فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک
سال شانزدهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 59، پاییز 1399)

Historical turning points generally arise on the basis of instrumental changes and technological developments. In the final years of the 20th century, we witnessed the emergence of transformations in the structure of the international system and social lives of citizens, which were referred to as “The Third Wave” and “Powershift” by Alvin Toffler, “The Third Wave of Democracy” by Samuel P. Huntington, and as “The Network Society” by Manuel Castells. The entire foregoing literature and approaches are indicative of the fact that technological changes firstly pave the way for international transformations, and secondly prepare the ground for confrontation of players who have ideological, historical and geopolitical rivalries. The World Wars I and II were the result of technological changes, extensive militarism, and emergence of signs of intensified nationalism. In the late 2010s, we witnessed instrumental changes and emergence of nationalist thoughts in a wide range of countries worldwide. American nationalism is defined on the basis of Trump’s emergence. Russian nationalism can be traced within the framework of the political thoughts and position of Putin in the political power structure of Russia. In Europe, nationalism has led to fundamental challenges for the European Union. Iranian nationalism can be witnessed in the broad-based reaction of Iranian social groups following the assassination of Major General Soleimani. Each of such processes can create strategic and geopolitical changes. As the assassination of the Austrian crown prince in Sarajevo led to the outbreak of World War I in 1914, the assassination of Major General Soleimani reflects the United States’ logic of operational, tactical and strategic action aimed at changing the mechanisms of regional power balance. Any military action and counteraction by other players can be regarded as part of the hidden facts behind the geopolitical rivalry of countries in critical and security regions.

The main question of the paper is that: “What are the features of the geopolitics of power and security in Southwest Asia following the assassination of Major General Soleimani, and what changes will it create in the power equation of the players involved?” The hypothesis of this papers is that “the assassination of Major General Soleimani will lead to the aggravation of limiting and retaliating actions of the US against Iran aimed at creating weakness balance in the regional environment.” In writing this paper, the theory of offensive structural realism has been used for change in the balance and geopolitics of power.  

 The U.S.-Iran tensions still have the potential to escalate into all-out conflict. Iran’s materiel support for armed factions throughout the region, including its provision of short-range ballistic missiles to these factions, and Iran’s network of agents in Europe, Latin America, and elsewhere, give Iran the potential to expand confrontation into areas where U.S. response options might be limited. Trump's model of security action is not only a challenge to neoliberal groups in the US internal structure, but also is an attempt to redefine the international system and shift the geopolitics of regional power.

A shift in the geopolitics of power in Southwest Asia will require a change in the balance of the power-threat equation. Some theorists point out that signs of "Shiite geopolitics" have emerged in the regional environment. The main feature of Shiite geopolitics can be considered in relation to Iran's strategic, tactical, and operational role in the processes of political and security action. Actors such as Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt are reluctant Iran to find a role for the region.

Displacement of human beings across a geographical area is called migration and is performed either voluntarily or compulsory. Various factors are at play in the generating these two types of immigration. Better job opportunities, higher living standards, continuing education, or security and political stability are among the most important factors. In recent years, the Middle East has turned into an insecure and crisis-stricken zone due to war, clashes and conflicts in countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Egypt as well as the emergence of extremist and takfiri groups like Taliban, al-Qaeda and ISIS. As a result, a considerable number of Middle Eastern citizens have migrated to other parts of the world with more political stability and favorable economic situation. Europe has always been a main target of international migration especially after the formation of the European Union and the facilitation of the flow of population along its internal borders. On the other hand, political instability in the Middle East has exacerbated the flow of migration to this continent.

The research method is descriptive-analytic and it is a fundamental in terms of its nature. The method of data gathering is based upon library studies and the use of books, articles and online resources. Investigating the political reflections of migrations from the Middle East to Europe is the aim of this study which bears significance due to the immigrations' shape and level and the widespread political impact on both the countries of origin and destination.

