فصلنامه آفاق امنیت
پیاپی 46 (بهار 1399)

Iran-Turkey military-security relations have never been equal to the economic, political and even cultural relations between the two countries. But recent developments in the Turkish military, the failed coup in Turkey and Iran''s support for the Turkish government, along with active Iranian defense diplomacy, have changed the course of military cooperation slightly. Given that the rapid pace of change in relations between countries and the lack of attitude and understanding of the future of relations will cause a reaction and not an action, the present study seeks to answer the question of which military-security factors on the future of relations. Iran and Turkey affect the 10-year horizon? This research is practical in terms of exploratory nature. In this study, military-security variables affecting the future of relations between the two countries were identified, then based on the opinions of experts, the variables affecting Iran-Turkey relations were identified and their importance and uncertainty were determined. Turkey''s military cooperation with the United States, Turkey''s military cooperation with the Zionist regime, cooperation and differences in the Syrian security crisis, and Iran-Turkey rivalry in the Caucasus security arrangements are key military factors affecting the future of Iran-Turkey relations.

Diplomacy, sanctions, and threats of force have been United States policy, in contrast to Iran's and North Korea's nuclear programs since the early 1990s. This study using a documentary based and comparative approach to examine these dimensions of US policy. Despite the differences between the two countries in pursuing a nuclear program, Iran is under greater pressure than North Korea. Based on the theory of neoclassical realism, selected options for Iran and North Korea are influenced by systemic factors and internal factors. In addition to the interests of world powers (China and Russia), the interests of US regional allies in Northeast and Southwest Asia are important factors influencing Washington's policy on Iran and North Korea's nuclear program. Domestic factors also play an important role in explaining US policy; North Korea is capable of targeting US soil, but US officials believe North Korea will attack in response to the US and allied offensive. Americans see the ideology of the Islamic Republic as an enemy, and they think nuclear development, Increases the likelihood of an Iranian nuclear bomb, That would threaten US interests in the region and even in the world. Another point is that the Arab and Israeli lobbies are working to influence Congress to oppose any engagement with Iran. As a consequence of systemic and internal factors, the pressure on Iran is increasing and it is being reduced against North Korea.

Nevertheless, changing the world's security conditions and the formation of a new order Global is associated with the emergence of new threats, and the methods of controlling future social activities by the NJA require a future study of social control that is being used through research and identification of the processes affecting it, since the affected urban movements Is a social activity. In this research, we seek to use the methods of controlling future social actions We are studying. The methodology of this research is analytical-descriptive in the form of focus group (focal groups). Data analysis is based on the process of the research process. The statistical society of this research includes military and law enforcement experts and academic professors and leading experts in the fields of action Social studies and futuristic experts. The results of the research show that the most massive processes affecting the control of social actions are the rapid, uneven and uncontrollable growth of social networks and the virtual environment - the growing trend of information and demands of the people - the transformation of the state of affairs Social, political, and ... all over again Convicts and revolutionary and religious organizations to artists, athletes - Increasing diverse and anti-religious sects and the knowledge of the families and the ways of managing and controlling social actions. The urban future should be based on the hypotheses obtained in this research of future social actions coming from power

The importance of research is that US actions in the form of soft power, soft war, and hybrid war and investment in these areas over the past few years have threatened the Islamic Republic of Iran with major political, security, economic, and social threats. It will face in the future. Therefore, the future of the US threat against the Islamic Republic of Iran in the form of various scenarios is essential. In this regard, the subject of the present study is the answer to the question of what are the US strategies to deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran in the future? The research findings in the framework of future research and scenario writing (scenario processing) indicate possible scenarios such as increasing the economic sanctions and changing the attitude of the people towards the government and the possible scenario in the form of political and social unrest and finally a favorable scenario such as the beginning of a new round of negotiations.

To understand a country's foreign policy approaches, important data such as the quantity and quality of the presence of foreign actors, evolution or defects in the legal-governance structure, political elite thinking, social and political stratification, geopolitical, geoeconomic and geocultural position are essential. Regarding Iraq's foreign policy towards the Islamic Republic of Iran, in addition to the mentioned data, other issues such as territorial and border disputes with neighbors, excessive enthusiasm for leading the Arab world and playing a "major or appropriate role" in resolving regional issues. , Strategic inclinations are effective for tangible activity in the Persian Gulf and getting rid of geopolitical bottlenecks. After the occupation of Iraq in 2003, the Americans have made great efforts to overshadow the decision-making circles in Iraq's foreign policy, while Iran has elements of soft power in Iraq so has more legitimacy in the eyes of the Iraqi government and society. The present study seeks to examine the important approaches of Iraq,s foreign policy, while examining the approaches of modern Iraq's foreign policy towards the Islamic Republic of Iran in a scenario-writing manner. The research findings show that the continuation of competition between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States is a scenario that is more likely to occur. Therefore, it seems that with the adoption of an independent foreign policy by Iraq and the liberation from the clutches of the United States in the future, the weight of Iraq's interaction with the Islamic Republic of Iran will be heavier.

The language and its historical context are one of the basic foundations of national security in countries with a thousand years of history. National cohesion and the expansion of the regional and international power of the country without a coherent identity and language structure are undoubtedly defeated. One of the foundations of the cultural power of each country is the cultural context of its language and extends it beyond its geographical boundaries. The Iranian culture with the thousand years of history and its historical national identity based on the Persian language can be influential elements of regional and political influence. The present paper establishes a multifaceted relationship between official language and national security and considers Persian as a part of national security in the Islamic republic of Iran which has been politicalized-securitized since the time of Islamic Revolution. This paper based on the Copenhagen school security examines that today especially after the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Persian language has been politicalized based on the opponent's approach to Iranian territorial integrity. The output of the research emphasizes the prevalence of Persian language through expanding the cultural and economic influence of Iran in the short term along with linkage between this language and Iran's national security which can help the Persian language to be a normal and non-security, politicized subject. The research method is based on qualitative analytical research.