری‏ه ای مثبت (منفی) ارتفاع ژیوپتانسیلی در تراز 300 هکتوپاسکال در همان مناطقی از اقیانوس آرام حاره‏ای شکل گرفته‏ اند که بی‏ هنجاری‏های مثبت (منفی) دمای سطح دریا مشاهده می‏شود. بی‏ هنجاری‏ های شکل‏ گرفته در ترازهای فوقانی وردسپهر در مناطق حاره‏ای اقیانوس آرام در طی این سه ال‏نینو بر الگوهای جوی مناطق دیگر تاثیر گذاشته ‏اند.

    کلیدواژگان: ال‏نینو- نوسان جنوبی (انسو)، ال‏نینوی ترکیبی، ال‏نینوی شرق اقیانوس آرام، ال‏نینوی مرکز اقیانوس آرام، دورپیونده
  • امیدرضا کفایت مطلق، محمود خسروی*، سید ابوالغضل مسعودیان، محمدصادق کیخسروی کیانی، محسن حمیدیان پور صفحات 85-94

    سپیدایی از فراسنجهای مورد نیاز در مطالعات آب و هوایی است. بررسی رفتار زمانی و مکانی آن می‏تواند ابزاری برای شناخت تغییرات محیطی باشد. هدف از این مطالعه بررسی رابطه تغییرات بلندمدت سپیدایی کشور براساس داده‏ های ماهواره‏ای در یک دوره هجده‏ ساله با توجه به اثر عوامل جغرافیایی همچون ارتفاع و عرض جغرافیایی است. از این رو، نخست داده ‏های روزانه سپیدایی سنجنده مودیس در محدوده ایران در بازه زمانی 1/1/1379 تا 29/12/1396 از تارنمای مودیس استخراج شد. سپس، میانگین بلندمدت سپیدایی ایران‏زمین محاسبه شد. یافته ‏ها نشان داد سپیدایی ایران با میانگین 21درصد نزدیک به میانگین سیاره‏ای است که این ویژگی گذشته از عرض جغرافیایی به ناهمواری‏ ها و شرایط رویه زمین بستگی دارد. از این جهت، پیوند سپیدایی سرخ‏فام و ارتفاع از تراز دریا بررسی شد. یافته‏ های این بخش نشان داد که این پیوند یک رابطه قطعه به قطعه خطی است؛ به‏ طوری‏ که ابتدا با افزایش ارتفاع (از سطح زمین تا 1000متری)، سپیدایی کاهش یافته و سپس با افزایش ارتفاع (بالاتر از 1400متری) به سبب کاهش دما و پوشش برفی بر سپیدایی افزوده شده است. به‏ طور کلی، می‏توان گفت این پیوند قطعه به قطعه خطی برگرفته از تنوع ناهمواری‏ ها و جنس رویه زمین است.

    کلیدواژگان: ایران، چارک، سپیدایی، مودیس، میانگین بلندمدت
  • مینا میریان، مصطفی کرم پور*، محمد مرادی، هوشنگ قائمی صفحات 95-111

    پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناخت الگوهای دینامیکی و ترمودینامیکی بارش‏های سنگین فراگیر زمستانه ایران در بازه زمانی 1960-2010 انجام گرفته است. ازاین‏رو، نخست شدیدترین دوره مرطوب در بازه زمانی پنجاه‏ ساله مشخص (سال 1974) و سپس فراگیرترین روز با بارش سنگین انتخاب شد (روز 5/12/1974). در ادامه، کمیت‏های دینامیکی و ترمودینامیکی موردنظر در محیط برنامه‏ نویسی فورترن 77 تعریف شد و برای تحلیل تغییرات زمانی کمیت‏ها نقشه‏ های گرافیکی آن‏ها ترسیم و تحلیل شد. نتایج نشان می‏دهد در زمان رخداد بارش سنگین فراگیر، منطقه همگرایی قوی در سطح کشور شکل‏ گرفته که منطبق بر منطقه واگرایی تراز میانی جو صعود دینامیکی هوا را موجب شده است. در این شرایط، مقادیر تاوایی نسبی و تاوایی مطلق منطبق بر بخش شرقی ناوه افزایش می‏یابد. مقادیر تاوایی پتانسیلی راسبی‏- ارتل ترازهای فشاری 500 و 50 هکتوپاسکالی و سطح هم ‏آنتروپی 330 کلوین نیز به‏سبب عواملی چون افزایش گرادیان دمای پتانسیل، افزایش تاوایی مطلق، و همچنین زیادشدن پایداری ایستایی در سطوح فوقانی جو افزایش می‏یابد. این شرایط نشان می‏دهد که در رخداد بارش‏ های سنگین این نواحی، علاوه‏بر تغییرات دینامیک سطوح میانی و زیرین وردسپهر، تغییرات دینامیک پوشن‏‏‏سپهری نیز نقش مهمی ایفا می‏کند.

    کلیدواژگان: بارش سنگین، تاوایی، دینامیکی، همگرایی، واگرایی
  • سعید جهانبخش اصل*، غلامحسن محمدی، وحید خجسته غلامی، اسما آزاده قره باغ صفحات 113-127

    هدف اصلی از این مطالعه تشخیص نقش دورپیوند QBO بر بارش‏های فصل زمستان در ایران است. بدین منظور، از داده ‏های بارش صد ایستگاه هواشناسی در دوره آماری 1988-2017 استفاده شد و با اعمال چند روش آماری و توصیفی نقش QBO بر بارش‏های فصل زمستان بررسی شد. با انتقال خروجی‏ ها به محیط سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS)، پهنه ‏های مختلف اثرپذیر از QBO مشخص شد. نتایج یافته‏ های پژوهش حاکی از آن است که ارتباط معکوس و معنی‏داری بین فازهای مثبت QBO در فصل پاییز و بارش‏های فصل زمستان در نواحی مرکزی و جنوبی ایران وجود دارد؛ به‏ طوری‏که بیشترین ضرایب همبستگی بین 6/0- تا 86/0- در سواحل جنوبی خلیج فارس مشاهده‏شدنی است. نتیجه مهم دیگر این پژوهش آشکارسازی نقش فازهای فرین منفی بر کاهش بارش‏های فصل زمستان است. به ‏طور کلی، به‏نظر می‏رسد فازهای ملایم QBO نقش مساعدی در ترسالی‏های اغلب مناطق کشور داشته و به هنگام رخداد فازهای منفی حدی غالبا زمستان‏های خشک در بیشتر نقاط کشور رخ داده است. همچنین، وقوع فرین‏های مثبت و به‏ ویژه منفی نمایه QBO به‏ترتیب در فصول پاییز و زمستان یکی از علل خشک‏سالی‏ های زمستانه در مناطق جنوبی و غربی ایران بوده است.