1.The Growing Power of Far-Right Parties Stable political systems were established in most European countries after World War II and the defeat of fascism. However, by approaching the 1980s and the emergence of globalization, the spread of immigration and the collapse of communism, we saw the emergence of far-right parties in politics, who emphasized principles such as identity and culture instead of race while being anti-immigrants- have had considerable success both in legal and electoral terms. Right-wing parties view immigrants as a threat in three areas: Culturally; immigrants are a threat to the cultural homogeneity and cohesion of immigrant countries, because they cannot be absorbed in the culture of the host country; In terms of security, immigrants and crime are linked; Economically, immigrants get job opportunities from European citizens. 2.Weakening the Convergence in the European Union The process of European integration has been severely weakened by the collapse of the Eastern Bloc (the disappearance of the common enemy) as well as the emergence of financial and economic crises. On the other hand, two important indicators of Christianity and culture based on secularism have always been the main criteria in accepting new members in this union. This is why the issue of immigration is seen as a challenge to the culture and national identity of European countries, because the predominant religion of immigrants entering the EU (from the Middle East) is Islam, and they are not willing to leave their Islamic rites, and this faces society and European secular culture with serious challenges.

Lack of promising prospects, prolonged wars and conflicts, inefficiencies of political systems, as well as natural and human hazards have affected population movements from the Middle East to Europe as a safe haven. This has had economic, social, demographic, security and political repercussions in European countries as well as in the European Union as a whole. Manifestations of this rise in power can be traced to the national elections of European countries. In addition, the EU's failure to properly integrate migrants, as well as the lack of consensus on a unified model for the reception and organization of migrants will jeopardize the EU, which has been a good model for integration and interaction between wide differences on a continent, and may as  well push the EU to the brink of collapse.

Since the end of the Cold War and vanishing the bipolar international system, different arguments have been made in order to explain the status of world order, US position in the international system and the US foreign policies and strategies in different regions. Some scholars have tried to explain the structure of the new international system. For example, Wohlfarth has called it unipolar while Huntington recognized it as a unipolar-multipolar system. Some other scholars have tried to explain US grand strategies as the only superpower left in the international system after the collapse of USSR. Selective engagement, off-shore balancing and strategic restraint are among strategies that they have recommended to the US, in order to maintain its position in the new international system. On the one hand, we should notice that new rising powers like China and India have changed international equivalents of contemporary era, so it does not seem wise to simply call the international system a unipolar or multipolar system. On the other hand, understanding US position in this complex system and explaining its strategies and policies is not possible without strictly clarifying the changes of its power after the end of the cold war.

This paper is going to examine US power changes between 1989-2017 by using Power Cycle Theory. The research is based on quantitative method. First, we have distinguished all the major powers of the international system after the Cold War which are as follows: United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia, China, Japan and India. Then we have collected all of these players data for eight indicators of national power that is introduced by Kumar. These indicators are: Population, energy consumption, energy consumption per capita, GDP, GDP per capita, total trade, military expenditure and military expenditure as a percentage of GDP. In the third phase, we have calculated each countries’ relative power in each indicator for different years as the percent of the total major actor systemic capability on that indicator. At the fourth phase, we compute each countries’ total relative power by calculating the average of its relative power on each of the eight power indicators. At the end, the Power Cycle of US and inevitably other majors have been drawn by using SPSS software..

Research findings showed that the US has experienced its maximum relative power around 1998 and has entered the declining phase of relative power after that, though it seems there are still long distances between its absolute power and other major powers’ absolute power. The findings also showed that the rate of declining US relative power has changed from an increasing phase to a decreasing phase around 2012. This point is called inflection point 2 in Power Cycle Theory.

In conclusion, according to Power Cycle theory and its special definition of relative power, the rate of changes in the relative power is much more important than the exact amount of absolute power and the US power cycle shows that the relative power of the only super power of the international system is decreasing while China’s relative power as the US main rival is increasing, tremendously. In addition to showing the changes of US power, drawing US power cycle can also help us to understand the upcoming changes in the structure of international system in a better way.

