مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی
سال سی و چهارم شماره 3 (پیاپی 48، پاییز 1399)

Agricultural sector plays a vital role in Iran’s economy but this sector has pursued an unsustainable route mostly because of land and water resources degradation resulting from inefficient use of irrigation water and intensive use of inorganic inputs. However, increasing production is not the only relevant goal in farming systems. It is important to consider the effects of agriculture on soil productivity, pollution, water and energy use efficiency, Greenhouse gas emissions and social aspects. In fact, there is a strong interest for redefining production systems looking for a balance between high productivity and the protection of the environmental services provided by these farming systems. In this regard, current study evaluated environmental, economic and social impacts of agricultural systems in Kouhdasht area as one of the important regions of Lorestan province using multi-criteria compromise programming (CP) and a set of different weights. Gross margin, direct expenses and crops acreage were the indicators considered for economic sustainability analysis. The environmental indicators were water use, EIQ (environmental impact quotient), use of fertilizer, insecticides and pesticides, soil organic carbon and crop rotation. The social indicators considered for analysis were employment and education level. The basic idea in compromise programming as a well-known multi-criteria decision-making method, is to identify an ideal solution that can be obtain from the available options. This ideal solution is a point reference for decision maker and options or alternatives are ranked based on how far they are from it. The findings of this study include the identification of a set of agricultural systems based on different views or weights. These optimal agricultural systems are compared to the current agricultural systems.

In current study a compromise programming optimization model was solved to find efficient agricultural systems, according to economic, environmental and social criteria, for crop/livestock farms. An agricultural system can be shown as a linear combination of activities. Each activity is characterized by the resources and inputs employed, the type and quantity of the output produced and the environmental impacts. Generally, eight agricultural systems corresponding to different crops and livestock production were considered for analysis. The evaluation of sustainability of agriculture requires determination of attributes or indicators covering economic, environmental and social dimensions. In fact, the concept of attribute or indicator is fundamental in multi-criteria models. In this study, three economic, six environmental and two social indicators are included as attributes. Selection of indicators was based on relevance of the indicators, the frequency of using the indicator in previous studies and availability of data. The solution of CP entailed of finding the lowest distance to the ideal for all the criteria. Decision-maker preferences were simulated using nine scenarios, which combine three distance functions (π = 1, π = 2 and π =100), and three different weights based on the importance of different dimensions.

The results showed that, based on the first weight group (environmental view) and at the low and high weight for deviations (π =1 and π = 100), wheat1 and sugar beet1 systems are the most sustainable system respectively. But sugar beet2 system is the most unstable agricultural system at all levels of π and in all areas. Overuse of groundwater for irrigation, fertilizer and pesticide in some areas further reinforced agricultural unsustainability. In the second weight group (economics view) and for π = 2, activity diversification (crop -livestock) system was more balanced than continuous crop farming. In the third weight group (equal weight to all dimensions) and for π = 2, sugar beet1 and the rain fed cultivated systems were the most sustainable. In other values of π, the sugar beet2 had the least sustainable index. The findings of this study indicate instability in Azadbakht Korapa and Cham Sangar villages in all weight groups, while Katkan village is most sustainability for π = 2. Results also showed that for π = 1, Kohnani and Eastern Tarhan rural district are most sustainable and most unsustainable rural district respectively. The lack of sustainable agricultural production in Eastern Tarhan in π = 1, was due to limited economics performance in rural district. However, in high levels of sensitivity to deviations from the ideal level, the rural district of Boluran and the Western Tarhan,are most unsustainable rural district, and North and South Kouhdasht, Golgol, Darb Gombad and Ziretang are the most sustainable rural district in the region. Finally, by putting different dimensions of sustainability, this study extracted ten independent and distinct patterns of sustainability using data mining. Farms in patterns 5 and 8 were experienced relative sustainable, and farms in the pattern 6, were unsustainable in all dimensions.

It was inferred from the results of this study that there are regional differences in agricultural sustainability in Kouhdasht. As a result, it is suggested that effective agricultural policies be adopted in accordance with local research.

