نشریه مطالعات و سیاستهای اقتصادی
سال ششم شماره 2 (پیاپی 12، پاییز و زمستان 1398)

The main objective of this paper is to find the optimal model of the monetary and fiscal policy tool for economic growth. Accordingly, we used four models with different combinations of liquidity to provide an optimal model for determining the optimal combination of monetary and fiscal policy in the short term and long-term results, and show how the optimal tools for optimal combination monetary and fiscal policies lead to economic growth. In all of these models, the ARDL method has the effect of monetary policy through terms such as the volume of banknotes and coins, the volume of long-term deposits, the rate of interest on long-term deposits, exchange rates and fiscal policies through variables such as public revenues and public expenditure on growth Real gross nominal production for the period 1978-2017 is analyzed and the moderation rate of each model is analyzed. The results show that combination No. 4 is accepted in both short and long term terms, both monetary and fiscal policies are effective in sustained economic growth.

The achievement of high economic growth rates and stable including the important issues of each country. On the other hand, government debt and threshold effects (especially on economic growth) is also one of the basic problems of countries into account. Hence, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of general government debt ratio on economic growth in MENA counties during the period of 2000-2019. To conduct this review of panel data regression model a gentle transition (PSTR) has been used. The test results being linear, nonlinear relationship between strongly studied variables to verify it. Also in terms of the transfer of a function with a parameter of a threshold which represents a model of two nonlinear regime stipulated for the relationship among the variables with Adequacy Based on the results of a threshold for MENA countries, , in order to 38.1 also against the slope parameter 1.74 estimated. In MENA countries the first variable in the extent of the general government debt ratio positive affect and negative affect in the second part they have on economic growth.

In recent years, stock price in the Tehran Stock Exchange has suffered many times from the bubble. Part of this bubble in the Tehran Stock Exchange is caused by sentiment shocks. It is important to accurately measure and examine the stability of the impact of sentiment shocks on the stock price bubble. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of sentiment shocks on the stock price bubble and to investigate the stability of the impact of sentiment shocks on the stock price bubble. To do so, quarterly data on total stock price index for the period 1995 -2014 were used. The software used to investigate the research model is Dynar. The impact of variable which is related to the investor’s sentiment shock is the relative size of the old bubble to the new bubble, which causes bubble fluctuations and stock price fluctuations. The results indicate that sentiment shock explains much of the stock price fluctuations as compared to consumption, investment, and production fluctuations. These shocks are transmitted to the real economy through credit constraints.

In recent years, stock flow consistent models (SFC) have been receiving considerable attention from economists, especially Post-Keynesian economists.In recent years SFC models’ capability in prediction of economic crisis in 2008 along with the publication of a book entitled Monetary Economics, by Wynne Godley and Marc Lavoie turned a new light on the importance of these models. These models use accounting approach for economic modeling and provides a framework for treating the financial and the real sides of the economy in an integrated way and predict endogenous shocks. Moreover, to describe the behavior of economic agents, SFC models take the advantage of behavioral equation. The purpose of this study is to explain the fundamentals of SFC models and to employ them for assessment of monetary and fiscal policy. Considering the fact that the SFC models can be developed using distinctive approaches, we structured a SFC model employing Neoclassic and Post-Keynesian and calculating steady state, to analyze the impact of monetary and fiscal policy within the framework of the developed model.

The development of the banking sector by collecting internal and external savings and its efficient allocation to investment needs can facilitate the process of capital accumulation and by boosting economic growth; it will increase the per capita income and its fair distribution in society and help to provide social welfare. Therefore, this research has tried to investigate the effect of banking sector development on social welfare in Iran's provinces during the period of 2007-2017. To this end, the sen social welfare function and the domestic credit to private sector by banks as an alternative to the banking sector development. The research model was estimated using panel data and generalized moment method. The results showed that the effect of banking sector development on social welfare in Iran's provinces is positive and significant. Also, the effect of control variables including inflation rate and unemployment rate on social welfare in Iran's provinces is negative and significant and the impact of tax revenues on social welfare in Iranian provinces is not statistically significant.

The issue of labor supply and employment level response to the taxation system is one of the most controversial issues in the theoretical literature of economics with an uncertain outcome. The purpose of the present study is to examine the impact of fiscal policy on employment taxation and to test the hypothesis that taxation has a negative impact on employment rate. For this purpose, the Error Correction Method (ECM), the Toda-Yamamoto causality test and Iran annual time series data were used for the period of 1978 - 2017. The results of the vector error correction method confirmed a positive and significant relationship between the variables of import tax, GDP and consumer price index, as well as a negative and significant relationship between corporate tax and unemployment rate. Impulse response functions also shows that with the positive shock of corporate tax variables, the unemployment rate increases in the short run and tends to zero in the long run. Also, by creating a positive shock from the import tax variables and the consumer price index, the unemployment rate drops in the short run and tends to zero in the long run. It should be noted that the impact of positive shocks on GDP is on the volatile unemployment rate.