The crises of Syria (in the Middle East region) and Ukraine (in Eastern Europe), which began with some internal, regional and global issues, have continued to threaten the interests of stakeholders such as the Russian Federation. There are many theoretical models for analyzing crises and how the reactions and reactions of stakeholder stakeholders and stakeholders are presented. The crisis model is one of the important theoretical models in this relation. The action and reaction of actors during the crisis stemmed from their perception of the severity of the defeat of the three elements. It should also be noted that actors often face three types of software, hardware, and intelligence management in crisis situations in order to control risky conditions and to deal with destabilizing elements. Russia is not averse to taking clever measures and avoiding a passive approach to manage the upheaval of Syria and Ukraine, as the length of the conflicts imposes more damages on Russia than anything else. It is worth noting that one of the important reasons that the author choose Russian Federation as a case study is its interest and influence in both crises, as well as many aspects of social-cultural contexts, political structure. The economic and geographic location of the two countries has been struck by the crisis, and there are some interesting and remarkable similarities about the bases and reasons for the onset and continuation of the crises. This paper is intended to find an answer this question that “How did the Russian Federation perceive the crises in Syria and Ukraine and how did it manage its transformation, according to the model of the crisis cube?
 

The research method is descriptive-analytic and it is a fundamental in terms of its nature. The method of data gathering is based upon library studies and the use of books, articles and online resources.

Considering the reasons for Syria's importance in political, security, military and economic areas and the occurrence of a crisis in Syria shows that perceptions of the Russian authorities are based on three indicators of the severity of the threat, the amount of time and the level of consciousness. Evidences suggest that in Syrian crisis, given that there was enough time available to the Kremlin decision makers which pave the way for engagement in bureaucratic and advisory actions, and because the threat is mild and with sufficient time to make decisions, bureaucratic actions have been turned up and many plans have been chosen to choose the best strategy, but due to the lack of detailed information about the plans and strategic options of the rivals of the time, the place and the type of possible actions of the enemies, the level of uncertainty Russian strategy has not been comprehensive.

The research findings shows that the perception of the authorities of the country was seriously threatened by the crisis as a result of the Ukrainian crisis in the strategic depth and the Russian Federation's secretion, hence the following high-risk crises or at the point A of the Cube on the other hand, the Russians face a lot of pressure for practical action, and the element of strategic surprise has put them under pressure. However, according to the Russian authorities, the Syrian crisis is in the midst of crises and stagnation, or at the C-point, and there is no direct threat to the vital values ​​of Russia, so there is little threat, and this is due to the presence of terrorist elements in the autonomous states of Chechnya and Dagestan, as well as fears from collapse of the balance of power in the Middle East. On the other hand, there is a great deal of opportunity for the Russian authorities and political authorities. Russia has placed a major emphasis on crisis intelligence management with the priority of leveraging hardware and software in crises such as Ukraine, so the scope of Russian actions is prioritized including using an invasive military force, an energy weapon, diplomatic political mechanisms (Geneva one and two, Minsk one and two, and Normandy four) and the media. On the other hand, in the Syrian crisis, due to the fact that there is no direct threat to the Russian land and is outside the country's security loop, it has made the crisis intelligent management model more effective, with a focus on the use of soft, optimal and less costly mechanisms. Hence, the line of Russia's actions in the Syrian crisis has been prioritized, with the urgency of aggressive behavior from diplomatic politicos, the ban on the Tunis Summit, the ban on the Paris Summit, the active participation in the Summit of Astana and Sochi, the alliance and coalition, financial and economic assistance, and information, military support Weapons and media are stretched.

Despite the role of national divisions to strengthen country identity, balancing ethnic and cultural spatial distribution of citizens, and its relative overlap with geographical conditions, fertilization capacities within the place, providing conditions for people's participation in political fate, economic, social and cultural, delivering optimal services and optimize the needs of the people, the basis of national, regional and local development; studies show that the political organization of space in Iran and especially at the local level is faced with challenges and injuries such as the lack of functional structural unity and geographical heterogeneity, the heterogeneous structure of management at the local level, uncertainty of the council system and low levels powerless in the structure of division country system which has led to the ineffectiveness of the system of  country division. Although 81 years have passed since the enactment of the law of civil division, the law and its subsequent amendments has not failed to play a fundamental role in the political organization of space and overcome on territorial flaws and provide local-level benefits. The damage is clearly visible based on the observation of the field in the Urmia County. This county, despite its huge natural resources, economic, social and cultural, the development level is very low and civil divisions in line with the management and development of this county at the local level is inefficient. Given the inefficiencies of the country divisions, the purpose of this study is to identify factors which make the country divisions system at the local level in Urmia inefficient.