    کلیدواژگان: ایران، بارش زمستانه، دورپیوند، نوسان شبه‏دوسالانه (QBO)
  • طیبه شجاعی، غلام عباس فلاح قالهری*، عبدالرضا کاشکی صفحات 129-145

    درختان میوه، به‏ دلیل ساختار بیولوژیکی‏شان، به تغییرات آب و هوایی حساسیت بسیار زیادی دارند. مطالعه حاضر در دو دوره گذشته (2005-1985) و دوره آینده (2090-2020) بررسی شد. در دوره آینده از مدل‏های BCC-CSM1.1، MRI.CGCM3، GFDL-CM3، MIROC-ESM، و  GISS-E2-Rاز سری مدل‏های CMIP5 پایگاه داده MarksimGCM در خط سیر سناریوهای RCP8.5 و  RCP4.5 استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد مدل MRI.CGCM3 از وزن و توانایی بیشتری در شبیه‏سازی آینده نسبت به دیگر مدل‏ها برخوردار است. در مناطق کشت درخت انگور در ایران به ‏طور متوسط دمای کمینه در خط سیرهای واداشتی RCP8.5 و RCP4.5 در دوره ‏های 2020- 2055 و 2056-2090، به‏ترتیب 6/1 و 2/4 و 2/1 و 3/2 درجه سانتی‏گراد نسبت به دوره پایه افزایش خواهد یافت. با توجه به افزیش دمای هوا، زمان رخداد آستانه زیستی و مراحل فنولوژیکی درخت انگور در دوره آینده نسبت به دوره گذشته در زمان جلوتری تکمیل خواهد شد؛ به‏ طوری‏ که در الگوی واداشتی بدبینانه، زمان رخداد آستانه زیستی در آینده میانی و دور 8 تا 16 روز و زمان گل‏دهی نیز 6 تا 16 روز، جلوتر رخ خواهد داد. بنابراین، یکی از اثرهای عمده تغییر اقلیم در قالب تغییر رخداد مرحله فنولوژیکی گل‏دهی درختان میوه ظاهر خواهد شد.

    کلیدواژگان: ایران، انگور، تغییر اقلیم، سناریوهای RCP، CMIP5
  • سامان نادی زاده شورابه، سارا عطارچی*، فواد مینایی صفحات 147-164

    برخلاف سنجنده‏ های اپتیکی که تحت تاثیر عوامل محیطی مانند دود، مه، ابر، و میزان نور خورشید قرار می‏گیرند، سنجنده‏ های راداری با روزنه مجازی در همه ساعات شبانه‏ روز و همه نوع شرایط آب و هوایی توانایی اخذ داده را دارند. بنابراین، هدف از این تحقیق ارزیابی قابلیت باند‏های راداری برای استخراج خصوصیات بیوفزیکی سطح زمین است. در این مطالعه از داده‏ های ماهواره‏ای لندست-8 و باندهای پلاریمتریک VV و VH سنتینل-1 استفاده شده است. ارتباط 18 شاخص طیفی استخراج‏شده از تصاویر اپتیکی با باندهای راداری در مناطق مختلف بررسی شده است. نتایج به ‏دست‏ آمده نشان داد که از باندهای راداری با توجه به ماهیت منطقه موردمطالعه خصوصیات متفاوتی می‏توان استخراج کرد؛ به‏ طوری‏ که در منطقه موردمطالعه اول با کاربری زمین بایر شاخص LST، در منطقه مورد مطالعه دوم با کاربری زمین کشاورزی شاخص EVI، و در منطقه موردمطالعه سوم با کاربری پوشش جنگلی متراکم شاخص MNDWI به‏ ترتیب دارای همبستگی 668/0، 756/0، و 803/0 با باندهای راداری است. بنابراین، با توجه به نتایج به‏ دست‏ آمده در مواقعی که امکان استفاده از داده ‏های اپتیکی وجود ندارد می‏توان از باندهای راداری به‏ عنوان جای‏گزین مناسبی برای استخراج خصوصیات بیوفیزیکی سطح زمین استفاده کرد.

    کلیدواژگان: تحلیل رگرسیون، خصوصیات بیوفیزیکی، داده‏های اپتیکی، داده‏های راداری، شاخص‏های طیفی
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  • Mehran Maghsoudi *, Ebrahim Moghimi, Mojtaba Yamani, Naser Rezaei, Anvar Moradi Pages 1-16
    Introduction

    The geomorphological heritage is a branch of geomorphology and is essentially geographic. The concept of geomorphological heritage includes landforms and processes that play a key role in understanding earth history, but also has a link with biological and cultural heritage. The geomorphological heritage is more than ever possible in a position to become a sustainable resource through geotourism and environmental education. The search, selection and systematic classification of studies allows for clear results and reproduction, and helps limit bias potential. Studies and popularity of geomorphological heritage are growing rapidly and require a comprehensive review of literature on the subject. Due to the rapid growth of research and popularity of geomorphological heritage and its use (geotourism, geopark, world heritage, etc.), a comprehensive review of the scientific literature of geomorphological heritage is necessary. However, given the increasing growth of geomorphological heritage over the past few years, there is a need for further understanding of the main themes and methods that exist in geomorphological heritage research and the potential gap of knowledge; therefore, the main purpose of this paper is the systematic review of published scientific literature. In the case of geomorphological heritage in order to answer two questions: (1) what knowledge has been produced in the scientific literature of geomorphological heritage; and (2) what trend is evolving in geomorphological heritage research.

    Methodology

    In this research, the review of the geomorphological heritage literature carried out in three stages: (1) literary search; (2) selection of relevant studies; (3) classification and compilation of results. In this study, 207 research papers published in English have been thoroughly investigated. To ensure the quality of the review, only papers published in the search journals were reviewed. Search in the four largest online databases of scientific research, Scopus, Web of Science, Science Direct and Springer. Given that English is widely used in scientific research, only papers published in English are selected. The key words used to search are "geomorphological heritage" and "geomorphosite". First, book chapters, conferences proceedings, editorials, reviews, research notes, short communications, and reports were excluded from this survey. A total of 207 scientific-research articles have been selected for this review. Papers are also categorized according to their goals and topics, their research methods and their results. Summarizing and synthesizing the most important results provided, identifying the main research trends in the geomorphological heritage and the areas that require further research.

    Results and discussion

    The results show an increasing concentration of research on geomorphological heritage. In the first decade, the number of papers published has been 1 or 2 articles per year, and since 2004 the number of published Papers has increased rapidly. The results show that researchers are more focused on identifying and evaluating geomorphological heritage. The geographical analysis of the study areas represents a global distribution that includes studies in 46 countries. About 48.38% of the studies focus on the potential for geotourism development of geomorphological heritage and only 4.35% emphasize management and conservation. About 64% of the papers are based on a combination of qualitative and quantitative data and 67% have used the combination of primary and secondary data for research. Primary data was mainly collected through fieldwork, including field survey and sampling. The results also show that researchers are less interested in geomorphological heritage stakeholders, such as tourists and local communities, and very few studies survey the geomorphological heritage in the context of sustainable development. In the present study, the history of geomorphological heritage studies has been studied separately in the three decades 1991-2000, 2001-2010, and 2011-2018. During these three decades of research, the most important published works and the development of geomorphological heritage studies have been discussed and analyzed. These three periods include the appearance of new concepts, the development of theory and methodology, and the focus on specific contexts of geomorphological heritage. The results of this literature review indicate that the subjects studied include identifying, inventorying, describing, assessing the potential of geotourism in study areas, conservation issues, tools for promote geomorphological heritage, modeling for geomorphosite and other methodological approaches as well as tourists' understanding and motivation. Regarding the study process, the main topics that need further research include the feasibility of a geomorphological heritage for inclusion in the World Heritage List, geoparks and national heritage, the management and conservation challenges of the geomorphological heritage, the positive and negative effects of geotourism on geomorphologic heritage and the main challenges faces of managers and different groups of stakeholders of geomorphological heritage. The stability of geomorphological heritage is one of the main goals that should be achieved by raising the awareness of tourists and local people of the importance of preserving the geomorphological heritage.

    Conclusion

    Considering studies of geomorphological heritage, more studies are needed to study how geomorphological heritage studies and related challenges are addressed and how to solve these challenges. Next challenges for the international community of geomorphologists and in general geologists are the creation of guidelines and principles for the development of geomorphological heritage scientific achievements. Management and conservation of geomorphological heritage in pursuit of sustainable development goals requires study by the scientific community. The proper management of the geomorphological heritage not only affects the proper characteristics of the sites but also determines their geographic boundaries, which Brilha (2018) also emphasizes on this subject. In addition, in none of the geomorphological heritage studies, so far, integrated management approach has not been considered and this approach has not been studied; therefore, moving towards integrated management of geomorphological heritage with the participation of researchers in the humanities and social / political sciences as well as economists and Communication science professionals are essential. However, other issues require further research to provide the knowledge and understanding necessary for the development and successful management of geomorphological heritage. According to the development trend of studies, at least in the next five years, research is expected to concentrate on the management and conservation challenges of geomorphological heritage and how to solve these challenges.

