فصلنامه پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی
پیاپی 41 (زمستان 1399)

In the present study, the effect of economic uncertainty on the efficiency of monetary policy has been investigated using data from the first quarter of 1989 to the fourth quarter of 1396. For the purpose of the present study, first, we determine the optimal economic uncertainty index by using SOS search algorithm. After determining the optimal economic uncertainty index, using the Interaction Vector Autoregressive (IVAR) approach to calculate the impulse response functions (IRFs) of inflation and production variables to the shock of M_1 variable under high and low uncertainty levels. The results show that under different levels of uncertainty, the variable response of production and inflation to the shock of the M_1 variable is different, so that the response of production variable under low uncertainty is higher than the high uncertainty level, while the variable response Inflation is reversed, meaning that the response to this shock, under high uncertainty is higher than the low uncertainty level.

Although economic growth is affected by the growth of factors of production, governance and government size were also effective in economic growth. In this study, the impact of government size and governance on the economic growth of perspective document countries evaluated over the period 2017-2006. To meet this end, The World Bank database and data of perspective document countries were used. Moreover, the optimum size of the government evaluated based on the proposed Baro method. This article sought to estimate the effect of size government and governance by using panel data and the threshold nonlinear two-stage generalized method of moment. The findings indicated that the average optimal size of the government was 18.38% of the gross domestic product. Also, in countries with less government size, the growth of government expenditures had a positive effect on economic growth, while countries with a government size larger than optimal, government spending had a negative effect on economic growth. In addition, the results confirmed economic growth was affected by the governance of the state.

Political and economic policymakers believe that the development of good governance plays a key role in the political and economic development of countries. Therefore, it is important to identify the effective factors on the efficiency of good governance in order to adopt appropriate policies for promoting the political and economic system, because through the promotion of good governance, economic growth can be achieved. According to the views of institutionalist economists, one of the factors influencing institutional development is the independence of the central bank. Central Bank autonomy, through the creation of institutional structures and institutions, changes the other variables, such as state financial discipline, increased transparency and accountability, and these mechanisms help to improve good governance. In this study, the relationship between central bank independence and good governance indicators using GMM method and correlation coefficient during the period of 2002 to 2017 were investigated. In this research, the International Risk Management Index (ICRG) has been used as a good governance indicator, which includes ranking 22 variables in three sub-categories of different political risks, financial risk and economic risk, and the Mathew Index 2006) has been used as an indicator of the independence of the central bank. The Central Bank's Independence Index has been analyzed in three areas of monetary policy independence, political independence and financial independence. The findings of the research showed that the independence of the central bank has a significant effect on good governance, so that the increase in the independence of monetary policy, political independence and financial independence leads to a decrease in political, financial and economic risk.

Human resources are considered as one of the pillars and key elements of the growth and development of each country. In this regard, women, as half of the population of the society, play a decisive role in advancing the goals of growth and development. So, first of all, it is necessary to consider this part of the society in planning and policy. Second, different policies can have different effects on the quantity and quality of their performance. One aspect of this discussion is how macroeconomic policies affect women's participation in the labor market and gender gaps in employment. Therefore, in this paper, the effects of monetary, fiscal and oil shocks on macroeconomic variables such as production, employment of women and men, total employment and gender inequality in the labor market are discussed, in the framework of a DSGE model. The results indicate that all shocks (monetary, fiscal and oil shocks) increase production, employment of women and men, and total employment. These shocks increase men's employment more than women's, and as a result, gender inequality in the labor market increases.

In this study we used "optimal control theory" to evaluate the optimum path of monetary and fiscal policy in Iran's economy during the period of between 1963 until 2006. So, with regard to dynamic behavior of economic variables in country, at first we have defined simultaneous System of equilibrium between both real and money sector of economy in the framework New Keynesian model (IS- LM); and were estimated by three stage least squares method. Then we have evaluated the optimum path of government consumer expenditure (fiscal tool) and money stock (monetary tool) with using the optimal control theory in four runs. The obtained results of these four runs are representative of this point that the obtained optimum path for monetary and fiscal tools is not coinciding with the defined desired path (based on growth rate of line steady). Also, a seventy control of each separately causes reduces deviance of the target variables optimum path from its desired path (like the gross domestic product, price level,….) and the simultaneous use of two led to most reduces deviance of optimum paths from desired paths. Then, through six scenarios in optimal control theory, the objectives of the research are provided. So, the obtained results of this research show us that Iran's economy needs to use simultaneous of monetary and fiscal policy coordinated and simultaneously, to reach the target variables desired level. In this way, the synthetic policies will show us the better results than choosing separately each of polices of toward aggregate Demand.Therefore, it is suggested that the use of fiscal policy be given priority.

Export is one of the determinants of business development and sustainable economic growth, which in the modern economy is strongly influenced by superior technology and economic complexity index. Since scientific productivity provides the conditions for the acquisition of superior technology, therefore, to the extent that export development can be tailored to the export-oriented characteristics of non-renewable sources in developing countries, the challenge is to what extent has the growth of scientific productivity been able to affect the export of high-tech developing countries? The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of the scientific productivity index on high-tech exports of G15 developing countries during 2000-2018; using Panel Data Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) method. The results show that in a 10-yearly period, generating a shock in scientific productivity has a positive effect on high technology exports and over time the impact of increasing scientific productivity on high technology exports increases. Moreover, a positive shock in financial risk, initially leads to an ever-increasing export of high technology exports but the effects are not permanent and diminishes after about 4 years. The economic risk also has a positive effect on increasing high technology exports, while the impact of political risk is negligible on high technology exports in the long and short term. The results of variance decomposition also show that the variables with high technology export, economic risk and scientific productivity have the most impact on the high technology export respectively.Financial risk has little effect and political risk has the least impact on high-tech exports.

Comparability is a qualitative feature that adds to the usefulness of financial and economic information. Macroeconomic variables can affect the relationship between comparability and dividend payout. Therefore, this paper examines the moderating role of macroeconomic variables in the relationship between comparability criteria and dividend payout policy. The sample consists of 119 active companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange for the period 2011 to 2017. To measure the comparability, three criteria of earnings comparability, operating cash flows comparability, and discretionary accruals comparability have been utilized. Multivariate linear regression model using Eviews9 software was used to test the research hypotheses. The results showed that the net income comparability had a significant negative effect on dividends payout. The effect of interest rate on the relationship between net income comparability and dividend payout has been positive and significant. Inflation had a positive and significant effect on the relationship between net income comparability and dividend payout. The official exchange rate had a significant negative impact on the relationship between net income comparability and dividend payout, and also it had a significant negative impact on the relationship between discretionary accruals comparability and dividend payout. The effect of the informal exchange rate on the relationship between net income comparability and dividend payout has been negative and significant.