This study is practical and is based on qualitative method. In this regard, a case study has been used to conduct research. Research participants are 95 professionals and experts from related organizations in rural and city affairs (including municipality, Agricultural - Jihad Organization, Governor General of West Azerbaijan Province, Governor and etc.). Data collection method is based on deep and semi-structured interviews. The sampling method was based on snowball sampling. Finally, the collected data was analyzed using the Grounded theory as a qualitative approach. 

Urmia county division has changed and is in a state of instability. The system of existing divisions at the local level is ineffective due to severe functional disorders, spatial, physical, economic, social and cultural, the weakness in development opportunities in geographic spaces, unequal distribution of services, the concentration of money, wealth and management in cities, slowing down the information dissemination process, entering executive systems in the sovereignty of villages and the abandonment of the local management systems. An overview of the status of the local level in Urmia county, according to the civil divisions indicates that the divergence and dispersion of the administrative structure of the local level executive with a divergent and dispersed structure of national divisions and has exacerbated the conflicts of the division system and management at this level.

The country divisions of system and the governing spirit on the local level not only do not provide administrative political needs, economic, social, cultural and environmental of Urmia county villages, but also the villages of this county by increasing the upgrade to a higher level and urban integration, as well as the development of state institutions and the weakness of local-level efficiency cause informal settlements and the formation of the phenomenon of spatial conflict. If the divisions country of system at the local level does not fit with the geographic and territorial features, capital, power and management in urban spaces are not prevented, and the ineffectiveness is shaped by the complete transformation of villages over time causing destruction of environment and developing a negative view towards rural areas.

The Middle East has always suffered from the intervention of foreign powers, and these interventions have played an important role in shaping and managing the patterns of security order in this regional security complex. Despite continued foreign intervention, following the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, we have witnessed developments in the region that have increased the acting power of regional powers and their decisive role in the political and security equations in the Middle East. For this reason, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003 became an important milestone in the security developments in the Middle East, as a result of which, since then, most of the security developments in the region revolve around actors and regional powers.

In this paper, descriptive-analytic research method is used to prove the hypothesis. Data gathering procedure is also based on library methods and the use of Internet resources. Findings The US invasion of Iraq has had significant implications for the Middle East security order. The overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the removal of Iraq from the regional balance of power have changed the structure of power distribution, and Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey try to take advantage of the growing power and regional influence. This power competition has made the developments in the region more affected by the actions of these three regional powers. Developments in Lebanon that led to the 33-days war, the expulsion of Syria from Lebanon, the plot and securities of Iran's nuclear program, the Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip in 2008 were among the most important events in the region. As a trans-regional power, the United States has made every effort to manage this competition and prevent Iran from gaining power. Therefore, we see that in addition to the US actions, the three regional powers of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are among the main pillars of security developments in the Middle East. In this paper, an attempt has been made to evaluate the actions and effects of these regional powers on the security structure of the Middle East in 2003-2011, relying on the three elements of regional structure and role and the orientation of foreign policy.

In the regional structure section, it should be noted that the structure of the Middle East region was formed from 2003 to 2011 based on the distribution of power between the three main powers of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Role: In evaluating the role of these three powers in 2003 to 2011, we can be said that between 2003 and 2011, Iran simultaneously played all three roles of regional leadership, custodianship, and protection, in line with its definition of the desired security order. Saudi Arabia has also sought to create and lead anti-Iranian regional coalition, while also playing the role of custodianship against Iran's efforts to change the existing security order. Turkey's regional role between 2003 and 2011 can also be interpreted in terms of Turkey's efforts to play a leading role in economic development in the Middle East.