Off-farm activities have become an important component of livelihood strategies among rural households in most developing countries. According to available evidence, off-farm income is an important source of income for most rural households, which is important for economic, governmental and nongovernmental organizations, and international representatives of development and advancement. Several studies have reported a substantial and increasing share of off-farm income in total household income. Reasons for this observed income diversification includes declining farm income and the desire to insure against agricultural production and market risks. Non-agricultural activities, which are referred to as off-farm activities, are part of the rural economic sector, which is essential for improvement and assistance that can be referred to as an economic incentive for activities as well as field activities. Due to the development of off-farm activities in rural areas, its share of income has slowly increased and off-farm incomes appear as a contributing factor to the flow of income, which is due to its low income variation. Off-farm activity is a factor in creating diversity in activities and strategies to increase incomes, especially in the time of farm production decline among rural households. Using the theory of time allocation of households, incentives to allocate time to out-of-field activities, which not only relate to wage factors but also family structure and individual preferences, are identified.

In order to investigate the effect of various factors on having an off-farm activity, regression models with a dummy dependent variable are required. Farmers' time allocation to different activity is a function of some variables, such as individual, regional and family characteristics. The model used in the present study is as follows:  In which the dependent variable is a multiple choice that in this study shows employment in various activities including agriculture, activities related to agriculture and non-agricultural activities. The multinomial logit model was used to investigate the factors affecting the time allocation of farmers in Marvdasht. Another objective of the present study is to answer the question of whether off-farm activity will increase or decrease income inequality. To measure the inequality created by each source of income, the income-resource variance was used. The percentage of total inequality decomposition is obtained from the following formula. It shows the extent to which inequality is created for each source of income. 

Based on the results, comparing the results of the Logit model and the multinomial logit model indicate that the type of non-agricultural activities is important in the allocation of time and the establishment of various policies for the development of off-farm activities. The level of education has a positive effect on off-field employment due to its effect on creating more job opportunities for individuals. The amount of land owned by the farmer was another important factor in the implementing off-farm activities unrelated to agriculture. According to the results in Marvdasht County, variables such as age, education, livestock breeding, number of extension classes, number of dependent persons, household expenses, expenditure to agricultural income, family labor force and car value have a significant effect on the probability of time allocation to outside activities related to agriculture. Regarding agricultural activities, all variables except for the history of land use and land use ratio have a significant effect on the dependent variable. Also, based on the results, the lowest and largest share of income inequality in households are related to the off-farm activities which is unrelated to agriculture and farming, respectively. Creating the necessary facilities to increase the level of education of households, encouraging off-farm activities for small farmers, along with investing in the development of off-farm activities in rural areas can help to allocate their time to non-agricultural activities along with agriculture and increase income equality.

Risk is considered as a negative factor in producing agricultural products. Yet, the presence of risk is not restraining producers from production as long as the generated revenue is proportional to the perceived risk and thereby, the cost of the risk is compensated. The purpose of this study is to measure systematic risk of wheat production in Iran's provinces, and evaluate how the risk is offset in these regions.

According to Markowitz, there is a tradeoff between risk and returns in considering alternative investment by rational investors. That is, investors expect higher returns for accepting higher risk in considering any investment. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is an equilibrium model based on this theory which measures systematic risk of an investment (activity) and shows how an asset is priced according to its perceived risk. Thus, this model can be used to examine the systematic risk of producing wheat in different regions and the relationship between the risk of producing this crop and the expected price to generate appropriate returns to compensate the undertaken risk by producers. According to Sharp, by regressing the returns of an investment on the returns of market portfolio, the systematic risk factor for such investment is obtained. The risk factor which takes different values from zero to greater than one is a measure of systematic risk of an activity relative to the risk of overall portfolio. This risk factor is used to compute the returns required to compensate the risk associated to the activity.

