فصلنامه پژوهش های حفاظتی - امنیتی
پیاپی 31 (پاییز 1398)

In this article, the author seeks to find appropriate answers to several questions about the fate of Abu Bakr al- Baghdadi's caliphate and its affiliated human capital, as well as geopolitics, the nature and consequences of their anti-security activities in order to outline the geopolitical perspective of terrorist - takfiri  activities in the Islamic world after the collapse of the structure and political geography of the caliphate. Based on this, the author has drawn the geopolitical model of the Islamic world in three areas of "axis of resistance", "neo-ottomanism" and "Wahhabi orientation in the Islamic world" by relying on the scenario writing method called "GBN" in future studies. Relying on dual uncertainties, four scenarios have been narrated, the first one is "returning to the original territory to revive the caliphate of Iraq and the Levant"; the second scenario is "emigration to an alternative territory for the formation of Khorasan province"; the third scenario is "returning to the cyber ​​territory to establish a virtual caliphate" and the fourth scenario is "emigration to the mediating territory for the formation of the north African province". Finally, the anti-security consequences, sustainable strategies, and wild cards associated with the scenarios are introduced.  According to the researcher, in the current situation, the second and third scenarios have more operational capability at the same time. Since the most important utopia of the salafi, jihadi and takfiri currents; That is to say, the revival of the caliphate is in the geopolitics of Iraq and the Levant, if the time and environmental conditions are provided, this current will use all anti-security tools and facilities to return to its original territory in Syria (achieving the first scenario). Among the four scenarios, due to the distance of this current from the axis of resistance and the proximity to its trans-regional supporters, the most desirable scenario for the Islamic world and the axis of resistance is the fourth scenario; that is to say, is emigration to the mediating territory for the formation of the North African province.

    The holly system of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been established in Iran with the philosophy of denying tyranny and arrogance, implementing Islamic rules, paving the way for the emergence of human savior and worldly and otherworldly prosperity and the factors of the victory of that leadership are the people and having orientation toward religion and its obstacles are the enemies of the revolution and global arrogance. In the statement of the second step of the Islamic Revolution, the supreme leader of Iran emphasizes on having insight, identifying enemy and mentioning the consequences of not knowing the enemy. The intensity of expression and the frequency of repetition of these cases indicate the importance of this issue and different approaches and differences of views of some officials and currents at different levels; indicate the existence of differences in identifying enemy at the macro level of the Islamic system. The lack of a model of identifying enemy while disrupting the actions of system's officials will have a negative impact on maintaining the Islamic system. The purpose of this study is to achieve the model of identifying enemy in the statement of the second step of the Islamic Revolution. The research method is applied - development in terms of purpose and in terms of implementation is qualitative and data based. In practice, after selecting the title of research and review of theoretical literature, word mining was performed from the main text of the statement and the desired data was determined. In the first place, open coding was performed, and 138 concepts or codes were extracted. In axial coding, by comparing and categorizing the titles, 64 indicators were obtained. In selective coding with more general categorization, the organized data in the form of components reached to 14 items. In the fifth stage, in consultation with experts and the implementation of multivoting, the components were separated and modeled in four dimensions (basic factors of identifying enemy, reinforcing factors, weakening factors and the results and consequences of identifying enemy) and then the final model was presented.

Forty years have passed since the blessed life of the Islamic Republic of Iran; an age that the country has witnessed ups and downs in various fields. During this period, in addition to successes and progresses in various fields, there were also unrests, the unrests that challenged the holly system of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The unrests that have taken place over the last four decades have often been caused by some operational malfunctions and enemy's plans to exploit existing failures. The Islamic Republic of Iran has also been able to manage the mentioned unrests by paying material and spiritual expenses, which has been the result of the efforts of military, security and intelligence organizations and institutions and the presence and support of the people. The fact is that the role of the people, both as a supporter and a companion and as a major actor, in managing the unrest has been very special and decisive. Review of the subject's literature shows that no model has been presented in explaining the process that people play a role in this critical field. With the purpose of presenting a people-based model for dealing with unrest through the use of forty years of experience of the Islamic Republic of Iran, this article attempts to answer the main question: "What is the people-based model for dealing with unrests?". In this regard, the author has studied the valid Persian and English sources using the library method and then extracted the necessary information. In order to validate the theoretical findings, a researcher-made questionnaire was prepared and provided to 30 experts familiar with the management of unrest as a statistical sample. Findings of the article showed that the factors of the people-based model of dealing with unrest include principles, strategic assets, facilitators and driver that the components of each of the mentioned factors and the relationships between them have been identified and explained.