The Orientation of Iran's Foreign Policy from 2003 to 2011 can be considered an activist orientation, relying on a change in the current situation and based on multilateralism. Saudi Arabia's foreign policy orientation has also shifted to an active regional activist policy to counter Iran's regional influence. It has also been able to create a regional and global consensus, particularly on the Lebanese developments and the security of the nuclear issue, and to act multilaterally against Iran. The direction of Turkey's foreign policy from 2003 to 2011 can also be assessed as an activist policy based on multilateralism and maintaining the status quo, along with accepting calm and lasting change.

As a result of the discussion, it can be said that the US attack on Iraq upset the balance of power in the region and, as a result, disrupted the security order in the Middle East. Influenced by the developments mentioned above, we have witnessed an increase in the role and influence of regional powers in regional security developments.

This research aims at investigating Iran's security and defense policies after JCPOA. One of the most important issues that have been posed among international relations and political science experts is how Iran's security and defense policies will continue in post-JCPOA era. The research question dealt with in this research is as follows: What is the impact of JCPOA on Iran’s security and defense policies? The hypothesis is that “the comprehensive nuclear agreement inspired by the teachings and norms of the nonproliferation regime has not only solved Iran's nuclear crisis and strengthened international peace and security, but also contributed to enhancing Iran's international status and strengthening Iran's regional influence and role. Various analysts and politicians have analyzed the post-JCPOA issue from different perspectives. Considering JCPOA's constituents, some examined its form and content. On the one hand, there are proponents of the JCPOA agreement who believe that reducing tensions over nuclear issues through cooperation can produce a trusting experience and lead to more cooperation and confidence-building. Opponents of the nuclear deal, on the other hand, criticize it, arguing that it has not led to any significant change in Iran's regional policy, and that the deal has in fact strengthened Iran economically which results in Iran's more aggressive approach.

Based on the nature of research “descriptive-analytic" method was chosen for the current research. The research is framed in neoclassical realism school. In neoclassical realism, the aim is to refine neo-realist theory by adding internal mediating variables among systemic motives and stimuli and foreign policy decisions. Accordingly, in foreign policy analysis, the internal characteristics of countries such as the ability of policymakers to extract resources to pursue and achieve foreign policy goals are examined.

The findings of this study are discussed under the following themes: Iran's regional policies after JCPOA are the outcome of national and international systemic factors. JCPOA has strengthened Iran's activism in pursuing its regional and strategic policies. Regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Israel consider JCPOA as a factor which is increased in Iran's activism in the region. Since US's withdrawal from the JCPOA and the formation of a new alliance and coalition in the region, we see increased pressure on Iran to change its regional policies. Since US's withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran is perusing its deterrent power in the region and is emphasizing the strengthening of the axis of resistance.

Iran's regional policy has always been one of the serious challenges of US Middle-East policy after 1979. Therefore, in this study, the JCPOA has been analyzed according to this framework. The US goal in JCPOA was to content Iran and create a kind of balance in the region to ensure her interests and also her allies’ interests and when the US failed to achieve these goals, she withdrew from the agreement. In the United States, there were two main approaches to the nuclear negotiations and the agreement: the opponents of the nuclear talks believed that Iran's nuclear program was a significant tool for exerting pressure and sanctions and a tool to reduce Tehran's regional and international power and influence; the proponents of the agreement have been working to make the actual transcript of this statement available online. They emphasize on the strategic position of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the regional and international levels, and consider Iran's nuclear program from this perspective.

The research findings show, Iran's regional and strategic policies has played a challenging role in the relationship between Tehran and super and regional powers. It can be concluded that JCPOA has not only resolved the Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear crisis and consolidated international peace and security, but also promoted the status of Islamic embarrassment at the international level and has strengthened and provided Iran with regional influence. As a result, Trump and some of his regional allies have questioned the advantages of JCPOA and they have tried to change Iran's defense and security policies and strategies by resorting to such tools as the formation of new alliances and coalitions in the region and reducing Iran's defensive power and weakening the resistance axis. We have witnessed a change in the US approach before and after withdrawing from JCPOA, the explicit opposition of Saudi Arabia and Israel to JCPOA, Turkey's interest-oriented view of JCPOA, and finally Russia's orientation towards JCPOA. This new approach is to put pressure on Iran to change its regional strategy. These are interpreted as systemic variables by internal variables that play the role of mediators.

