فصلنامه پژوهش های اقتصادی ایران
پیاپی 80 (پاییز 1398)

Fama and French (1993) show that systematic risk of market, size, and book to market value constitute the common risk factors in the United States exchange market. In this study, we examine the explaining power of their model in Tehran stock exchange (TSE) for the period of 1991-2015, and explore the validity of the model in TSE. While book to market value risk is of less importance for investors in TSE, size risk is essential and is priced for a large number of firms. Further, we investigate the contribution of each risk factor in bull and bear markets. It is shown that in bull markets, investors pay more attention to size risk, and in bear markets, risk of book to market value is more important in determining the risk factor. Finally, we introduce risk of price to earning as a common risk factor and add it to Fama-French three-factor model. We emphasize its role alongside the other three factors in stock pricing in TSE.

The results of many studies show that rigid regulations on product and labor markets are considered as a key factor in weakening the employment conditions and have led to high unemployment rates. Given the complicated regulations in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), studying the great dynamics of deregulation can give useful guidelines for lawmakers and policy makers. The aim of this paper is to study the effect of deregulations of commodity and labor markets on the growth and the unemployment rate in 20 MENA countries using GMM method and Panel VAR approach during the period 2005 – 2017. The results of this study show that deregulation in product and labor markets in the short run will reduce economic growth, increase unemployment and lead to recession. But in the long run, it will increase economic growth and reduce unemployment. The labor market reforms, as opposed to product market reforms, do not lead to major dynamics in economic growth. For policy-making in MENA countries, deregulation in the product market has priority over the labor market, since it has a stronger impact on the wavelength and durability of the effects.

There is no convincing explanation in public choice theory for the "paradox of voting". Despite the prediction that rational individuals will decide to abstain, lots of citizens still vote. The paradox of voting crops up when one tries to explain the decision to vote in an exclusively instrumental framework. In other words, the voting paradox arises because of the flawed notion of rationality held by public choice. By applying another concept of rationality, a deeper and more appropriate viewpoint can be made on how citizens make voting decisions and resolve the paradox of voting. It allows us to explain voting decisions as rational (the voter judges there to be good reasons for his decisions) without interpreting them as instrumentally motivated. In this research, the proposed strategies for solving the paradox of the voting are criticized based on logical reasoning. Then institutional rationality, which is compatible with the methodological approach of institutional economics, has been used to provide a new explanation of the voting decisions of individuals. The results of the theoretical analysis show that institutional rationality can help to solve the paradox of voting.

Tax evasion constitutes a major component of underground activities and development of financial sector -as one of the most important sectors in every country can affect its size. Considering the importance of this issue, this study tries to investigate the relationship between financial development and tax evasion and provide an answer to this question: can financial development in Iran reduce tax evasion? This study estimates the volume of tax evasion in Iran by using multiple-indicators -multiple causes (MIMIC) model and maximum likelihood method in AMOS software, for the period of 1978-2016. Then the effect of financial development on tax evasion is investigated by using ARDL Bounds test method. The results show that despite some fluctuations, volume of tax evasion has been generally increasing over the underlying period. The results of the estimation of the effect of financial development on the tax evasion indicate that financial development in Iran in long-run and short-run (with one lag) has a negative and significant impact on the tax evasion. Also, findings show that an increase in inflation, increases tax evasion and increase in GDP reduces tax evasion.

During the period 1969-2017, Iranian economy’s inflation rate was on average 19 percent which did not have a downward trend; hence the name chronic moderate inflation. In the present paper, by reviewing 110 theoretical and empirical studies and 83 studies on the Iran’s economy, a meta-analysis on the role of budget structure for explaining the persistence of the chronic moderate inflation rate of Iran is presented. This analysis shows that the budget structure (deficit, operating deficit, capital surplus, and financing) has been the driving force behind the continual increase in the liquidity as well as the permanent repression of interest rates in the post-revolutionary period. Therefore, change in financial and monetary strategies (and not policies necessarily) is a precondition to control the liquidity and inflation. Accordingly, some budgetary rules are needed to improve the process of decision-making and parliament-government-central bank interactions. In addition, a clear consensus has been reached about the inflationary effects of government budgets in the Iranian economy, so it is recommended that future researches focus on how the new rules can affect interaction between the fiscal and monetary autorities using game theory.

Today, the role of economic resiliency in reaction to the shocks to the economy of countries has been one of the most important topics and has attracted the attention of researchers and experts of the world to itself. Given the importance of the subject, the persent study has examined, the effect of the triple dimensions of globalization (economic, social and political) and knowledge development and its components (the human skills and sources, the information and communication technology and finally, the innovation system), on the economic resiliency of oil producing developing countries during the period 2007 to 2015 using FMOLS method. The results of this study emphasize the positive effects of developing the knowledge, its components, and the triple dimensions of globalization on the resiliency of the economy. The numerical coefficients, 0.21, 0.11 and 0.04 respectively, of human skills and sources, the information and communication technology, the innovation system, indicate that the human skills and sources have the most effect on the resiliency.

The aim of developing labour accounts is to provide a complete and coherent picture of the labour market and organize the employment statistics in each country. The most important variables and components of labour accounts are employment, working hours and income from employment. Employment account is one of the most important components of labour accounts. In this paper, based on the recommendations of the World Labour Organization and the experience of countries such as the Netherlands, Australia, Italy, Denmark and Switzerland, for the first time, the employment account in Iran is provided. The main objective is to derive a comprehensive estimate of total employment in the country. To achieve this goal, employment statistics from regular household surveys are linked to the employment data from establishment surveys. The resulting data are reconciled based on a bottom-up approach until a coherent picture of the size and characteristics of employment emerge. The statistics obtained from labour accounts should also provide improved and more consistent data for macro-economic analysis of the labour market, in particular, the analysis of productivity and the relationship between employment and economic growth. Because in 2011, a number of statistical sources, including labour force survey, population and housing census and numerous establishment surveys have been implemented with the aim of achieving input-output tables, that year is considered as the base year for calculating labour accounts in Iran.