    Keywords: Scientific literature, Geomorphological Heritage, systematic, Development Trend, Geotourism
  • Behrooz Sobhani *, Vahid Safarian Zengir, Sina Faizollahzadeh Pages 17-35
    Introduction

    Dust in hazardous areas anywhere in the world is hazardous In different parts Life Organisms had. Dust Mineral Aerosols can significantly affect Earth's climate (Zhiyuan et al., 2019: 3). The prevalence of dust storms is devastating to human health and agricultural activities in Central Asia (Tiangang et al., 2019: 16). Dust it plays an important role in socio-economic development, but on the other hand, such supply can have a negative impact on the environment and the environment of the forest (Narayan et al, 2019: 4). According to the above studies, the importance of dust and the resulting hazard, in the case study, it can be admitted that the dust parameter is important for natural hazards. According to the studies, the existing methods for studying the dust that has been done so far have been general and have not adequately addressed the subject. Dust in the areas under its control anywhere in the world has had a dangers in various parts of life. Drought storms have also been growing in recent years (Mohammad Khan, 2017: 495). Drought phenomenon due to recent droughts has caused adverse biological effects and damages in agriculture, industry and transportation in the provinces of Khuzestan and other neighboring districts (Darvishi et al., 2017: 1). Today, dust is one of the common phenomena and is one of the major environmental problems in arid and semi-arid areas (Hejazi Zadeh et al., 2018: 108). The purpose of this study was to analyze the dust data first to address this issue Then, using ANFIS and RBF models, a modeling comparison was used and finally, for a better view of the dust situation for the future, in dusty regions of Iran, they were predicted.

    Material and method

    In this study after analyzing 29-year-old dust data for 28 stations of dusty regions of Iran, they were first analyzed and then normalized, and non-normal stations were normalized. After normalizing the dust data using two new and powerful applied models for modeling and forecasting in climateology, the ANFIS and RBF models were modeled. and Then the two models were compared to accurate prediction for the future, and after training the dust data, they were predicted for the coming years. Finally, using the TOPSIS multivariate decision making model, regions are more involved with the priority hazardous dust hazard phenomenon and by utilizing ArcGIS software output data Zoned.RBF neural network model Neural networks with radial base function are widely used for nonparametric multi-dimensional functions through a limited set of educational information. Radial neural networks with a fast and comprehensive learning are very interesting and efficient, and they pay particular attention to it, Hartman et al. (1990). Gyrosy, Pogni, as well as Hartmann and Kepler, in the 1990s proved that radial-base grid networks are very powerful approximation devices, so that by having a sufficient number of hidden neurons, they can be able to approximate each function Continuously and accurately with every degree. These networks are often compared to the neural network back propagation error. The main architecture of the RBF consists of a two-tier network (Khanjani et al., 2016).ANFIS Neural Network Model In this step, it is possible to model and predict dust in the studied area using the ANFIS comparative neuro-fuzzy network model (Ansari, 2010: 29). In this study, the phenomenon of dust in a series of time of 276 months (23 × 12 276) in two ANFIS and RBF neural networks models in each station was considered. In a time series consisting of n examples x_1, 〖x〗 _ (2), ..., x_n is the next value of relation (6) of its previous value (Asghari Oskouei, 2002: 75). (6) x_k=f (〖 x〗_(k-1 ),〖 x〗_(k-2 ),…,x_(k-p ))The fuzzy system is a system based on the "conditional-result" logical rules that, using the concept of linguistic variables and fuzzy decision making process, depicts the space of input variables on the space of the output variables. The combination of fuzzy systems based on logical rules, and artificial neural network methods that enable the extraction of knowledge from numerical data, has led to the introduction of a comparative neural system inference. In Fig. 3, a sogeven fuzzy system with three inputs, one output and two laws and an equivalent ANFIS system were presented. This system has two inputs x and y and one f output.
    Proximity to Ideal Mode (TOPSIS) Huang and Yun proposed TOPSIS in 1981. In this method, m options (A1, A2, ..., Am) were evaluated with n indices (C1, C2, ..., Cn) (Momeni, 2008). Solving this problem with this method was carried out in the following steps (Makvandi et al., 1391; Law and Order, 2014).

    Conclusion

    Comparison of two ANFIS and RBF neural network models According to comparisons of ANFIS and RBF neural network models, the two models were trained to predict dust. The results obtained from the training of the ANFIS neural network model at best, the RMSE value was 11.67 and the R2 value was 0/5879. But the results obtained from the training of the RBF neural network model, at best, were RMSE equal to 2.19 and the R2 value was 0.9854. By comparing these two models, it was finally concluded that the performance of the RBF neural network model was better. According to the modeling and the results obtained from the comparison of the models, the accuracy and reliability of the RBF neural network model was confirmed for prediction, then the prediction of the RBF neural network model was used.

    Results

    The zoning of dust phenomena in dusty regions of Iran using TOPSIS The results of the implementation of the Topsis model, using the degree of importance of the criteria derived from the entropy method, indicate that, in terms of dust intensity, places more and less dusty for the next 14 years in dusty areas Iran, three stations of Abadan, Masjed Soleyman and Ahvaz were exposed to dust (1, 95%, and 81%), respectively, for simulated years. The northern stations of the study area including Khoy, Boroujen and Ahar showed a lower dust intensity with percentages (0.1, 0.4 and 0.6), respectively. According to TOPSIS model, south west and west of Iran were exposed to dust for simulated years.

    Keywords: simulation, Hazard, RBF, ANFIS models, Iran's dusty areas, Statistical analysis
  • Mojtaba Mahdian Mahforouzi, Aliakbar Shamsipour *, Mostafa Karimi, Peyman Zawarreza Pages 37-50
    Introduction

    Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) is the lowest layer of the Troposphere affected by the land surface. Unlike the free atmosphere above, the land surface has a significant effect on the ABL and this layer, is the only part of the atmosphere that the effect of friction is seen and the diurnal variation of temperature is witnessed. In fact, the ABL plays the role of a dealer of energy and mass between the land surface and the free atmosphere. Many efforts have been undertaken to understand the behavior of the ABL due to its importance since almost all human activity (except aviation) forms in this layer. This, however, should be mentioned that those efforts are in a strong correlation with the development level of the country and the methods to study the ABL varies country by country. The study methods for ABL observations are divided into three main branches: a) Modeling and Simulation (using dynamic and numerical models); b) Numerical estimation (using atmospheric profiles); and c) Using High-tech devices (Remote Sensing, RADAR, and LiDAR).Like most climatology phenomena, the ABL probably owns some regular pattern in different time scales. In this research, the variation of the ABL over the city of Tehran is investigated in an annual time scale. The reason to choose the city is the high population, high urban concentration, and constant integration with inversion and air pollution, and above all, lack of knowledge about the ABL over the city.

