فصلنامه پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی
پیاپی 39 (تابستان 1399)

This study attempts to find out the impact of financial development on inflation targeting and monetary policy efficiency in OECD and OPEC countries for the period 2001-2017 based on annual data. For this purpose, the long-term inflation trend, which was extracted by the Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter, is considered as a proxy for the target inflation rate, and the difference between this proxy and the actual inflation rate was entered to the model as a dependent variable. Also, the broad-based index, which had been introduced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2016, optimized by using fuzzy logic, has been used as a proxy for financial development. The results show that in OPEC countries, financial development has been neutral on monetary policy efficiency through output growth, which is consistent with the monetary neutral theory, and also financial development strengthen the efficiency of inflation targeting in these countries. On the other hand, the study indicates in OECD countries, financial development has been neutral on monetary policy efficiency through output growth, and unlike in OPEC countries, financial development has been neutral on inflation targeting efficiency in the period under review. This confirms that a high level of financial development reduces the efficiency of inflation targeting.

Reduction of inequality and social justice by balancing the distribution of income and wealth is one of the concerns of economic policy makers and has been underlined by the constitution law in Iran. In the meantime, the explanation of the relationship between inequality and the factors affecting it has been a challenging area of economic debate in recent decades, and despite extensive research in this area, there are still many ambiguous issues in this regard. In this regard, in recent years, a new hypothesis has been presented by the French economist Thomas Piketty. In his analysis, Piketty's main factor of inequality is the gap between the rate of return on capital and the economic growth rate (r-g). But, despite offering logical explanations consistent with changes in the patterns of inequality, no empirical test has been done for the scientific-theoretical chain. Therefore, the question arises as to how much Piketty's hypothesis is empirically convincing and capable of explaining the rise of inequality for different countries? For this purpose, this paper, using the Structural Vector Autoregressive pattern (SVAR), analyzes the factors affecting income inequality in Iran within the framework of Thomas Piketty's perspective during the period of 1973-2016. The results of this study showed that the increase of gap (r-g) has no positive and significant relationship with the increase of inequality and share of capital from national income in Iran and there is no evidence to confirm Piketty's hypothesis in Iran.

In this paper, the effect of government expenditures with the volume of bank credits on economic growth in Iran, considering the role of monetary policy in the form of a dynamic stochastic genral equilibrium model is studied. for this purpose, we first defined a model consisting of households, production sector, government and oil, banks and intermediary financial institutions and the monetary status for the Iranian economy. Then, the model of the study was specified and the equations of each section were explained. After specifying the assumptions, characteristics and relationship of different parts of the model with each other, each section was optimized. After simulating the model, the model was fitted with real and simulated ratios and also using the torque variables and finally, the effects of the impuls response to the shock of government expenditures on the variables of production, consumption, investment, facilities and bank deposits were investigated that in many cases, the results have been consistent with the theoretical expectations and economic realities of the country.

Emphasizing on designing the four paths of oil and energy impact on the Iranian economy, a New-Keynesian comprehensive DSGE model is simulated. In the present study, shocks in the form of two important paths monetary base and government oil revenues are analyzed. Monetary impulses, in addition to inflation, instantly have a positive impact on nominal and real exchange rates, firms’ investment, employment, production, import of consumer and capital goods. The impulse for government oil revenues in the first period will also increase government development and current expenditure, general price level, import of capital and consumer goods, and household consumption. Then the demand side of the economy is expanded cross-sectionally and increased non-oil production at the rate of 0.8%. In contrast, with the decline in private sector investment and employment, non-oil production has fallen sharply over two periods, even falling from a stable long-term situation, which means that the Resource Curse in the Iranian economy is realizing. On the other hand, as a result of the shocks in oil revenues, the Crowding-Out Effect on the Iranian economy will be strengthened as government capital spending increases and firms' investments decrease.

Establishing security is one of the important pillars of economic growth and the most important economic impact of security in the phenomenon of investment and economic growth is observed. The establishment of security in society is influenced by several factors, among which the institutions in the society and government are the most important of these factors. In both internal and external conflicts, each of them, in turn, will undermine security and, as a result, will undermine the economic growth of a country. Therefore, in this research, we tried to study the effect of internal and external conflicts on economic growth in Middle East countries during the period 1996-2018. By examining the nature and effect of conflicts on economic growth, first, the effect of external conflict on internal conflict in the form of a panel probe model, then in two separate models of the impact of internal and external disputes on the quality of institutions and economic integration indexes are examined. Finally, in a generalized method of moments system the simultaneous influence of internal and external conflicts, quality of institutions indicators and economic integration on economic growth have been investigated. The results of the model estimation show the positive effects of external conflicts on the internal conflicts and then the negative effects of internal and external conflicts on the quality of institutions and economic integration. In the final model, the increase in domestic and foreign conflicts has led to a decline in Middle East economic growth. Of course, the negative effects of foreign conflicts have been more than internal conflicts in the economic growth model.

Since the 1990s, the role of institutions and the quality of governance along with social capital has been widely recognized as the factors of development. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to examine the role and contribution of institutional arrangements and social capital on the development process.So, in this study, the role and importance of these factors is examined along with economical and technical factors in the process of industrial development using the hierarchical analysis approach. The results show that the social capital and institutional quality factors which are included with the headings of policy and political factors, cultural and social factors, and management and human resources factors are respectively calculated with the weight of 0.31, 0.14, 0.11, as the first priority, the third priority and the fourth priority of the barriers to industrial development. The results also show that the financial and technical factors with the weigh of 0.12 and 0.08, respectively, are the second and sixth priorities. The infrastructure deficiency and limitations in access to resources and raw materials, respectively, with a coefficient of 0.1 and 0.05 are the fifth and seventh priorities.