Results reveal that Yazd province with 0.45 beta coefficient is the least risky province and Mazandaran province with 1.26 beta coefficient is the riskiest province for wheat production in Iran. In fact, based on the results, 20 percent of the wheat producing provinces are classified as high risk in production of this crop. Ardebil, Zanjan and Alborz provinces with systematic risk coefficient of 0.96, West Azerbaijan and Isfahan with systematic risk coefficient of 0.90 are grouped as risky ones. Gilan, Semnan and Hormozgan with systematic risk factor of 0.73 and Bushehr and North Khorasan provinces with systematic risk factor of 0.72 that have similar risk factor are classified as other risky zones. As the results indicate, with 15 percent risk-free rate on investment in the country, wheat producers expect a minimum return of 18 percent in producing wheat in Iran. On the other hand, if the risk-free rate of return on investment rises to 20 percent, wheat producers expect a minimal rate of 19.5 percent. Based on these calculations, prices of this product, and consequently the generated revenues, are in such a way that the returns offset the risk of wheat production in 14 provinces. From this point of view, wheat production in Kurdistan province has the best condition while the production of wheat in the southern province of Kerman shows the worst situation. In addition, results revealed that uncompensated risk in most of the provinces is the result of low yield per hectare and consequently, high average cost in these regions. Thus, focusing on improving productivity is suggested for the specified provinces.

According to the results, uncompensated risk in most of the provinces is the result of low level of yield per hectare and consequently, high level of average cost in these regions. Therefore, it is expected that in the long run, crops with higher yield will be replaced for the wheat and this crop will gradually be removed from the cultivation plan in such provinces. Since wheat is a strategic crop in Iran and to guarantee its production, improving productivity of this product is recommended for the specified provinces.

Food security not only requires an adequate supply of food, but also manages the equitable distribution of food and income. The FAO estimates that about 98% of the world's food insecure and malnourished people live in developing countries, with the largest number of malnourished people living in Asia and the Pacific. Given that the majority of the populations of developing countries live in rural areas, improving the level of food security of rural households is a very prominent goal in developing countries. In Iran also, the ratio of severe malnutrition is 4.9% of the total population. The poverty line in Khorasan Razavi rural areas has increased by 28.4% in the summer of 2018 compared to the spring of 2018, which may indicate that more people are below the poverty line in 2018 than in previous years. Also, in comparing the rural and urban poverty line in Khorasan Razavi, the rural poverty line had a higher growth compared with  the urban poverty line during this period, that indicate an increase in poverty in these areas. So, it is important to examine food security situation especially in these areas and identify the variables that determine it. The aim of current study is to analyze the nutritional status of rural households in Khorasan Razavi province.

Data for the study are prepared by collecting 400 questionnaires from 40 villages selected by multistage cluster sampling in 2019 in Khorasan Razavi province. In this study Berry index and food group counts were used to assess dietary diversity. Using the FAO classification and the human nutritional pyramid, consumed foods were pooled into 14 groups. These include bread, vegetables, fruits, meat, fish and seafood, oils and butter, pastries, spices, cereals, nuts and seeds, eggs, milk and dairy products, Potatoes, drinks and rice. In the Berry Index, dietary diversity is measured by the number and distribution of food consumption and in the food group index, food scores are measured using the 24-hour dietary method. In order to investigate the factors affecting the equal share of rural households' food consumption, the Ordinal Logit model was used. The dependent variable was divided into five groups: very low food diversity, low food diversity, downward average food diversity, upward average food diversity and high food diversity.

Based on results, average index of food groups in the region is 6.08, which indicate that dietary diversity is at a moderate and favorable level, but the average of the Berry index in the study area is 0.83. On average, dietary diversity, and consequently food security, is moderately lower and almost desirable. The difference between the minimum and maximum numerical values of both indices in the sample showed a significant difference between dietary diversity and food security in the studied sample. Thus, the studied rural households are in a moderate level of food security in terms of number of consumed food groups but in moderately low level in terms of share of food groups' consumption. Using the ordinal logit model, variables including gender, education, housing status, monthly food cost, household purchasing power index, awareness, market access and food aid all positively influence household dietary diversity. In other words, increases in the level of these independent variables increase the likelihood that households will be at higher levels of dietary diversity. Parallel regression tests were used to determine whether the ordinal logit model is a suitable model and after performing the relevant test, the ordinal logit model provided the parallel regression condition and the ordinal logit model provided a suitable model.