    Data and methods

    In order to conduct a thorough research, long term data was required. Therefore, 30 years of data were gathered in daily time scale (at 00:00 GMT and 12:00 GMT equal to 03:30 and 15:30 Tehran Mean Time respectively). Total data records reached a sum of 10958 for each parameter. Data were collected from the European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the Atmospheric Science Department of the University of Wyoming. Data gathered from the ECMWF was in NetCDF format and the air profile gathered was in Notepad form.To have solid results, the data should be of high certainty and reliability. To investigate the reliability of the ECMWF data, the ABL height was calculated for some days employing the Advanced Parcel Method which defines the top of the ABL as the height in which the virtual potential temperature is equal to that of the surface values. Using Cochran's method to estimate the volume of the test subject from a society, 372 days were randomly selected and the ABL height was calculated based on radiosonde profiles. Then, the correlation coefficient and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the two data sets were calculated and since the coefficients were significant, data was used further. As for the maps, data gathered from the ECMWF was averaged using the ECMWF tools. This tool uses the R (or Rstudio) software and the RBridge to calculate integrated NetCDF data. The maps were drawn in ArcMap 10.

    Results and discussion

    Mean daily ABL height was located almost at 850 meters above ground level (AGL). Of course in the average state of the highest elevation in the layer were occurred on the south and southwest of Tehran with a height of 873 meter and the lowest elevation were in the northwest of Tehran city with an altitude of 745 meter. While nighttime ABL descends to almost 80 meters AGL, the daytime ABL rises to 2300 meter AGL. The ABL height has experienced a total rise of 5 meters per day in the total time period of the research. Spatially, the lowest ABL heights were experienced in northeastern part of the city and the highest ABL were measured in south and southwestern part of the city. Also, the correlation between the mean daily data (the ECMWF uses eight data measurements to calculate the mean daily data) and the maximum and minimum averages were calculated. The results showed that the maximum values are of higher influence in mean daily data rather than the minimum.The findings also indicate that, during all 6 periods of the study time scale, the position of the minimum and maximum boundary layer values are almost the same. High values occur at south and southwest of the city and low values occur at northeast of the city. There is also a midsection area that is usually extended from Kan valley to the east of the city. There is also a sign of some core area, especially the one located above the Pardisan Park that sometimes affects the ABL patterns.Furthermore, the correlation between the ABL and some climatic parameters (e.g. sunshine hours, surface temperature, surface heat and moisture flux, relative humidity, air pressure, wind speed at 0, and 10 meter height AGL) was calculated. The results indicated that there is some significant correlation between the ABL and climatic parameters. The highest correlation was calculated between the ABL variation and the surface temperature. Seemingly, the closer the measured parameters to the surface are, the higher the correlation coefficient will be.

    Conclusion

    The Boundary layer height fluctuates between 80 meters AGL at nights to 2300 meters in daylight. The average height has increased almost five meters per year. However, since 1988 to 2012 it has risen and after 2012 it experienced subsidence. Both in minimum and maximum, the highest boundary layer height has been measured in south and southwestern part of the city and the lowest values were measured in northeastern of the city. The iso-height lines are extended from northwest to southeast. This is probably due to the effect of Alborz Mountain rang surrounding Tehran in northern edges. The ABL showed high correlation with some climatic parameters but the coefficient between the ABL height and some other parameters were insignificant. Apparently, the closer to the surface is the measured parameters, the higher the coefficient. Moreover, regarding the correlation coefficient and the root mean square error results, the Advanced Parcel Method seem to be of enough reliability to calculate the boundary layer height based on radiosonde profiles.

    Keywords: Boundary Layer Height, Radiosonde, ECMWF, Advanced Box Method, Tehran
  • Abbasali Dadashirodbari, Mahuod Ahmadi *, Alireza Shakiba Pages 51-64
    Introduction

    Aerosols are solid or liquid particles in the air with a typical radius of 0.001 to 100 μm, which have a significant and harmful effect on human health. Aerosols come from both natural and human sources, and in recent years, human activities associated with urbanization and industrialization have led to a steady increase in the amount of these particles in the airborne state. The study of the precise variability of the AI index in the long run can provide useful information on aggregates, their origin, spatial temporal variation, climate induction and its feedback in the climate system. This study the purpose of the seasonal evaluation of the Aerosol Absorption Index (AAI) was based on TOMS and OMI sensor data in Iran.

    Materials and methods

    In this study, TOMS data from two Nimbus 7 satellites (1992-1979) and Earth Probe (1996-2005) and OMI (2015-2005) satellite EOS Aura The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to identify the Aerosol Index trend.

    Results and discussion

    Significant reduction in the trend The TOMS Satellite (EP) Earth Probe's Aerosol Index (AI) is far from waiting for dusty days and Aura satellite data. TOMS sensor data is not recommended for decomposition of the EP, because since 2001, due to the lack of proper calibration of this sensor, data from this sensor and the satellite provide irrational figures;The results have shown that TOMS sensor data is not suitable for the study of the EP, since since 2001, the data of this meter is not calibrated. The maximum incremental increase of the Aerosol index (AI) for OMI and the maximum decreasing trend of the Aerosol index (AI) for the winter (TOMS satellite satellite EP) was calculated in autumn (TOMS sensor of two Nimbus7 and EP satellites). In spring, the soil moisture content decreased and the activation of dust springs decreased relative to the winter season from areas with decreasing trend and increased areas with increasing trend. In summer, areas with an increasing trend based on Nimbus7 satellite (100%) and Aura (96.74%) of the total pixels are covered. Maximum incremental rate and also the maximum average value of the Aerosol index (AI) trend are obtained based on the OMI Satellite Aura sensor in the fall season. The increase in the Aerosol Index (AI) in Iran is due to environmental and climatic conditions. The summer Shamal wind, the dynamic and thermal patterns of West Asia, and the Indus Low Pressure, have the greatest role in increasing the hygiene of Iran.

    Conclusion

    The maximum trend in the general trend of the AI indicator in Iran in winter is the TOMS satellite Earth Probe satellite in the northeast and central parts, which, as said, is due to the lack of calibration of the sensor and the satellite. The maximum incremental trend of the Iranian Aerosol Index (AI) for the OMI and the maximum decrease of the Aerosol Index (AI) was calculated for the fall (Numbus7 Satellite TOMS Sensor). The average trend of Iran's AI index for winter is not significant for any of the two sensors and three satellites. In the spring, the intensity and percentage increase was increased relative to the winter season. The growing trend in most parts of Iran is associated with dusty events originating from dry and desert lands of southwestern Iran, especially in Iraq. In the summer, Nimbus7 and Aura satellite data showed more than 95% of the country's total traffic. Zones with increasing trend of TOMS sensor Nimbus7 satellites are seen in all metropolis of Iran with 500,000 to 1 million and more than one million people, and no negative trend was calculated in any cities. In the autumn, we see the maximum percentage and the intensity of the significant increase of the Aerosol Index (AI based on the OMI satellite satellite Aura in the country. This trend can be correlated with decreasing precipitation and the inhibition of the following particles in the airborne atmosphere due to reduced moisture content. The increase in the trend of Huawei index in Iran is due to environmental conditions such as land use, soil moisture, drought and ... The role of HomoSperm regional circulation systems such as Caspian Sea–Hindu Kush Index (CasHKI), negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)) with fluctuations, Shamal winds, short-term phenomena such as frontal systems, low-level jets (LLJs), and low pressure of the document on the transit of these particles are significant

    Keywords: Absorption Aerosol Index (AAI), TOMS Sensor, OMI Sensor, Mann-Kendal Test (MK), Iran
  • Mona Zolghadr, Omid Alizadeh *, Parviz Irannejad, Farhang Ahmadi Givi Pages 65-84
    Introduction

