فصلنامه پژوهش های حفاظتی - امنیتی
پیاپی 30 (تابستان 1398)

This study seeks to analyze the “Opportunity – threat” of the second phase of the Islamic Revolution based on the statement of the second step of revolution that is issued by the supreme leader of Iran. To this end, the researchers employed inferential-ijtihad methodology and basic theory. They firstly utilized an inductive approach and extracted 407 central concepts, 407 subcategories, and 42 main categories from 48 units of the statement’s text analysis units and 271 recording units. In the following, the researchers selected the levels of "self-improvement, civilization-making and community- producing" from within the context of the statement by using the deductive approach and organized the categories that extracted from the inductive approach under these three levels. Then, based on the extracted concepts and levels and regarding to their positive and negative nature a total of 156 theorems were constructed and categorized into two groups of opportunity - based and threat- based theorems based on their positive and negative nature. Finally, the extracted theorems were subjected to semi-structured focus group evaluation and from 156 theorems, 134 ones were finalized and confirmed. After combining common theorems, 38 theorems were finally extracted that according to the message of each theorem’s content, 5 theorems at self-improvement level (3 positive opportunity - based theorems and 2 negative threat- based theorems), 20 theorems at community - producing level (13 positive opportunity - based theorems and 7 negative threat- based theorems) and 13 theorems at civilization-making level (10 positive opportunity - based theorems and 3 negative threat- based theorems)  were organized. The end result of the analysis of the statement of the second step of revolution is that “the focus of the second step of the statement in the perspective of the second step of the Islamic Revolution is on the creation of a new Islamic civilization and the preparation for the sunrise of Velayete Ozma. The important point in this process and on the basis of the frequency of theorems is the importance of community - producing as a prelude to civilization in the process of advancement of the Islamic Revolution

The spatial distribution of the transmittancy of different types of urban centers at different scales is one of the main and strategic concerns of experts, managers and spatial political logisticians. Meanwhile, the production of urban safe space based on the spatial organization of the centers involved in urban security, under the effect of spatial factor of activism, and the analysis of the spatial distribution of sensitive centers also requires the identification of factors affecting the spatial distribution of sensitive metropolitan centers in Tehran with emphasis on passive defense. The present study attempted to identify these factors using qualitative and quantitative methods. This study is a descriptive-analytical type that uses a meta-synthesis method for identifying the first factors affecting the spatial distribution of sensitive metropolitan centers of Tehran with emphasis on passive defense and also employs quantitative methods to investigate and explore factors and verify the designed model. The statistical population of this study consisted of 140 elites, specialists and experts in the field of defense, political geography and urban planning. Statistical techniques were factor analysis, exploratory and confirmatory and SPSS and Lisrel programs were used in data processing. The results showed that 54 items were classified into eight main dimensions (1. economic factors, 2. socio- demographic factors, 3. privacy factors, 4. access to services and infrastructures, 5. nature-environment considerations, 6. factors related to military geography, 7. physical factors and 8. Political-administrative factors) with a coefficient of variance of 17, 14, 12, 9, 6, 7, 5 and 5 percent, respectively, explain 86/22 percent of the total variance. Confirmatory factor analysis also showed that all pathways were significant with 95% probability and the effect of exogenous latent variables on endogenous latent variables (octagonal dimensions) was significant. The chi-square statistic also showed the fitting of the designed model.

Policy-making is the result of complex interactions among individuals, institutions, ideas, and interests. Policy-making the high council of the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on the issues that create security problems for a section or sections of society. Therefore, the proper understanding of the problem plays a key role in initiating the policy-making process, as each wrong step leads to a series of subsequent errors that require a new policy to restore the situation to its original state. This research was conducted with the aim of providing a favorable model for problem finding in the policy-making process. Researchers seek to answer the question that; what is the optimal problem-solving model in the policy-making process of the high council of the national security? The researchers, by using the expert community of 18 people and conducting purposeful quality interviews, extracted key points and important variables of problem solving in the policy-making process of the council and then, by classifying and establishing relationships between variables using content analysis and correlation methods, calculated and presented the main policy-making process in the "problem recognition" stage.
The research results show that the optimal problem-solving model includes five components: the feeling of the problem existence, dissection of the problem, testing the problem with the level of national issues, management process of the national security issue and preparing the issue to enter the policy making agenda.