According to the results of the study, improving the food security of rural households in the region requires providing suitable employment opportunities for female-headed households and providing facilities such as micro-credit for setting up and developing household businesses. It is also needed to provide food aids in a variety of food baskets for rural households.

The potential impacts of climate change on water resources and food security are receiving growing attention especially in regions that face growing challenges like water demands for agricultural, domestic and environmental uses. The anticipated climate change are likely to impact water resources (surface water and groundwater) by altering precipitation patterns and change in nature of rainfall regimes. Apart from the effects on water availability, climate change is expected to adversely affect crop productivity, food security and food producers' income. Climate changes could affect the four dimensions of food security; food availability, access, utilization, and stability. Therefore, this study aims at investigating the economic effects of climate change on the agricultural sector (including the yield of crops, water resources, food security and profitability) in Hamadan-Bahar plain. The hypothesis tested in this research is that climate change has negative impacts on the agricultural sector in the study area and it is necessary to present solutions to reduce these effects. Accordingly, the question answered in this study is whether climate changes in the region reduces crop yields, the profitability of the agricultural sector, and aggravate the scarcity of water resources. For this purpose in this study, the effects of climate change in different scenarios on regional cultivation pattern, basic food cultivation pattern, gross profit of farmers, physical and economic productivity of water and food security in Hamedan-Bahar plain have been investigated and then various suggestions to these problems have been presented.

For this purpose, the physiological, hydrological and meteorological aspects of the problem were integrated into an economic model and the changes in cultivation pattern of the plain were projected in counterfactual climatic scenarios. Accordingly, the outputs of the HadCM3 model under the scenarios of B1 (optimistic) and A2 (pessimistic) were utilized for the fourth report; additionally, the outputs of the ensemble model under RCP 2.6 (optimistic) and RCP 8.5 (pessimistic) scenarios were used for the fifth report of IPCC. Then, the variables of rainfall and temperature for the horizon of 2070 were predicted under scenarios B1, A2, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 using the Lars-WG model. In this regard, the yield response functions of the products with respect to climatic parameters by the Generalized Maximum Entropy method (GME) were estimated and the elasticity of the yield of the products with regard to temperature and rainfall were calculated. Then products yield changes on the 2070 horizon under different climate change scenarios were predicted and by including it in a positive mathematical programming (PMP), the impact of different climate change scenarios on regional cultivation pattern, basic food cultivation pattern, gross profit of farmers, physical and economic productivity of water and food security were examined. To estimate the yield response regression model and predict climate changes by LARS_WG model, the data on the period 1982-1982 were used. Also the data and information of farmers were obtained using a two-stage cluster sampling method in 2018 (baseline).

The results indicate an increase in temperature, a decrease in precipitation, a decrease in the supply of water resources, and consequently a decrease in the yield of most basic food products and an increase in the yield of some vegetable and summer crops were anticipated in all scenarios. The results also showed that the occurrence of the mentioned consequences has negative effects on the total production of crops, the amount of production of basic food products and the gross profit of farmers in the region. And in this regard, in the most pessimistic scenario on the horizon of 2070, it will impose a loss of 490 billion rials on farmers. The increase in the physical and economic efficiency of water in different scenarios shows that water is becoming more valuable due to the decrease in the quantity of water due to climate change. Therefore the economic value of water would increase in the future decades in Hamadan-Bahar plain, which itself represents the severity of water scarcity in the agricultural sector.

The occurrence of climate change by affecting water resources, crop yields, cultivated area, food production and ultimately farmers' incomes, in addition to imposing economic and environmental losses, would affect various aspects of food security such as food availability, access, stability and utilization. Accordingly, in order to maintain and improve the yield of crops and reduce the possible losses imposed on income and food security of the region, it is vital to adopt appropriate strategies compatible with climate change, including the use of new irrigation technologies, deficit irrigation methods and to reform the cultivation pattern by selecting products with higher economic value in order that increase water productivity. Finally improving management of water resources and farmers' income at the plant, farm and region levels, is crucial.