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of alternating warm El Niño and cold La Niña events occurs when the tropical Pacific Ocean and its overlying atmosphere change from its natural state for at least several consecutive months (Neelin et al., 1998). The neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is derived by the strong zonally asymmetric state of the equatorial Pacific and is characterized by surface easterly trade winds along the equatorial Pacific, rising motion, deep convection and heavy rainfall over the western equatorial Pacific, westerly winds at upper levels and sinking motion over the eastern equatorial Pacific (Bjerknes, 1969). El Niño is characterized by weak and La Niña by strong zonal SST gradients, accompanied respectively by weakening and strengthening of the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific (McPhaden et al. 2006). As a result, compared to the neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, convective systems intensify in the western tropical Pacific and slightly shift to the west during La Niña events, but shift to the central and eastern tropical Pacific during El Niño events. Since this early recognition of the coupling between the atmosphere and the Pacific ocean by Bjerknes (1966) and Bjerknes (1969), major advances have beenmade toward a comprehensive understanding of the physics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This is particularly achived through development of complex climatemodels for realistic simulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle (Bellenger et al., 2014), and great observational advances that have been made during the international Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program conducted between 1985 and 1994 (McPhaden et al., 1998). El Niño or the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a quasi-periodic natural phenomenon that occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation not only influences the climate of nearby regions, but it is the most important natural climate factor that contributes to the interannual climate variability over many regions across the globe, including North America (e.g. Yu et al., 2015; Guo et al., 2017), the Middle East (e.g. Alizadeh-choobari, 2017; Alizaeh-Choobari et al., 2018a, Alizaeh-Choobari et al., 2018b), East Asia (e.g. Feng and Li, 2011), Southeast Asia (e.g. Lee et al., 2017) and the Indian subcontinent (e.g. Kumar et al., 2006). Depending on the location of the maximum sea surface temperature in the eastern or central equatorial Pacific, the eastern Pacific El Niño or the central Pacific El Niño are identified, while a mixed event of the eastern and central Pacific El Niño events has been also diagnosed.

    Materials and methods

    In this study, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis Interim (ERA-Interim) monthly dataset with a horizontal resolution of 0.75º  0.75º, and the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 5 (ERSSTv5) dataset, the phase of ENSO and the type of El Niño events during the period 1979-2016 are determined. In addition, characteristics of the 1997-98 eastern Pacific El Niño, the 2009-10 central Pacific El Niño and the 2015-16 El Niño, which is a mixed event of the eastern and central Pacific El Niño, are investigated.

    Results and discussion

    Analysis indicateed that during the period 1979-2016, 1979-80, 1982-83, 1986-87, 1987-88, 1991-92, 1994-95, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2009-10, 2014-15 and 2015-16 have been the years for which three-month running means of the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for 5 consecutive periods became greater or equal to 0.5 degree Celcius, indicating the occurrence of El Niño in these years. Using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and by examining spatial correlation between sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and results of the empirical orthogonal function, the eastern and central Pacific El Niños during the period 1979-2016 are determined. The 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Niño events are both categorized as extreme El Niño events. The 2009-10 El Niño is weaker than the other two events, but over the last century, it has been the strongest central Pacific El Niño event. Results indicated that the onset of all these three events was in June, while some differences are found between termination of the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Niños, including different time of dissipation for these events. All these three events have shown characteristics of classic El Niño events, such that anomalous positive and negative sea surface temperature are seen in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific, respectively. Nevertheless, maximum positive sea surface temperature is formed in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the 1997-98 El Niño, which is different from the 2009-10 El Niño event with the maximum sea surface temperature in the central (near the dateline) equatorial Pacific. In fact, maximum positive sea surface temperature anomalies are located in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific during the 1997-98 and 2009-10 El Niño events, respectively, while it extends from central to eastern equatorial Pacific during the 2015-16 El Niño. Intensities of the maximum sea surface temperature anomalies and mean sea level pressure have been greater during the 1997-98 El Niño compared to those during the 2009-10 event, indicating that central Pacific El Niños are generally less intense than eastern Pacific El Niño events. It is shown that positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the 2015-16 El Niño event cover a larger area, extending from the central to the eastern equatorial Pacific. It is found that both sea surface temperature and mean sea level pressure anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were larger during the 1997-98 eastern Pacific El Niño than that of the 2009-10 central Pacific El Niño. This suggests that the central Pacific El Niño events are generally weaker than the eastern Pacific El Niño events. In all of the three El Niño events, positive (negative) geopotential height anomalies at 300 hPa pressure level in the equatorial Pacific are collocated with positive (negative) sea surface temperature anomalies. Geopotential height anomalies in the upper levels over the tropical Pacific influence weather patterns of other regions.It is discussed and shown that different geopotential height anomalies at upper levels of the equatorial Pacific during the three El Niño events have led to different teleconnections across the globe. For example, temperature anomalies in the Antarctic during the 2009-10 El Niño were opposite to those during the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Niño events.

    Conclusion

    Analysis of the ERA-Interim dataset with the horizontal resolution of 0.75º  0.75º for the period 1979-2016 indicated that the eastern, central and mixed El Niño events have generally different characteristics in the equatorial Pacific. As a result, teleconnection patterns of these events across the globe are also found to be different.

    Keywords: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Eastern Pacific El Niño, Central Pacific El Niño, Mixed El Niño, Teleconnections
  • Omid Reza Kefayat Motlagh, Mahmood Khosravi *, Sayed Abolfazl Masoodian, MohammadSadegh Keykhosravi Kiani, Mohsen Hamidian Pour Pages 85-94
    Introduction

    Today, the assessment and control of environmental and climate change at the regional and global levels is of particular importance for monitoring the current situation and for predicting future changes. Albedo (or solar reflectivity) plays an important role in the thermal behavior of pavements and other ground surfaces and their resultant impacts on humans and the environment (Li, 2016). Therefore, the study of its temporal and spatial behavior can be a tool for understanding environmental changes. Albedo, as one of the important components in the Earth's Radiation balance, is the ratio of reflected flux density to incident flux density, referenced to some surface. Albedos commonly tend to be broadband ratios, usually referring either to the entire spectrum of solar radiation or just to the visible portion. More precise work requires the use of spectral albedos, referenced to specific wavelengths. Visible albedos of natural surfaces range from low values of ∼0.04 for calm, deep water and overhead sun, to > 0.8 for fresh snow or thick clouds. Many surfaces show an increase in albedo with increasing solar zenith angle (American Meteorological Society, 2019). Remote sensing is one of the most suitable tools for measuring albedo. So many researchers have used it and also evaluated its algorithm (Jackson et al., 1987; Schaaf et al., 2002; Wang et al., 2018).

    Data and methods

    In this study, for the Assessment long-term mean value of albedo Iran from the first band of MCD43A4, the Modis sensor was used in the range of 0.62-0.67 microns during the period from 2000/03/20 to 2018/03/20 for 6574 days. The reason for choosing this product is because it has the Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF). Indeed BRDF determines that when the radiation energy reaches a certain level (an opaque surface), it is reflected in the other direction. OThe data of this sensor is available as separate tiles at 1200 x 1200 km and Iran generally falls into six tiles. Of course, based on the Inpolygon function in MATLAB software, grid points outside of Iran were clipped. Iran was divided into 4 regions based on digital number of pixels. The basis of division is the quart values (first, second, and third quartiles). After zoning, statistical characteristics including the average, minimum, maximum, variance, range of changes and coefficient of skewness and Kurtosis of the cells located in each region were calculated. These statistical characteristics provide an opportunity to compare albedo in the different regions of Iran. In the end, four seaboard areas in Iran were mapped and its relation with height was calculated.