From 1384 to 1395, Iran's labor market experienced two puzzling behaviors in the total number of employees, which we call: “puzzles of jobless growth (1384-1390) and growthless employment (1391-1395)". These two puzzles cannot be explained by focusing only on the net changes in the total number of employees. Alternatively, we need to focus on the dynamic labor market indicators. For this purpose, we estimated the labor flow rates for these two periods. Our results indicate that the sharp increase in the total number of employees between 1391 and 1395 was correlated with a sharp reduction in the separation rate and, contrary to expectation, the hire rate did not increase. We also found that, in the second period, workers became more stable in their current activity status in comparison to the first period.

The role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in various aspects of national economies is a substantial issue that has attracted the attention of many researchers and policy makers. The potential of SMEs in job creation, fostering the dynamism of the economic sectors, strengthening the economic resilience, promoting the innovation levels, and improving the economic growth are known as the most pivotal features of these enterprises. The present study focusing on Iranian economy, seeks to analyze the impact of factors affecting the growth of SMEs’ value added in 22 two-digit ISIC codes, using panel data approach for the period of 2005-2015. The findings of this study indicate that innovation growth in SMEs has a positive significant effect on their value added growth; furthermore, an increase in the openness degree of Iranian economy has not affected the growth of SMEs’ value added positively. Moreover, the growth of production inputs used in traditional growth models (physical capital, labor, and human capital) can have a positive significant effect on SMEs’ value added growth.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate and assess the degree of exchange rate pass-through in countries with medium and high per capita income. To this end, data from 59 different countries (including 39 countries with average per capita income and 20 countries with high per capita income) have been used over the period 1980 to 2018. The results of the GMM model show that the degree of exchange rate pass-through in countries with medium and high per capita income is 14% and 16%, respectively. As the per capita GDP increases, the degree of exchange rate pass-through increases. Also, the results of the nonparametric panel model with time-varying parameters show that the degree of exchange rate pass-through vary over time in both groups of countries. And in the 1980s, the degree of the exchange rate pass-through was at its highest level. In such a way that in countries with medium per capita income after the 1980s, the degree of exchange rate pass-through declines until 2005, and after 2005  until 2018, the rate of exchange rate pass-through again increased. However, in countries with high per capita incomes, the rate of exchange rate pass-through during 1980 to 1993 had an increasing trend, but after1993 the rate of exchange rate pass-through has declined almost continuously until 2018.

From a point of objectivity, agriculture, which is working for a given product with a degree of quality, is sure to depend on some cases, including the following: Type or strength of seed, land fertility, environmental conditions and handling the process of cultivation and production. For a dynamic economy, the utilization of the potential capacity of Manpower, improvement of a skill, cognition, and cultivation of the mindset and social and cultural environment after agents are at the stake. Having in mind that they are indispensable principles if we believe in this scientific statement: “ institute is the product of institutions”, then it necessitates to provide appropriate institutions for an established and systematic order, which was the ideal mission of J R Commons at all his life. In this study, we concentrate on the importance of legal foundation of market economy and the process of forming these foundations by the bottom-up approach, which involves Full participation of agents subjected to the rule of law through collective negotiation and bargaining between stakeholder The necessity of initiative in legislation to economic actors, not lawyers and legislators from the philosophical point of view, are discussed in this study.

Religious cultural industries such as religious tourism, the implementation of traditional religious ceremonies can have beneficial effects directly and indirectly on economic growth. Due to the high cultural and religious potential of Iran, Iran has many important features and capabilities. In this article, the effect of religious cultural industries on economic growth in selected provinces of Iran will be examined. In the framework of dynamic integration regression (GMM) during the period of 1379-1397, attention was paid to the data published in 1397 directly and indirectly from the channel Human capital is estimated. This model follows the study of Levine and Renelt using the principle of simplification based on the sample. Also, the results of the estimation are based on panel data regression. During the studied period, the effect of relative enhancement of religious cultural variables on economic growth is positive and significant. Also, the results of model estimation show that this indicator from the human capital can also affect the economic growth of the province.

Inflation caused economic instability and has undesirable effects on economy performance such as economic growth, consumption, investment and other economic variables. On the other hand inflation affected several factors such as monetary and fiscal policy and political factors. Political situation is one of the element that noted by many of researches especially democracy situation. Many researchers had used political business cycle to explanation of inflation and democracy relationship that Nordhaus (1975) was progressive researcher in this subject. Thus the aim of this research is to investigate the relationship between democracy and inflation rate in selected countries of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by panel data approaches over 2000-2016 periods. The results of fixed panel data estimation showed that democracy has negatively and significantly effects on inflation in selected countries of MENA. Also gross domestic product has negatively and significantly effects on inflation, too. On the other hand liquidity and government size have positively and significantly effects on inflation but trade have positively effects on inflation but not significantly.