نشریه مطالعات جمعیتی
سال ششم شماره 1 (پیاپی 11، بهار و تابستان 1399)

Despite a significant rise in demographic knowledge and related studies in Iran over the recent decades, lower attention has been paid to household demography, particularly, changes in the average household size in Iran. Most conducted studies are mainly cross-sectional, small-scale and/or descriptive. The present study investigated the changes in the average household size, and its determinants in Iran over the period 1984-2018 using a longitudinal approach (quasi-panel) and based on the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) data. The results revealed that the average household size has decreased about an average of 2 people (from 5.4 persons per household in 1980s to 3.4 in 2010s). Moreover, the results of space-state time-series models showed that the effect of variables of fertility, marriage and urbanization on household size has been reduced, while the negative effects of divorce, life expectancy, inflation rate and housing costs have been risen over this period. Based on hierarchical age-period-cohort models, the presence of people in different cohorts has also affected their household size. This result shows that in addition to period analysis, cohort approach should be taken into account for a better understanding of changes in the demographic phenomena across time because people in various cohorts usually have distinctive experiences which may lead to different behaviors.

Changes in different aspects of family and its correspondence with widespread structural and ideational changes in Iran has been documented in previous research but no study to date has examined gender differences in family roles at the national level. This paper uses data from the 2014-2015 Time Use Survey, representing urban areas of Iran, and applies the relative resources and time availability approaches to describe the differences between wives and husbands in participation in the total unpaid household related activities across their family life course and explain such differences. The results suggest a clear male-bread winning and female home-making pattern, although wives and husbands allocated similar amount of time to either the community or individual activities. These gender differences include not only the time allocated to the family and household activities, but also their pattern and life course variations. In addition, the wives’ experience is more consistent with the predictions of the time availability and relative resources approaches than that of husbands. Adjusting for other factors does not remove the association between gender and participation in the family- and household-related activities, suggesting the predominance of gender values and norms over socio-economic and demographic factors examined in this paper.

This study aims to investigate the factors affecting the desire to continue living single among the youth of Qom. In this article, the theories of "Parsons's structural functionalism", "William Goode's modernization", "Giddens' modernity" and especially "Tocqueville individualism" were used. The research method is descriptive-analytical and the data collection tool is a researcher-made questionnaire. The study population consisted of young people who had never been married, aged 20 to 39, in Qom, of which the sample size was 269. The results indicate that male respondents showed a willingness to remain single until the age of 33.8 years.  This was 31/7 among female respondents. The results of the hypothesis test also indicate that among the independent variables, positive attitude to women's employment, individualism, social trust, traditional family attitude in choosing a spouse and youth religious endorsement had a positive relationship with the tendency to continue living single, while the relationship between increasing education and tendency to remain in single life was not confirmed. In general, the results of this study indicate that in addition to economic factors, cultural and social factors should also be considered in the encouragement of youth to marriage.

The purpose of this article is to explore the understanding of rural migrants living in Arak about inequality. For this purpose, we have used the Grounded Theory as a qualitative approach. Research data were collected through interviews and direct observation. The study population includes rural immigrants living in the city of Arak who migrated to this city in the last 50 years, and the samples included 22 people from different age and occupation groups. From the description of the findings, 50 basic concepts and 15 categories were extracted; Central theme which create perception of inequality is lack of benefiting. Causal conditions influencing the lack of benefiting include: Socio-economic status, status heterogeneity, quality of life style, how to perceive benefiting, and comparing, which by means of interventional conditions such as: media views, network characteristics of relationships, and quality of life are adjusted and intensified. Based on the finding, immigrants adopt the following strategies: tolerance, false pretend of benefiting, and receiving assistance from supporting organizations. The consequences include an increased life dissatisfaction, and a sense of social differentiation and it can lead to mistrust and reduced social solidarity.

The present study uses a qualitative method to investigate the reasons affecting migration and social problems of immigrants in the north Persian Gulf district of Tehran. The sample size in this study was 23 immigrants living in the north Persian Gulf district who were selected based on theoretical sampling.  Interviews were conducted in winter 2019 and spring 2020 and were analyzed using conventional content analysis. Findings showed that the feeling of insecurity in the district, crowded and inappropriate health situation district and the unfavorable situation of public transportation are the most important current social problems of immigrants in the study area. For immigrants’ unemployment at the origin was a necessary condition and the presence of acquaintances at the destination was a sufficient condition for immigration and obtaining a job was the most important outcome of immigration. However, long-term and short-term stays at the destination make a difference in the attitude of immigrants towards staying at the destination or returning to the origin. It seems the centralized policy of development causes not only greater poverty for the lower inhabitants of the country's marginal provinces, but also in the long-time, it will cause social problems and deviations in the suburb and marginalized districts of Tehran.

Healthy living makes sense in a healthy city. A healthy city is protective of wellbeing and is required to determine the appropriate conditions for activities. The present survey aimed to study the effect of urban health with environmental amenities indicators and demographic factor on the tendency of citizens to move in 5 selected regions in Tehran in the year 2018.  A number of 1103 citizens of districts 2.7.10.19.21 were interviewed using a probability sampling. We used a questionnaire technique to collect information and SPSS software was used for the statistical analysis. According to the findings, the seven indicators of urban health in the study areas were measured and it was shown that the areas have significant differences in terms of the amenities. The results of logistic regression showed that an average of about 12% tendency of spatial displacement or movement of respondents is explained by demographic variables and urban health. Urban health along with other demographic variables had an inverse effect on the tendency to displacement in all controlled models. Wherever, there was greater urban health, there was less propensity to move or displace. It was also observed that the lowest tendency for movement was among respondents of regions two and seven.