Cornelian Cherry (Cornus mas L.) is one of the most important medicinal and organic products in East Azerbaijan Province which is recognized as the most cultivated area of this crop in Kaleybar county (More than 135 ha of gardens). While due to lack of proper marketing management and lack of complementary industries, it has failed to find its true place in improving the productivity of its producers and economic boom of the region. Influence of brokers in different dimensions of the market and especially the possible future product prices, financial needs and low knowledge of producers in relation to the correct marketing principles and conditions of rapid product corruption are considered in order to maximize profits. What is certain is that brokers, if the right conditions arise, are considered as one of the determining and influential factors in creating a selling price bubble. The influence of brokers on marketing can be explained via 4Ps marketing, which is the most common and at the same time the most widely used type of marketing mix in the field of marketing of agricultural products. Therefore, the aim of the study was to analyze the market structure and marketing methods of this product (4Ps components, marketing routes and marketing methods) with emphasis on the role of brokers in marketing producers in Kaleybar county (in 2018) to create optimal knowledge of the dimensions of brokers' influence in the market.

The statistical population included all active producers of Cornelian Cherry in Kaleybar county (N=1010), which sample size was determined by multistage sampling method with the help of Bartlett's et al. (2001) table. First, five major production areas (Cornelian Cherry gardens) were selected from the research areas. Then, in each region, a number of gardens-villages (7 gardens-villages) were determined randomly and among them, 280 producers (n=280) were selected and interviewed by appropriate proportion. In calculating the reliability of the study instrument, Cronbach's alpha method was used, which confirmed the use of study variables (coefficients above 0.7). For content and appearance validity of the study instrument, suggestions and corrections of a panel of faculty members in economics and agricultural management of Mohaghegh Ardabili University, experts of agricultural jihad organization of the province and executive experts of Kaleybar County were considered. To determine the dominant market direction, the producers were asked to state or outline the available paths in Cornelian Cherry market from the producer to the end customer. Then, by examining the frequency of responses, the dominant path was determined.

The findings showed that the preferred method of marketing among producers was to sell in farm to brokers. Also, the first priority of the influence of 4Ps components from brokers was related to the price component. According to the findings, dominant direction of market was achieved as "producer→ brokers→ wholesalers→ factories and workshops→ retailers→ consumer". Also, the most important distinguishing variables of producers based on the amount of transactions with brokers were the variables of the history of training courses (0.735), The amount of income from other economic activities (-0.640), and the garden distance from the sales market (0.605). Therefore, while emphasizing on educational programs, with the prosperity of Cornelian Cherry production cooperatives in the region, it is possible to organize the warehousing and transportation management of the produced crop to the market. Also, planning for government supporting purchases and creating a support office for Cornelian Cherry marketing in the region could diminish the role of brokers in the dominant market direction.

The predominant path of Cornelian Cherry marketing in the region often begins with brokers (sometimes up to a few brokers) and reaches at the end to the consumer in a few steps, and brokers are effective in determining the price of the product. The brokers appear to have full control of the Cornelian Cherry market in the studied region and they always have the upper hand in economic bargaining with producers and buyers; and control the pricing in the market. Also, the lack of knowledge of producers of Cornelian Cherry in various fields of marketing, including customer acquisition, advertising, storage, the right sales routes and new marketing methods, are major obstacle to the prosperity of Cornelian Cherry marketing in the region. The special characteristics of production and sale of Cornelian Cherry (such as seasonality, corruption, lack of insurance and government facilities in the region and problems related to proper storage and maintenance facilities and knowledge and lack of industrial and semi-industrial processing and conversion workshops in the region) seem to lead producers to trade with brokers. Meanwhile, the existence of many intermediaries between the producer and the consumer also increase the basic marketing problems of this product. Rising prices, through the number of brokers and intermediaries in the marketing paths, will also have a negative impact on the marketing boom of the region and improve the productivity of Cornelian Cherry production. It is obvious that laying the government financial and executive support for the construction of processing industries and production of Cornelian Cherry in the region can reduce the negative and active presence of brokers in the dominant marketing paths, and increase the profitability of Cornelian Cherry producers in the region. Therefore, in order to improve Cornelian Cherry marketing in the region, the study findings introduce a clear path for the gradual elimination of the position of brokers.

