نشریه تحلیل های اقتصادی توسعه ایران
سال هفتم شماره 2 (پیاپی 20، پاییز و زمستان 1398)

Expanding exports through a diversified export basket can be effective in securing export earnings and long-term growth. In this study, the factors affecting the diversification of non-oil export in Iran with an emphasis on the real exchange rate misalignment during the period of 1981-2014 have been investigated. At First, the real exchange rate misalignment was measured by using a vector auto- regressive (VAR) model. Results show that there were two great misalignment in this years in Iran. Finaly, the effect of real exchange rate misalignment. on the volatility of non-oil exports in Iran was estimated by using a vector auto- regressive (VAR) model. The results indicate that the size of government, per capita GDP and openness have had a positive impact on the diversification of non-oil exports. While the real exchange rate misalignment and political instability have had a negative impact on the non-oil exports diversification. Hence, the implementation of appropriate foreign exchange policies, in the long run, by eliminating the exchange rate misalignmen increase the diversification of non-oil exports.

In today’s world, tourism is the industry of the century and has a progressive perspective. An industry with high potential in creating new jobs which has a significant role in economic growth and reducing poverty and it is always pointed that tourism can generate income and save developing countries from having single product economy. Meanwhile the sustainability of the industry and its revenue and finding an appropriate model to represent the factors affecting the tourism income are of great concern. Among all the factors which have been considered in previous papers in this field, the innovation has been neglected while it is a key driver in all tourism-related sectors to survive and grow especially in the industries with the aspect of competitiveness. The innovation can increase the revenue by building competitive advantage and positively affecting the competitiveness and enhancing the productivity. So this study focuses on the effect of the innovation on tourism income in D8 Islamic countries in the period 2010 - 2017. The results confirm the positive and statistically significant effect of innovation on tourism income and considering it in the model, even the other factors such as governance index, real exchange rate and trade openness can be dropped out of the model and yet, keeping GDP and infrastructures in the equation, the final model to estimate the tourism income is obtained.

The main objective of this study is to survey the effect of economic uncertainty on the effectiveness of outstanding bank’s credits in Iran. For this purpose, required quarterly data are collected for the period 1991 - 2017 from the Iran economy. Then, the economic uncertainty index has been estimated from the fluctuations of exchange rate, inflation rate, gold coin price, and total stock price index with ARCH and GARCH method. In the next step, a compound index extracted with the "Principal Components Analysis" method from these estimated indexes. Finally, with the use of the "SVAR" model, the effect of economic uncertainty on the effectiveness of monetary policies has been examined. The results of impulse response functions show that GDP growth has a negative relationship with the estimated uncertainty index and this means that the amount of GDP will reduce when uncertainty becomes higher. Generally, the results of this study implied that economic uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on the effectiveness of the monetary policy. Hence, one can conclude that, in a situation where economic uncertainty is high in the economy, the effectiveness of monetary policies is diminishing.

Low insurance penetration rate is one of the current problems of Iran's economy. According to the latest published statistics, Iran's insurance penetration rate in 2018 was equal to 2.01 percent, which is ranked 63rd among 147 countries in the world. The issue is the improvement of this index in various development programs. Therefore, in this study, using a dynamic econometric model, the effects of human capital and value added growth of the industrial sector along with other macroeconomic indicators on the penetration rate of Iranian insurance have been investigated. The results show that during the period 1391-1351, human capital has a direct positive and significant effect on insurance penetration coefficient, while the growth of value added in the industrial sector directly and indirectly affects the insurance penetration coefficient. Among other explanatory variables, inflation and unemployment have a significant negative effect on insurance penetration. In contrast, the growth of real per capita income has had a positive and significant effect on insurance penetration. Despite the fact that the insurance penetration rate is strongly affected by the macroeconomic conditions of the country, it is recommended that the expansion of premiums paid under the industrial sectors, especially in the oil and energy sectors, due to the positive impact of value added on the insurance penetration rate. , Be considered.