Boko Haram is one of the newest terrorist groups in the West African region. due its rapid expansion and the increase in its activities and violence, Boko Haram is the most important terrorist groups in the world after The defeat of ISIS in 2017. Boko Haram's emphasis on violent activities has given to this terrorist group a special character. Boko Haram terrorism, which is more complex than African terrorism not only, have had a high level of violence, but also creating global threat and have ideas for state-building. The group's emphasis on the ideological struggle against the West is another reason that has distinguished this terrorist group in the history of terrorism in West Africa. In other words, while the previous waves of global terrorism in West Africa were largely based on Marxism or nationalism and in some cases anarchism, this is the first time in West Africa that Salafist groups have been able to organize a new wave of religious terrorism. The present study, using the teachings of the theory of "international waves of terrorism" and assuming Boko Haram as a symbol of the fourth wave of international terrorism, raised the question of how Boko Haram's threat in West Africa could affect the region's geopolitics. Boko Haram has close ties with Salafist groups at the domestic, regional and international levels, and in addition to cooperating with extremist Islamist groups in West Africa, which are affiliated with al-Qaeda, it is linked to ISIS and its allies on the African continent. Boko Haram also has links to Salafist terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda, the Taliban, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA), Ansar al-Din (AAD), al-Shabab, Sudan's Ansar al-Islam (Jamāʿatu Anṣāril Muslimīna fī Bilādis Sūdān) and ISIS.

Generally, Trend analysis is the widespread practice of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern. Case study in this article refers to the in depth analysis of some facts about “Boko Haram”. By examining the "trend" of Boko Haram's development, the paper seeks to show the future impact of this trend on West African geopolitics.  In addition, Data were collected by four methods individual interviews, survey on formal reports and news study, documentation collection and study the related Books and journals in Chinese, English and Persian languages. Data analyses was based on describe-analysis.

At the beginning of its formation, Boko Haram emerged as a peace movement that operated peacefully, but gradually replaced its peaceful approach with armed jihad and violence, and became a full-fledged terrorist movement in West Africa. Today, Boko Haram, like other groups in the Fourth Wave of International Terrorism and ISIS, has killed thousands so far in Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon. The group also set fire to some Christian villages in Nigeria, treating 276 abducted girls as slaves. Boko Haram has also declared an Islamic caliphate following the example of ISIS in Iraq and the Levant. Like ISIS, Boko Haram believes that the Islamic State and Caliphate must spread throughout the world, and that non-Muslim killings are necessary to achieve this goal. This article shows The organizational structure of the Boko Haram hierarchy and pyramid is very similar to that of other religious terrorist groups. Since 2011, Boko Haram, like other terrorist groups linked to the fourth wave of international terrorism, has dramatically altered Nigeria's internal security scene by carrying out suicide attacks. As the analysis of trends shows, Boko Haram does not restrict itself from operating on the borders of Nigeria, and the claim of creating a caliphate, has significantly affected the Muslim population of the West African region.  In addition, international aid from Saudi Arabia and some Arab countries has increased the group's power. This article shows that Boko Haram can no longer be considered a religious terrorist movement, but must be considered a multinational movement that has international supporters. By taking advantage of the experiences of some Muslim politicians in this country, Boko Haram has been able to continuously strengthen its structure and power. Selecting different names from the beginning of the activity until today, and examining the "trend" of words from which Boko Haram was born, shows that the "words" of this terrorist group have always been aimed at expanding and becoming international. Boko Haram extremists have also been able to expand their ties with radical Salafist groups and use their support to play an influential role in the West African region. Comparing ISIL's actions in Iraq and Syria and Boko Haram in Nigeria reveals that the two groups' methods of intimidation are very similar. In other words, Boko Haram is following the same path as ISIL, with the exception that ISIL eventually defeated from West Asian regional order and the power of Iran, while none of Nigeria's neighboring states have the power to deal with Boko Haram. Finally, this article shows that Boko Haram has made the West African region (especially Nigeria) the mainstay of its activities, attracting young Muslims from northern Nigeria and Africa to the core of the group. These new conditions could fill the political power gap in the region and ultimately lead to many geopolitical changes in West Africa.