The increase in water demand and the expansion of water pollution due to the development of agricultural, urban and industrial activities have led to a serious risk of water quality in many places. Therefore, its rational and logical management has become very difficult and complicated. In recent decades, concerns about water pollution from agricultural activities and its consequences have been growing. The existing regulations are not sufficient to limit the water pollution of the agricultural sector and to achieve the desired environmental consequences. Thus, economic tools have increasingly been proposed as an affordable way to limit pollution. Therefore, the side effects of water consumption in agriculture are vital issues for controlling and managing water pollution. The recent challenges in water resources of the Zayandehroud basin have led to the fact that this area has not been safe from water pollution and also the supply of high quality water is a major challenge in this basin. Therefore, providing a purposeful cropping pattern by reducing the side effects of water pollution caused by agricultural activities for the Zayandehroud basin can play an effective role in the quantitative and qualitative management of watershed resources.

In this study, the water resources management system of Zayandehroud basin has been modeled based on a multi-objective programming model. This model includes hydrological functions, land allocation, resource transfer and exploitation capacities, and the objective function is to maximize the net present value of the total benefits at the basin level. Also, the amount of water available in different sub-basins, the crop yield and net water requirements was simulated using the WEAP model for the 2040 horizon. This data was used as input in the economic model. In the next step, the side effects of water pollution are estimated and internalized in the economic model using permissible limit of water pollution in constraint and the cost of water pollution in the objective function. The mechanism designed to internalize the side effects of water pollution is simulated using the SWAT model and added to the integrated water management model of the basin as environmental constraint and cost of nitrate losses in objective function. Therefore, by comparing the results of these two models, it is possible to evaluate the internalization of the side effects of water pollution on farmers' livelihoods and the cropping pattern in the basin.

Cropping pattern under basic conditions was applied in WEAP software for different regions. Yield and net water requirements of products were simulated using MABIA tools. The results were extracted by each region and then estimated at basin level. The results of the optimal cropping pattern after simulating the hydrological parameters of the basin showed that the gross margin compared to the current conditions for Najafabad, North Mahyar, Lenjanat, Kuhpayeh-Segzi, Isfahan-Borkhar and Ben-Saman regions was 14, 5, 15,18, 15 and 20 million Rials per hectare, respectively. The increase in the share of irrigation technologies in the economic model compared to the current model for Najafabad, Lenjanat, Kuhpayeh-Segzi, Isfahan-Borkhar and Ben-Saman regions was 40, 57, 35, 45 and 91 percent, respectively.Therefore, it can be expected that by changing the cropping pattern and also increasing the use of new irrigation systems, it is possible to improve the livelihood of farmers in the basin according to the current and future hydrological conditions. But these changes have increased the side effects of pollution on the basin. Therefore, it is necessary to provide a model that, in addition to improving the benefit, also reduces the cost of nitrate losses. The results of the optimal bioeconomic model indicate that with the application of this model, the rate of gross margin and the cost of nitrate losses have been obtained at 58 and 28 million Rials per hectare, respectively. Comparison of this model and the optimal economic model shows that farmers' gross margin and nitrate losses have decreased about 3 and 2 million Rials per hectare, respectively. Comparison of the current and optimal bioeconomic model also shows that while improving the gross margin by 12 million Rials, the rate of nitrate losses below the allowable level in the basin can be realized.

Zayandehroud basin is one of the most important watersheds in the country, which is facing the challenge of quantitative and qualitative water shortages. The main purpose of this study is to quantitatively and qualitatively manage water resources and evaluate the consequences of internalizing the side effects of water pollution on this type of management. The results of the study showed that using the optimal economic cropping pattern will increase the farmers' gross margin and improve their livelihoods.  Also, comparing the results of the economic model with the multi-objective bioeconomic model showed that considering the side effects of water resources pollution in some areas is effective and in others is ineffective. Therefore, it is recommended that in future studies, considering the effective role of different policies in the field of water resources quality, the effects of different scenarios of climate change, drought, population growth, etc. be examined and analyzed.