فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 144 (بهار 1398)

The relationship between technology and energy consumption is one of the most challenging issues in the field of energy policy. Various studies have investigated this relationship but did not come up with the same results. In this paper, using the economic complexity index, this relationship is evaluated for energy consumption in the industrial sector of Iran for the period 1971-2016. The findings show that the increasing complexity of the economy has led to an increase in energy consumption in the industrial sector, which can be due to two reasons: first, the rebound effects of technology, and second, the transfer of production to the industrial sector due to the change in the structure of production towards technological goods. On the other hand, as regards the cross-effects, economic complexity has reduced the positive coefficient of income, which indicates that with higher technology, increase in production, will increase energy consumption to a lesser extent. Consequently, from this perspective, economic complexity can lead to positive results in energy consumption in the industrial sector.

This paper documents the changes in intergenerational occupational mobility among men in Iran for the last two decades. To measure intergenerational mobility, the Altham distance between the job transition matrices has been used for during the period in question. The results suggest that for the period (1996-2011), occupational mobility declined; this downward trend is steeper in 2006-2011, and it has leveled off until 2016. One of the factors that explains this decrease in occupational mobility is the flat supply of public sector jobs. In the period in question, while active population increases by more than 10 million, the public sector jobs rise by less than 1 million, bringing about a higher level of competition for obtaining those jobs. The analysis shows that following this phenomenon, the chance for obtaining public sector job has increased greatly for those whose father had a public sector job. In
addition, jobless growth and higher education boom are two potential reasons for the sharper reduction in mobility during 2005-2011.

This paper examines the impact of industrial sector on poverty reduction in all provinces of Iran. For this purpose, squared poverty gap index (FGT(2)) was first measured in the urban areas of provinces; Then the value added of those industrial activities that are carried out by ten or more employees are gathered at the ISIC 2-digit code level. Finally, using Panel-VAR approach, the impacts of industrial sector on poverty in all provinces of Iran were evaluated for the period (2004-2015). The results indicate that in those provinces which have high levels of productivity in industrial workshops, poverty intensity is low. Therefore, at high level of productivity of industrial workshops, there is a significant relationship between industry and poverty. The results also show that with regard to causal relationship, poverty is not the Granger-cause of industry growth; also, the added value shock of industrial activities had no impact on poverty at the moment of shock occurrence. Moreover, in the analysis of variance, the value added of industrial activities does not explain the as much of intensity of urban poverty as much. Therefore, the results of applying the panel-VAR approach indicate the small impacts of the value added of industrial activities with ten employees and more on the severity of urban poverty. These findings can be used in developing executive and research strategies.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of overweight and obesity on personal medical expenses and deadweight loss in Iran; this study also measures the portion of budget imposed on the public sector due to obedity. To this end, questionnaire data were used to estimate the econometric model of factors affecting personal medical expense. Hence, the social costs (personal and public) and dead weight loss due to overweight are calculated. Data were collected from 1250 individuals in 5 provinces of Tehran, Isfahan, Fars, Hamadan and Guilan for the year 2019. Then the social costs (personal and public) and dead weight loss due to overweight are calculated. The results show that age, education, and poverty have a positive impact on personal medical expenditures; However, the poverty index has no significant impact on such expenditures. Moreover, having a history of disease in health records has positive and significant effect on personal medical expenses. Estimates of the additional cost of overweight and deadweight loss indicate an increase in the nominal value and a fluctuating increase in real value over the years under study. Thus, a one-unit increase in body mass index would increase general medical costs by 2.31%. The policies in “health subsector” (such as promoting the culture of having a healthy diet), “treatment subsector” (such as offering appropriate and cheaper therapies and prevention), and in “education subsector”, can help to prevent the prevalence of obesity and overweight.

In recent years, the factors that influence economic growth have traversed beyond the set of factors that are proposed in conventional growth theories; namely, institutional factors have been considered by researchers. Why some countries are moving toward rich countries in terms of economic performance is a question that has long occupied the minds of economists, and the answer to this question is fundamental as to the formation of economic growth patterns. In this study, based on the division of countries in terms of development, it has been examined as to which of the institutional variables have the highest priority in influencing economic growth. To this end, using a dynamic system data approach, the resource curse phenomenon in the studied countries is first studied and then analyzed using variables such as variables of the institutional environment, human capital, and other control variables affecting economic growth. In this study, two groups of (developing and developed) countries have been studied, which are estimated and analyzed for the period 1995-2016. Analysis of research coefficients shows that the resource curse phenomenon is existent in the developing countries but not in developed countries. On the other hand, the analysis of the results of the coefficients of the variables of different models show that the weak institutional qualities and the low level of development of human capital have led to the intensification of the resource curse in the countries in question.

This article investigates the relationship between competition policy, industrial policy, and the theoretical differences between them. The purpose of this study is to examine the contribution of game theory in the dual evolution of industrial economics since its emergence in the 1970s to the early 2020s. In the late 1970s, many game theory tools were incorporated into the industrial economic analysis; in the beginning, industrial economists made changes in game theory in order to adapt it to their own theories and then added this to their toolbox. In this regard, the present study is divided into three periods. The first period is the 1980s which is characterized by the existence of a unique competition policy without the presence of industrial policy.The second period, from the late 1980s to the late 1990s, is characterized by a combination of competition and industrial policy to meet and develop international competitions. The third period relates to 2000-2020, with the highlight of this period being the crisis of 2008 and 2009 and the restructuring of the declining industry to deal with economic and financial crisis. Since this period has not been over yet, a comprehensive description of emerging industrial and competition policy cannot be provided. However, some of the prominent trends can be anticipated, including the persistence, continuity, and implementation of industrial policy pertaining to the late 1970s. In this period, innovation-based policies will be strengthened and game-based industrial economy will continue to evolve.