One of the current problems of Iran's economy is the high unemployment rate. According to the latest report from the Statistics Center of Iran, the unemployment rate has been more than 10 percent. One way to create jobs is to export goods and services, which creates the need for labor in the export sector. However, it should be noted that exports also import goods and services in order to supply raw materials, intermediate goods and technology. Therefore, while exports lead to job creation, imports are lost. In this study, by using the input-output table of 1390, the Statistics Center of Iran, the employment amount of exports and also reduction of employment of imports for export 14 major economic sectors of Iran, is determined. In this regard, the model introduced by Tacero et al. (2017) is used. The results show that the amount of employment created by exports, with the deduction of intermediate imports for export, is 2,034,501 Person. totally, intermediate imports for export have lost 170,440 jobs. Among the economic sectors, the agricultural sector has lost the most jobs due to intermediate imports from exports. This amount is calculated as 58,504 people, which is 34% of the total lost employment due to intermediate imports for export.

Export is one of the variables affecting the growth of output and value added in the economy.Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of changes in export structure on value added and Compensation of Employees in different sectors of Iranian economy between 2001-2011 using SDA model. Input-output tables of Iran in 2001 and 2011 were used as statistical base for this study. The model results show that changes in export structure (with a constant volume of exports) has reduced the value added of the economy by 30384.7 Billion Rials. The change in the level of exports (with a constant structure of exports) has increased the value added of the economy by 10880412 Billion Rials. The three sectors including "Residential & Business Services", "Machinery" and "Chemicals, Rubber and Plastics" had highest increase in value added due to the change of export structure. Increase of value added in these sectors was 11303039.24, 99749.42 and 6674.78 Billion Rials respectively. Other results of the study showed that export restructuring has caused an increase of 1793.84 Billion Rials in employee compensation in economy.The three sectors, including "Chemicals, Rubber and Plastics", "Transport and Communications", and "Machinery" had the most positive effects from export restructuring. The increment of compensation of employees in these sectors was 1999.00, 1323.00 and 365.19 Billion Rials, respectively.

The issue of inequality is a major challenge in development. Regional inequality usually occurs in resources, activities, population and production, so that each factor, in turn, strengthens other factors and expands the cycle of regional inequality and causes economic, social and political damage in the regions of the country. Because in the process of eliminating regional inequalities in the country, economic poles may be formed in the country and improve in terms of inequality indicators in the short term, but not paying attention to the polarization process and not overflowing growth to In the long run, less developed regions will exacerbate increasing regional inequalities in the future. For this reason, using Wolfson, Duclass, Stephen and rey polarization indices and Gini coefficient, Atkinson, logarithm -variance and variance-logarithm and income inequality dispersion indices in the Iranian economy during the years 1379 to 1395 And finally examined the relationship and causality between polarization and income inequality, which based on the results, the process of polarization in the Iranian economy reduces income inequality among the provinces, which is the case with the Duclass, Stephen and rey polarization index were more prominent than the Wolfson index. Therefore, growth poles should be formed in the provinces according to the talents and land management of each province, and in order to prevent the increase of regional inequality, using growth transfer mechanisms such as tax tools, the growth poles Moved the economy to other more deprived areas.

Good governance is a new model for sustainable human development, with the interactive mechanism of the three sectors of government, the private sector, and civil society, so that countries can use all their capabilities in comprehensive development. Also, the economic performance of countries over time depends to a large extent on their political, institutional and legal environment. These institutions and policies characterize the quality of governance among countries. The purpose of this study was to measure the effect of good governance on competitiveness in Tehran Stock Exchange. The research sample consists of 11 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 2012-2017.In this research, Levine-Lean and Chu tests and Kao's test to examine the coherent and long-run relationship between variables are used to conduct variables testing. Based on the results, the company's stock returns, governance index, real rate and total capital are mana, while the gross domestic product and exchange rate have a single root. Also, the results of the Cao test confirm the coherent relationship between the model variables. Therefore, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between corporate corruption and independent variables. After analyzing the static and coherent relationship between the research variables, using the combined data and multiple regression analysis with E-Views software and the panel data technique, we examined the research hypothesis.The results of the research show that good governance can have a positive and significant impact on competitiveness,