    Results and Discussion

    Table 1 shows the statistical characteristics of the red band albedo Iran during the study period. The average, minimum, maximum of the first quartile is 53.15, 1.45 and 85.18 respectively. The coefficient of variation in this class is 21.76%. The highest coefficient of variation is seen in the first quartile, but this may be due to the number of pixels affected. In general, the coefficient of variation shows that the highest coefficient of variation occurs at very low or high levels of Albedo. A long-term albedo map was developed for the time period (2000-2018) based on remote sensing data... After preparing the aforementioned map based on the thresholds obtained from the quartile method, Iran was divided into four distinct areas in terms of albedo. The first area covers about 2% of the total area of the country where is most commonly found in the south-east of the country, the Caspian coast and the water areas within the land, such as Lake Urmia. The second zone covers the range of 22-19 percent and is seen in different parts of the country. The third zone is in the range of 26-22% and is further dispersed in the center of the country. The fourth region has a range of 62-26%, which shows the highest albedo. In this area, snow-covered mountains such as the Alborz and Zagros heights and the zones that have been stained with white evaporation deposits over time are seen. Larger parts of this area, due to permanent snow or evaporation deposits, have albedo more than the average planet Earth (24%). There is a good relationship between albedo and height, although this is a completely nonlinear relationship. .. As up to 1200 m altitude, with increasing altitude, albedo decreased and at an altitude of 1400 to 1200 m varied from 12 to 36% due to different land use. From a height of 1,400 meters, the strong link between Albedo and the altitude of the sea level in Iran is seen. As Albedo increased with altitude due to lower temperature and also snowfall, it reaches nearly 60% at Altitude 4000 meters. In general, it can be said that this relative relationship between Albedo and altitude of sea level in Iran is due to the complexity of topography and land use. As a result, the relationship is straight above altitudes of 1,400 meters, and with increasing altitude, the albedo is elevated, and at altitudes less than 1000 meters indirectly, and with increasing altitude, there is a decrease in albedo.

    Conclusions

    The MODIS sensor produces albedo the surface of the earth continuously on a global scale with low spatial resolution and provides free access to the public. In this study, for measuring the average long-term albedo of Iran, the daily data of Albedo in the region of Iran was extracted from the MODIS website during the period from 2000/03/20 to 2018/03/20 for 6574 days. Then, based on nearly 45 billion cells, the long-term average of Iran's albedo was calculated. The results showed that albedo of Iran with an average of 21% is close to the albedo of the planet average which depends on latitude and topography and land surface conditions in Iran. The relationship between albedo and altitude from sea level was studied. The results of this section indicate that this relationship is a completely nonlinear relationship. So in the first altitudes up to 1200 meters, the albedo has a decreasing behavior, and between the altitudes of 1200 to 1400 meters there is a steady trend and from 1400 to higher the albedo behavior is quite increasing. The increasing behavior of albedo well illustrates the role of snow cover in the highlands. In general, it can be concluded that this relationship is due to the diversity of topography and the type of the earth's surfaces. For this reason, this relationship is direct in elevations above 1400 meters. As the altitude increases, the albedo is increased, and at elevations less than 1000 meters the relations indirectly (by increasing the elevation, a decrease in albedo is observed).

    Keywords: Iran, Quartile, Albedo, MODIS, Long-term Mean
  • Mina Mirian, Mostafa Karampoor *, Mohamad Moradi, Hushang Ghaemi Pages 95-111
    Introduction

    Changes and fluctuations in shape and type of precipitation have positive and negative effects and have an important role in different aspects of human life. So that the change in them produces negative and positive secondary feedback in other climatic parameters followed by changes in hydrological cycles, water resources, natural and artificial ecosystems, human and animal habitats, security and economics. Therefore, the first parameter that can be considered is the study of drought. The presence of many parts of Iran in the dry and semi-arid belt of the world, on the one hand, and the determinant role that play at the water supply in the country on the other hand, thus it is important to be aware of the trend of rainfall changes in Iran. The nature of the heavy rainfall and the consequences of this have caused this phenomenon to be of particular importance in environmental planning and water resource management. The heavy rainfall affects the planning, design, operation and management of water resources. Therefore, it is necessary to know the characteristics of the behavior of such rainfall in order to predict and better manage water resources of the country. Heavy rainfall is one of the natural hazards that being aware of their occurrence can help reduce potential damage. Therefore, the analysis of the synoptic and dynamic conditions of atmospheric circulation patterns is very important in identifying the factors affecting the occurrence of heavy rainfall, in particular, when these types of rainfall can cause floods and catastrophic consequences by converting runoff. Thus, with respect to the importance of the subject, the present study aimed to identify the dynamic and thermodynamic patterns that govern the day of the event of heavy winter precipitation.

    Materials and methods

    In order to study of the dynamical and thermodynamic patterns of the studied day, the vorticity dynamical quantities include relative vorticity, absolute vorticity, Rossby-Ertel vorticity at pressure level, convergence and divergence, vertical speed at high system and dynamical quantities of potential temperature written and defined. Then, to analyze the temporal variations of the above quantities, their graphs were drawn and analyzed in the selected range of 0 to 80 degrees longitude and latitude 10 to 60 degrees north for the 0000 and 1200 Greenwich hours. It should be noted that the maps of the day before and after the day were also examined at different levels to further understand the patterns governing the day of heavy rainfall, but to reduce the amount of content, only the maps of the day of heavy rainfall occurred at 0000 and 1200 Greenwich are provided.

    Results and discussion

    Examination of the thermodynamic and dynamical quantities during heavy rainfall events of the case series of winter 1960-2010 shows that on the day of the heavy rainfall event, December 5, 1974, the intensities of these quantities at 1200 Greenwich hour were greater than other times. Therefore, it can be said that the peak of heavy rainfall at this day is 1200 hours where the dynamical and thermodynamic quantities changes are as follows:- Increasing the potential temperature vertical gradient across the country; this increases the velocity of the subtropical jet as well as increases the potential vorticity values in the upper atmosphere.- The formation of a strong convergence zone at the country level and its adaptation to the mid-level divergence zones of the atmosphere that has led to the dynamic rise of the air in most areas. The high volume of upward atmospheric movements at this time has occurred in the western half, especially in the windward slopes of the Zagros Mountains.- Increase in relative vorticity and absolute vorticity of 500 hp levels corresponding to southwest - northeast flows of eastern part of the trough.- Increasing the potential vorticity values of Rossby-Ertel pressure levels of 500 and 50 hp and the co-entropy level of 330 Kelvin in the western part of the country due to factors such as potential temperature gradient increase, absolute vorticity increase, as well as increased static stability in the upper atmosphere.

    Conclusion

    The results show that during the event of heavy rainfall, a strong convergence zone was formed at the country level, which caused the dynamic ascension of the atmosphere in accordance with the atmospheric divergence zone. Under such conditions, the relative vorticity values increases corresponding to the eastern part of the trough, which also results in an increase in absolute vorticity values. In addition, at this time, the potential temperature vertical gradient is also increasing throughout the country. The Rossby-Ertel potential vorticity values of 500 and 50 hp and 330 Kelvin co-entropy levels also increase due to factors such as potential temperature gradient increase, absolute vorticity increase, as well as increased static stability at upper atmospheric levels.The results show that during the event of heavy rainfall, a strong convergence zone was formed at the country level, which caused the dynamic ascension of the atmosphere in accordance with the atmospheric divergence zone. Under such conditions, the relative vorticity values increases corresponding to the eastern part of the trough, which also results in an increase in absolute vorticity values. In addition, at this time, the potential temperature vertical gradient is also increasing throughout the country. The Rossby-Ertel potential vorticity values of 500 and 50 hp and 330 Kelvin co-entropy levels also increase due to factors such as potential temperature gradient increase, absolute vorticity increase, as well as increased static stability at upper atmospheric levels.The results show that during the event of heavy rainfall, a strong convergence zone was formed at the country level, which caused the dynamic ascension of the atmosphere in accordance with the atmospheric divergence zone. Under such conditions, the relative vorticity values increases corresponding to the eastern part of the trough, which also results in an increase in absolute vorticity values. In addition, at this time, the potential temperature vertical gradient is also increasing throughout the country. The Rossby-Ertel potential vorticity values of 500 and 50 hp and 330 Kelvin co-entropy levels also increase due to factors such as potential temperature gradient increase, absolute vorticity increase, as well as increased static stability at upper atmospheric levels.