The existence of dissatisfaction and the emergence of civil protests due to social - economic changes in Iran are among the issues that have led to political instability and sometimes security unrests, especially during the implementation of liberal policies. Also, social-economic crises in countries such as Argentina, Venezuela, and Greece have emerged in recent decades, which have many similarities with each other in economic, political and other dimensions. In these countries, drastic neoliberal changes have led to the weakening of public livelihoods and, consequently, to protests and break of the political system. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to compare the formation of protests and political crises resulting from the implementation of neoliberal policies in Iran with Venezuela, Greece and Argentina. Therefore, the main question is "How did the neoliberal structural changes in the Iran's economy and society, in a comparative study with the situation of Venezuela, Chile, Argentina and Greece, affect the formation of protests and political crises?". This research uses the documentary and qualitative study method of secondary analysis of existing data to collect data. And also, uses qualitative semi-structured interviews with experts to develop indicators for comparative study and theoretical saturation

The strategic region of West Asia since, due to the formation of popular movements and waves of freedom, has witnessed deep and devastating momentums since 2011 in the form of developments called the Islamic awakening. Among the countries that have experienced these developments, Syria has been considered as one of the most important centers of geopolitical gravity in West Asia, because it is the central core and the balance pyramid between the old and new alignments of the region. Remarkably, long before the beginning of the Syria political-economic crisis, Tehran, due to issues related to the axis of resistance and the need for playing a role in line with the ideals of the Islamic revolution of Iran, as well as maintaining and strengthening its allies in the region, had special orientations in relation to this strategic land that has gained special importance in terms of political geography in the West Asian region. Given these cases, this article adopts a descriptive-analytical method and attempts to answer the innovative question: "What are the items that affect the Islamic republic of Iran's activism in the light of the political-security crisis in Syria?". The hypothesis raised by the above question is influenced by the Syrian internal crisis and the activity type of the "Western –Arabic - Hebrew" axis, and apart from the aggregation of the dimensions considered by the Copenhagen school, which poses fundamental challenges to Syria's economic, political, military, social and environmental security, the regional security of Tehran has also faced deep threats such as weakening the axis of resistance, the formation of discourse conflicts, the escalation of sectarian-religious tensions, as well as the geographical spread of the conflict in the region. Therefore, Tehran considers the strategy of alliance with Syria as an opportunity through which it can pursue its national interests by confronting oppositional governmental and quasi-governmental groups, while expanding its regional power and strengthening its national security.

 The need for observing privacy is an obvious matter, and religious sources indicate that investigating and invading the privacy is prohibited. On the other hand, in order to protect employees of armed forces and state, in some cases it is necessary to investigate and invade the privacy of individuals, and as a result, in some cases, a conflict occurs between the rights of individuals and the organization, and then raises the question of "is it permissible to investigate and invade the privacy of armed forces' employees?". "If so, what are the limits of it?". Using library sources and describing and analyzing the evidence, the authors have come to the conclusion that the primary ruling of investigation is the sanctity, but the secondary ruling is permissible in some cases and forbidden in some cases due to its types. However, since the permission of investigation is based on the existence of criteria for conflict, so wherever there are the criteria for the conflict (existence of expediency, realization of the importance related to investigation and absence of mandooha (solution and evasion) and ...), investigation is permissible, otherwise it is forbidden. Accordingly, this article examines the existence or non-existence of criteria for conflict in each of these types by classifying the types of investigation and its objectives in the armed forces and states the verdict of each, and finally, by establishing the principle, it has proved that In cases of doubtful permission, the practical principle of the sanctity of investigation must be adhered to.