Today, one of the most important challenges facing the global economy is environmental pollution and climate changes. Improving knowledge and technology can be one of the factors controlling the emission of pollutants. One of the newest indicators that reflects the level of knowledge and technology used in the country's production structure is the economic complexity index. In this study, using data from 99 countries in the period of 1992-2017, the impact of economic complexity as a measure of the level of technology, knowledge and skills of an economy, on environmental pollution in the framework of Kuznets' environmental curve hypothesis has been investigated. Environmental pollution is measured by the carbon dioxide emission. A panel data model with Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) has been used to estimate the relationship between variables. The results of this estimation show that economic complexity has a negative and significant effect on environmental pollution, and also the Kuznets' environmental curve has been empirically confirmed. These results indicate that by improving technology, knowledge and skills in the economy, carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced.

Given that most Islamic countries are including developing or less developed countries, face problems such as low levels of income and low rates of economic growth, these countries need rapid economic growth to get rid of such problems. And since Tourism as a highest earning industry in the world, it can play a significant role in the economic growth of countries, including Islamic countries. And considering that before the development of the tourism industry, the use of resources should be such that the resources that will enter this sector in the future will not be wasted and will be optimally allocated. Therefore, this study evaluates the tourism industry efficiency in OIC Countries using data envelopment analysis method in 2016. Also, input-oriented BCC and CCR were used to assess the performance of countries. The findings showed that 32% of the countries under review, based on the CCR model and 48% based on the BCC model, are efficient and the rest are inefficient. Also, using the Anderson-Peterson model (AP), the countries of the efficient were ranked according to the CCR model in Bahrain and based on the BCC model, Turkey ranked first, and finally the reference countries of the pattern of inefficient countries were introduced and suggested.

Today,the role and importance of energy consumption in the process of economic development and the role of financial markets in economic growth has been proven by guiding financial flows from unproductive to productive sectors.Due to the complexity of economic systems in different countries of the world,this relationship may be asymmetric.Given that economic growth in Iran has fluctuated greatly,the study of the asymmetric relationship between energy consumption and financial development as two factors affecting sustainable development and economic growth can be the path of Iran's economy to growth.And sustainable development will help a lot.The present study examines the asymmetric and nonlinear relationship between energy consumption,financial development and economic growth with emphasis on capital and labor for the Iranian economy during the period1978to2016.To investigate asymmetric correlation between variables,a NARDL self-regression approach has been used.To investigate the causal relationship between the variables under study,Nonlinear Grager Causality Test Diks & Panchenko nonparametric approach is Used.The results show that there is also asymmetric accumulation between variables, especially economic growth and energy consumption. The results of nonlinear causality show that there is a one-sided causality of economic growth to energy consumption, capital and labor, so implement conservative energy consumption policies, efficient and efficient use of energy in manufacturing sectors, direct capital to productive sectors. And having an export advantage, providing more facilities to the private sector and providing training tailored to the needs of the Iranian labor market, plays a major role in placing the Iranian economy on the path of sustainable growth and development.

Development is a cultural evolutionary process which is neither natural, nor artificial, neither genetically transmitted nor rationally designed. These changes, however, are spontaneous, gradual, incremental and inexorable. They are self-generating and have their own course of action. They are neither exogenously determined nor are mechanically moved. Successful institutions, though they serve human purpose, are not deliberately designed but are developed through an evolutionary process. Thus, development is an evolutionary spontaneous process, emerges in an open and free environment. Any attempt to engineere these changes mechanically, however, would divert development process from its evolutionary pathDevelopment is a cultural evolutionary process which is neither natural, nor artificial, neither genetically transmitted nor rationally designed. These changes, however, are spontaneous, gradual, incremental and inexorable. They are self-generating and have their own course of action. They are neither exogenously determined nor are mechanically moved. Successful institutions, though they serve human purpose, are not deliberately designed but are developed through an evolutionary process. Thus, development is an evolutionary spontaneous process, emerges in an open and free environment. Any attempt to engineere these changes mechanically, however, would divert development process from its evolutionary path