    Keywords: heavy precipitation, Precipitation, Dynamical, convergence, Divergence
  • Saied Jahanbakhsh *, GholamHasan Mohammadi, Vahid Khojasteh Gholami, Asma Azade Pages 113-127
    Introduction

    Precipitation is the result of complex atmospheric and oceanic phenomena and it has a special importance due to its vital role among other climatic events and is more complex than other climatic phenomena. Iran is located in the world's arid and semi-arid belt and receives more than half of its annual rainfall in the winter. teleconnection is the alternating and continuous anomalies of atmospheric patterns and particularly pressure on the planetary scales with relative prolonged return period. So it can be considered one of the key elements on climatic forecasts. Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), recognized in 1961,is one of the main oscillations on the planetary scale in the stratosphere layer with a mean return period of 26 months and is also one of the main components of short-term fluctuations in the climate. QBO can vary the surface weather with effect on polar atmospheric patterns. It can also affect the amount of ozone depletion on high geographical latitudes, in addition to the effect on solar cycle and connection with other teleconnections such as ENSO resulting in the climate change of the earth.

    Material and Methods

    The total monthly precipitation from 100 synoptic stations from Iranian Meteorological Organization and QBO index data of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) during 1988-2017were used as the basic input data of the study. First, rainfalls from December to February were considered as winter precipitation and the corresponding QBO index was used. Then, precipitation data were standardized in order to make comparable data with QBO. The normalized data of winter rainfall as dependent variable and QBO index as independent variable were entered into the STATSTICA software. Pearson correlation coefficients were performed between them in each station. No simultaneous effect may be observed due to long distance between QBO generation areas and Iran, therefore, a three months lack also was tested, and hence, the correlation coefficients between autumn QBO and winter precipitation of the stations were calculated. In order to validate of correlation coefficients, precipitation difference of the stations in the positive phases of QBO compared with negative phases. In the next step, the correlation coefficients outputs entered into the GIS environment and mentioned maps were drawn using IDW approach. Finally, the trend chart of the winter precipitation anomaly was prepared to study the impacts of autumn and winter QBO on it.

    Result and Discussion

    The results showed that there is a significant inverse relationship between the positive phases of autumn QBO with winter rainfall in most stations, especially in the central and southern parts of Iran. The increase in the intensity of the positive phases in autumn QBO causes subnormal winter rainfall in the central and southern parts of the country. On the other hand, the occurrence of negative autumn QBO causes a minor increase in the rainfall rates of most parts of Iran. However, the occurrence of rainy winter in the case of autumn negative phases is not conclusive. But, the winter time extreme negative phases of QBO index lead to a significant decrease in the precipitation rates of most areas of the country especially southern and western parts, while the positive phases lead to minor decrease (increase) in the precipitation rates of the southern (northern)parts of Iran. The separate study of positive and negative phases of QBO in autumn and winter seasons revealed a contradictory effect on winter rainfalls in different parts of Iran, and in short, the effect of QBO on winter precipitation is lower in northern parts. The final results showed that the occurrence of rainy winter has been linked to the mild phases of QBO index in the autumn and winter. It can be concluded that the QBO teleconnection is one of the main factors controlling winter precipitation in different parts of the country, especially in the southern, central and western sectors. The main and tangible role of QBO is reducing the amount of precipitation. Meanwhile, there is no significant relationship between QBO index and winter precipitation of the northern parts of Iran, especially the northwest and Caspian Sea coasts.

    Conclusion

    In general, the correlation between the autumn and winter QBO index and winter precipitation is negative in the western half and positive in the eastern and southern parts of the country. So, by moving from the extreme negative values of QBO to the positive ones, a relative partial reduction is observed in the precipitation rate of northwest regions, western sides of Alborz Mountains and the western parts respectively, and there is an increase in other parts especially in the Caspian Sea coasts and the southern Iran. The autumn phases of QBO index are slightly more related to winter precipitation. Unlike the previous condition, there is a negative correlation between the positive phases of QBO and winter precipitation rates and this is more significant in most regions especially in central and southern parts of Iran. The highest correlation coefficient (-0.65 to -0.82) was observed on the shores of the Persian Gulf and the positive phases of this index happened to decrease the precipitation rates in the central and southern regions of Iran. There is no significant relationship between the negative phases of autumn QBO and winter precipitation rates. On the other hand, positive phases of winter QBO reduced precipitation rate in south and southwest regions and partially increased rainfalls in the northwest of Iran. However, the amount of rainfall decrement is more significant in the southern regions. Also, the occurrence of negative phases in the winter reduced the precipitation rate in most parts especially in the western parts, the coast of Persian Gulf and some parts of the eastern Iran. The occurrence of rainy winter has always been linked to the gentle phases of QBO index and it has not been associated with strong positive and negative phases. It seems that the extreme positive phases in autumn and the extreme negative phases in winter time have more significant effects on the reduction of rainfall in most parts of Iran especially in southern regions.

    Keywords: teleconnection, QBO, Winter precipitation, Iran
  • Tayebeh Shojaee, Gholamabas Fallah Ghalhari *, Abdoreza Kashki Pages 129-145
    Introduction

    Climate change and global warming will endanger the production of agricultural products and food security in the world . The horticulture sector and fruit trees are affected by the climate because of the long distance to the production. Any changes in temperature patterns will change the length of the growth season, change the phonological and physiological stages. Air temperature is often considered as the main factor affecting the phonological phases of fruit trees in temperate climates. The increase in the Earth's surface temperature due to greenhouse gas emissions has created a phenomenon called climate change. The perceived effects of climate change on the daily lives of communities around the world have raised the public's attention to climate change. The transformation of the climate and its consequences from different aspects on the planet are not covered by anyone. Today, the challenge of climate change and its effects is the most important challenge facing the country. Fruit trees are subjected to climate change as one of the main sources of agricultural economics and employment in the country. Considering the importance of grape product in the country's economy, it is important to study the effects of climate change on this tree in the country. Therefore, the present study aimed at revealing the effects of climate change on the time of phonological stages of Grape tree in Iran based on the output of new CMIP5 models and representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP).

    Materials and methods

    The realm of this research is the cultivation of grape tree in Iran. The major areas of grape tree cultivation in Iran are located in the northern, western, and eastern regions of high and cold. In the present study, two types of data were used to analyze the purpose and content of the research using statistical-analytical method. The data of the baseline or past period has been extracted from IRIMO by the actual statistics of 55 meteorological stations in vineyard cultivation areas. This observation data includes the statistical period (1985-2005). Future data as simulated data is based on the output of CMIP5 models. This data has been processed in two routings RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 from 2020 to 2090. In the upcoming period, the models (BCC-CSM1.1, MRI.CGCM3, GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM and (GISS-E2-R from the CMIP5 models of the MarksimGCM database were used in the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios). The results showed that the MRI.CGCM3 model has a higher ability and ability to simulate the future than other models.

    Results and discussion

    The results showed that the MRI.CGCM3 model, considering the higher weight, than the other general circulation models proposed, has a higher ability to simulate temperature and precipitation behavior in the future period than the base period. The model has the minimum, maximum and precipitation temperature for weight, respectively, 0.40, 0.39 and 0.29, respectively. Therefore, from the model data, the in-built comparison model of the CMIP5 models, based on RCP radiative forcing scenarios, was used to assess and detect the effects of climate change in the upcoming period. The results showed that the air temperature in the pessimistic and middle run pattern of RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, respectively, would increase compared to the baseline period. This increase in the pessimism pattern was higher than the midterm pattern. The changes in the far future period (2056-2090) will be greater than the upcoming mid-term (2020-2055). The magnitude of these changes in the RCP8.5 induction trajectory in the period (2020-2055) and (2056-2090) at the selected station level was 1.6 and 2.4 degrees Celsius, respectively, and in the RCP4.5 induction line , Is 1.2 and 2.3 degrees Celsius, respectively, relative to the base period.