While the Persian Gulf is regarded as the most important strategic and security area of ​​Saudi Arabia, due to the weakness in its military power, this country has always played a role in transnational security structures in the region under the titles of Nixon theory, bilateral restraint, the granting of direct and indirect military bases to Western governments, and so on. Following the 9/11 events and growing evidence of U.S. distrust of Saudi Arabia and the visible decline in US military presence in the Persian Gulf due to the consequence of the financial crisis in the West, Saudi Arabia has shifted from purely reliance on the West in security strategies to militarization in the form of the strategies of quantitative and qualitative expansion of military forces, including increased military purchases. The Saudi Arabia's strategy led to the development of arms race and high - tensions relations with Iran, in particular. The main question of the study is what are the causes and consequences of the Saudi Arabia tendency toward military strategy and arms competition in the Persian Gulf, especially during the Obama and Trump era? To answer this question, a descriptive and analytical approach was used to examine the findings of the study and also, some library resources and analysis of the text of U.S. strategic - security documents during the Obama and Trump presidencies were utilized as the information collection tools. The research findings show that the main goal of this strategy of Saudi Arabia is to reduce Iran's regional influence and increase Saudi Arabia's regional competition power with the Islamic Republic of Iran

Cities are the most important targets of an enemy invasion because of the high population density and the place of capital accumulation. Accordingly, this study seeks to rank the vulnerability of the five regions of Urmia city against the dangers of unexpected events and war based on passive defense principles by investigating and identifying effective indicators. This research, based on its purpose, is an applied research and according to the method of work, has an analytical nature. In this study, after studying and analyzing the related documents and resources of passive defense, 14 indicators that are related to some principles of passive defense including principles of dispersal, hardening and localization were selected and then hierarchical analysis process method was used for giving weight to the indices. For performing spatial analyses, index data layers were first digitized and edited in GIS software and by converting data layers into raster and classifying them, the calculated coefficient of significance (via hierarchical analysis method) was multiplied in each index and by using the weighted sum of the indices, the vulnerability was measured in the five districts of Urmia city. In the final step, the vulnerability of the five regions of Urmia city was ranked according to the TOPSIS model. The results indicate that the vulnerability of the five regions of Urmia city are from top to bottom, respectively, regions five, one, three, four and two and also in most of the cases, they are associated with weaknesses in the principle of dispersal, hardening and localization.

According to the sources of Imamiyyah jurisprudence, the book, traditions, and the biography of Imams (AS) and consensus, one of the barriers to marriage includes Muslim marriage with non-Muslims, but these sources do not specifically mention marriage to foreigners and its harmful effects. The most important question of the study is: "What are the negative consequences of the marriage of the members of the Islamic Republic of Iran's armed forces with foreigners in Imamiyyah jurisprudence and positive laws?". The research method in this study is explanatory and data collection tool is library and library sampling. In addition, it seems that marrying with foreigners on the basis of Nafy al-Sabil (negation of any way) rule leads to the domination of infidels over Muslims' affairs, the creation of a suitable basis for penetration into the country in the areas of culture, politics, economics, security, weakness in jihad, and the separation between couples. As the result, the marriage of this class with foreigners is not permissible on the basis of analogy of priority from the perspective of jurisprudence and Islamic law in the first place. The findings of the study indicate that various jurists have investigated in this field and on the basis of jurisprudential sources they have worked on the reasons of prohibition of marriage with foreigners and the consequences of this type of marriage. At the end, in the opinion of the researcher, regarding the importance of this issue, positive laws needs to be revised.