The adoption of cultural policies in the face of foreign immigrants is, first of all, the image that policymakers present of "insiders" and "outsiders". The human rights policy for these immigrants is based on the same perception of insiders and outsiders. Following the occupation of Afghanistan by the former Soviet Union and the subsequent civil war in the country, how to deal with the crisis of Afghan migration to Iran has been repeatedly considered in the country's policy institutions over the past four decades. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has declared Iran's interaction with Afghan refugees during this period as a successful example of hosting a large refugee population. The present study, as a "policy analysis", aims to examine the cultural policies guaranteeing the human rights of Afghan immigrants in Iran. by adopting the method of Laclau and Mouffe discourse analysis, we examined the official discussions of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, Imam Khomeini's phrases and some officials about Afghan immigrants.  According to the obtained results, the macro-cultural policy of the country has been mainly Islamic cosmopolitan and far from the components of nationalism; Therefore, Afghan immigrants have been welcomed as Muslim brothers. Only at times when the discourses of developmentalism and liberal globalism have had relative power, some nationalist demands placed some restrictions on these immigrants.

The average duration of unemployment is more important than unemployment rate. Because the unemployment duration is a dynamic criterion, while the unemployment rate is a static criterion. The main purpose of this paper is to determine the unemployment duration among unemployed people aged 20-39 years old in Iran by age, gender, and province of residence in 2006, 2011, and 2016. This is a generational - cross-sectional research in which the general population and housing census data have been used. The technique of data analysis was the calculation of the Unemployment Life Expectancy (ULE) using the life table, which was performed with R.v.3.2.3 software. According to the findings, six models were identified to explain changes of ULE: 1- Model of continuing increase of ULE; 2- Model of temporary increase of ULE; 3- Model of unexpected increase of ULE; 4- Model of stabilized ULE; 5- Model of continuing decrease of ULE; and 6- Model of temporary decrease of ULE. The first, third and sixth models indicate that the employment age is delayed among the population aged 20-25 years old in most provinces during 2006-2008. The population aged 20 years in the provinces of Kermanshah, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, and the Lorestan have experienced the longest unemployment duration, while the population aged 20 years in the provinces of Yazd, Semnan, and Khorasan Razavi have experienced the shortest unemployment duration.

Iran is one of the countries where its pension system is financed by the pay-as-you-go methods. One of the main problems of this method is the changes in the ratio of the active population to the retired population, which is constantly decreasing in Iran. In fact, Iran is exposed to population aging and needs to plan for the future. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of population aging on the future of Iran's pension system. For this, we simulated a 55-period overlapping generation model for the economy of Iran. The results showed that with declining population growth rates and increasing population aging, GDP will decline sharply in the coming years, and if there are no structural reforms, the pension system will face a persistent and increasing deficit. Assuming parametric reforms in the pension system, such as an increase in the retirement age, the results showed that the deficit will reach 9% of GDP in 2056, if the retirement age is increased to 55 only for women,. If the retirement age for men and women rises to the age 60, the deficit will reach 6.5% of GDP in 2056, and if the retirement age for them increased to 65 years, the budget deficit would reach to only 2% of GDP in 2061, ultimately, and then would reach to zero

Population age structure can have significant effects on economic performance considering the different economic behavior of individuals in various stages of life. In this paper, the impact of population age structure on economic growth was investigated using provincial data. For this purpose, the impact of the working-age ratio, young working-age share, old working-age share and literacy rate (in the first model) and the working-age ratio, prime-age share, elderly share and literacy rate (in the second model) on the economic growth was examined using provincial panel data. The period of 2006, 2011 and 2016 was considered.  Findings of the study show that the working-age ratio, young working-age share, prime-age share and literacy rate have a positive effect and the old working-age share and elderly share have a negative effect on economic growth of the provinces of Iran.

The investigation of factors that lead to increasing or decreasing hope for the future in a society is important. The present article seeks to investigate the demographic and socio-economic factors affecting hope for the future in Tehran. The sample of this study consists of 1200 married people (610 women and 590 men) living in Tehran. Data were collected using a questionnaire technique and multi-stage sampling method with proportional allocation in the second half of 2016. The results showed that with increasing age, the number of children, the feelings of socio-economic insecurity and psychological insecurity, hope for the future decreases. While, with the increase of organizational trust, the number of educational years and the general trust of the respondents, hope for the future increases. These results indicate that there is no suitable socio-economic and psychological context to meet the expectations of the respondents, especially for educated people and those who have more children, and therefore their hope for the future has decreased. Hence, we should have a doubt in the quality and sustainability of demographic phenomenon, when there is socio-economic and psychological insecurity in a society. And the general result of these conditions can be the deviation of population behaviors from a balance status and problematization of quality and quantity levels of population metabolism.

Human capital is the knowledge and skills that enables individuals to create value in the economic system. The purpose of this study was to calculate the human capital of the provinces and provision of a comprehensive assessment of this index in the whole country. The two sub-indicators of educational capacity and labor force benefit have been employed to calculate the global capital index in Iran. The data derived from the 2016 census for 31 provinces of the country and the method of calculating was the standard score and the weighted average of the indicators. Findings show that the total human capital index in Iran is 51.1percent. The highest index is in Tehran province with 57 percent and the lowest is in Sistan and Baluchistan province with 43.4 percent. Tehran province with the highest educational capacity, 70.9 percent and the highest benefit of labor force, 43.2 percent has the first rank in the country's human capital. Sistan and Baluchistan province with 50.7 percent has the lowest educational capacity and Lorestan province with 32.2 percent has the lowest rank in the labor force benefit in 2016. The results indicate the superiority of the academic capacity index over the benefit of the labor force. But there is no adaptation in the way of using the labor force in proportion to the educational potentials of the country.