    Conclusion

    Output of the overall model of the MRI.CGCM3 model in illustrating the climate change of the upcoming period has less simulation abilities and errors than the observation period or the baseline period. The results showed that in the most pessimistic case in the middle and distant future, 1.6 and 4.2 degrees Celsius, the minimum temperature would increase compared to the baseline period. The results showed that the most changes occur during the occurrence of phonological stages in cold regions and high latitudes of vineyard cultivations. Due to the increase in the temperature of the air in the future period, the date of occurrence of the phonological stages of the grapevine will also change. Due to the increase in the air temperature of the future period, the threshold of biota will occur ahead, and as a result, the vinegrowing period will begin earlier than the previous period. So, in a pessimistic evolutionary pattern, the threshold of biota timing will be ahead in the middle of the future, 8 to 16 days, and the flowering time will be 7 days to 16 days. Therefore, one of the major effects of climate change on fruit trees will evolve in the form of a change in the time of occurrence of the phonological stages. In the future period, the deviation from the optimal temperature conditions of the phonological stages of the grapevine will be increased. In the futures period, the amount of deviations and temperature anomalies will increase significantly from the optimum temperature range over the base period. Cold regions and high latitudes. The regions of northwest and northeast will have the highest deviation from optimal temperature conditions. The range of areas with high temperature deviation was observed at the phonological stage of germination and flowering. The flowering stage shows the highest deviation from optimal temperature conditions. From the south to the north of the grapevine area, the amount of deviation from optimal temperature conditions will be increased.Changes and displacement of the threshold times of the grapevine biomass increase the risk of possible dangers of frost and late frost in most vineyard cultivation areas, especially the northern half. Selection of species and varieties resistant to and adapted to the climatic conditions of each region is important. In the future period, the range of cultivars of the grapevine will decrease. In the future, the final area of the grapevine area will be limited to 12.64824123 hectares. In fact, due to the rising air temperature in the future, areas susceptible to Ango cultivation in the southern, central, and eastern regions of the grapevine area will lose their climate capability.

    Keywords: climate change, CMIP5, RCP scenarios, Iran, grapes
  • Saman Nadizadeh Shorabeh, Sara Attarchi *, Foad Minaei Pages 147-164
    Introduction

    Biophysical properties of vegetation, temperature and surface moisture are key parameters to control and evaluate the physical and chemical processes of the land surface. Biophysical properties can be used to monitor various applications such as urban heat island, climate change and drought. Access to timely information and awareness of the changes in land’ s biophysical properties are required in integrated management and sustainable development. Erath’s surface biophysical properties can be successful being retrieved using different types of remote sensing data. From 1970s, remote sensing data provides unique information in surveying dynamic phenomena. Remote sensing sensors provide data in wide area with a repetitive manner.Remote sensing sensors collect Earth surface data at different part of electromagnetic spectrum, i.e. optic, thermal and microwave. As a result, the same phenomenon may provide different responses depending on the radiation’s wavelength. These responses are complementary and the joint use of them offers more reliable information. That is the reason, multi-sensor approaches gain more attention. Multi-spectral optical sensors such as Landsat have been widely used in earth surface studies; however, their applications are limited mainly in the presence of smoke, fog and clouds. In contrary, radar sensors (e.g. Synthetic Aperture Radar, SAR) operates well even in cloudy sky. SAR sensors are sensitive to the moisture content and structure (shape, direction, roughness) of the surface. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to evaluate the efficiency of radar bands for extracting surface biophysical properties.

    Materials and methods

    For the purpose of comprehensive study, three different areas with different types of land cover were considered as the study areas. The first study area, located in the east of Ardebil, encompasses bare land. The second study area is located in the southeast of Ardebil with agricultural land use. The third study area in Mazandaran province is around Noor city. Land cover is dense natural forest.Landsat-8 and Sentinel-1 satellite images dated on 2019 were acquired. The Landsat-8 image has already been geo-referenced with UTM coordinates system, zone 39. The coordinate system for Sentinel images is WGS84 ellipsoid. We used the GRD product which has VV and VH polarizations.In this study, pre-processing steps were done to prepare images including atmospheric correction (Landsat images) and geometric (Sentinel images). FLAASH algorithm has been used for atmospheric correction. Next, spectral indices were computed from Landsat visible and infrared bands to represent surface biophysical properties. Single-channel algorithm is used to calculate surface temperature. Multiple linear regression was applied to model surface biophysical properties by the help of Sentinel polarimetric bands. Finally, based on these model, surface biophysical properties maps were driven.

    Results and discussion

    In this study, 18 spectral indices were extracted from Landsat image. It should be noted that some of these indices are normalized and some are not normalized, so for all indices to be comparable the values of all indices were set to zero and one normal.Case study 1 In the first study area, radar’s backscattering values showed more significant relationships with LST, NDBI and IPVI indices, while there were weak relationships among radar’s backscattering values with MNDWI, GDVI and SR indices. High coefficient of determination between radar responses and LST values could be justified by the effect of soil moisture on soil temperature and radar backscattering, as well. That’s why, radar responses can predict LST values. Case study 2 The investigation of the relationship among spectral indices and radar bands shows that radar bands have high potential to extract biophysical properties in this region. Among 18 spectral indices, EVI, MTVI1 and MTVI2 indices were highly correlated with the radar bands. LST, SGI and SR indices showed the weakest correlations with radar bands. This indicates, LST, SGI and SR could not be predicted by backscattering values in agricultural land. Case study 3 In the third study area, MNDWI showed a high correlation with radar responses. MNDWI index was first developed to study the amount of water available to represent vegetation health. Radar bands are also highly sensitive to moisture content. Therefore, it is not surprising that a high correlation between the radar bands and MNDWI index were reported for the third study area, as it is a high moisture forest area. The lowest correlation was observed between radar bands with NDBI spectral index with correlation coefficient of 0.418. The reason for this low value is the nature of the study area, because the study area covers with a dense vegetation and the NDBI index has been developed to extract the built-up area.

    Conclusion

    Remote sensing technology provides valuable information in patterns recognition and changes of the biophysical properties of the earth's surface. Optical data have good spatial, spectral and radiometric resolution and have been used in a variety of applications. However, optical data is not available in all seasons because the presence of smoke, fog, clouds limit their availability. In contrast to optical data, SAR sensors has the ability to acquire data in all weather conditions. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to investigate the capability of radar data to extract biophysical properties of the land surface. The results show that radar bands have a high capability to extract surface biophysical properties, so radar data can be considered as a good alternative especially when optical data is not available. Considering the proper relation of spectral indices with the targets’ responses in radar bands, the results of this study can further be used in different environmental applications such as heat island, evapotranspiration and coastline extraction.Based on the findings of the current study, it is recommended that future researches investigate the efficiency of full polarization images in comparison with existing spectral indices to extract biophysical properties of the earth's surface. The full polarized radar images also allow the calculation of radar indices based on the degree of backscattering values in different polarimetric bands. In addition, considering the low saturation level of spectral indices (in comparison with radar, responses) and the loss of sensitivity of these indices to phenomena changes, it is highly suggested to investigate the relationship of biophysical properties with radar bands in such a situation.

    Keywords: Optical data, Radar data, Biophysical properties, spectral indices, regression analysis