نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 16 (بهار 1399)

Nowadays, the diversity and expansions of problems in various branches of science has greatly increased and finding the answer to such problems in a short period of time is considered as a very essential challenge. Using artificial intelligence can significantly accelerate the solving process for complex problems and considerably reduce the response time. The pursuit-evasion problem is one of the problems that can have a high level of complexity due to the nature of the factors involved. Factors causing complexity include the number of factors involved, the range of member’s vision and barriers exist on the playground. Various algorithms have been proposed to solve the pursuit-evasion problem so far, each has its own strengths and weaknesses. In this paper, the pursuit-evasion game is examined by using the linguistic geometry algorithm specifically in a problem with 9×9 playground dimensions and to examine the generalization of the algorithm's performance in problems with different dimensions. It has been shown that this approach can improve the response speed by more than 90%. In this work, the factors affecting the realism of the pursuit-evasion game are examined more carefully in linguistic geometry and finally the problem is solved by simplifying the problem space to a number of subspaces in which the movement paths of each element of the game are clear. We show that, despite the problem space became more complex, the linguistic geometry algorithm creates about 91% improvement over the other algorithms.

Rapid changes and widespread uncertainties in the chain store business have led managers to focus on "Scenario-based planning" rather than "Strategic planning", and "robust strategies" rather than "Optimum strategies". In this study, we tend to identify and develop plussible scenarios for the future of the chain store industry in Iran (based on a case study of ETKA Chain Stores). For this purpose, we used the Peter Schwartz scenario planning approach. We asked experts to find key factors. Also We used systematic review for find key factors. The driving forces, they were obtained from the scoring of experts. The cross-impact matrix was completed by experts We used Mick Mac software and scenario wizard for structural analysis and probability analysis. Furthermore, scenarios with high compatibility were selected. The Output of Scenario Wizard Software is four plussible scenarios included "Big Shopper", "sideline Retailer", "Virtual shopping mall," and "Mall Project". Besides, after two brainstorming sessions and considering the complicated and complex environment of chain store activities, the fifth scenario, "proprietary market" as a complementary scenario, and the sixth scenario, "dissolution" as a surprising scenario, were added to the four software output. These scenarios help managers make better decisions and actions now.

Iran's geopolitical and geostrategic position in the strategic region of the Persian Gulf has led to the creation of special situations and threats to national security and national interests in the past, present, and future, which in certain historical periods has led to war and conflict with neighbor countries and other regional and supra-regional powers, which due to the prevailing conditions of uncertainty in the future of Iran's relations and developments in the region and the international system, understanding the position and defense-military power is a necessity in the future. In this regard, in the present article, to explain the key military factors affecting Iran's defense power in the time horizon of 1410 by studying the relevant documents and previous scientific records and using the opinions of 50 experts, 141 military driving forces were identified, then with the formation of the expert panel, similar driving forces were merged and 53 driving forces were identified. Next, by using the Freedman model, we ranked and determined the value of the driving forces and determined 40 important and affective driving forces. Finally, by using Micmac software, and the cross-sectional matrix analysis method, 17 effective driving forces, and five key factors were identified as key military factors affecting Iran's defense power.

Today, security and peace in different parts of society is one of the most important issues of mankind. Especially, due to the expansion of communications, the increase in international flights, and the development of transportation, the need to security is felt more than before. Achieving this requires predicting and preventing riots or attacks on various centers using scientific techniques. On the other hand, the limitations of security resources, including manpower and military facilities, have to be considered. Another challenge of security forces is that attackers observe the pattern of security forces before planning any attack. Therefore, defensive forces have to take into account the attacker's priorities in their decision making. Game theory provides a mathematical approach to utilize some limited security resources to maximize their efficiency. In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to optimize the allocation of the forces, using a game theory analysis. Naturally, each player is unaware of the importance of targets for the other, exactly. In this model, in order to handle the players' uncertainty about the importance of targets, their payoffs are considered as triangular fuzzy numbers. Then, Lexicographic optimization is applied to solve the problem using an ordering relation on triangular fuzzy numbers. The final part of the paper deals with solving the security game problem with deceptive resources in the fuzzy environment in which, the defender can also use unrealistic resources to reduce the attacker's productivity, given the available budget.

There is no component more important to the development, prosperity and flourishing of a society's talents than the element of security and peace in society. Without spatial security, social development and creativity wouldn’t be possible. Exploring the concept and indicators of societal security as a useful tool for public policy and decision-making in urban affairs is an inevitable necessity. Describing and explaining the societal security of the urban system in the future can reduce the occurrence of a variety of societal anomalies. This study investigates and formulates the dimensions explaining the societal security of the Iranian urban system from a futuristic perspective. Descriptive-analytical method, exploratory factor analysis and network analysis were used In order to find an answer to the question that which definition and indexing system is more suitable for explaining societal security in the urban system of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In order to conduct this research we first searched library sources and specialized journals related to security and research projects carried out by related organizations and studied them. Then, by analyzing the studies and refining and clarifying them, the main general indicators were specified. Based on the findings of the research, the main components/dimensions for measuring societal security in Iran's urban system includes economic, social, cultural, political, life and honor security, religious and Islamic, environmental and spatial dimensions. These findings are based on the applied indicators and components used in urban settlements. Finally, based on the integration of factor analysis and network analysis prioritization of the components and indicators in the future urban system was achieved.

This paper aimed to study the frameworks, models and patterns of foresight and strategic foresight in different organizations, and by using the opinions of experts, trying to synthesize the steps, components and stages of strategic foresight of technology in the field of air defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and introduce a appropriate framework in this field. For this purpose, by using an interpretive structural modeling method, the opinion of 25 experts was received, and within seven steps of ISM method, each of the stages of the strategic foresight framework of air defense technologies were sorted. According to the output of interpretive structural models, The pre-foresight step includes Five levels and thirteen steps, the specifying inputs step includes nine levels and seventeen steps, the foresight step includes five levels and eleven steps, the output step includes two levels and seven steps and the step of developing strategies includes four levels and ten steps.  Finally, the strategic foresight framework of technology in army air defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran was designed and developed and using the calculation of the power of influence and the degree of dependency, "effective, connective, independent and dependent" stages were determined at each step.