فصلنامه برنامه ریزی توسعه کالبدی
پیاپی 19 (پاییز 1399)

Today, the spatial view of development at the national, regional, and local levels is so important that most countries pay special attention to it in their policy-making and planning systems. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the content of the fifth five-year development plan of the Islamic Republic of Iran from the perspective of spatial planning. The research method is descriptive-analytical. The statistical population of this research is the document of the Fifth Development Plan of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2011-2016. In addition to various previous researches and valid documents, the opinions of professors were used to compile the criteria and indicators of the present study. In order to achieve the goal, the required data and information were collected by the documentary method. Content analysis and Shannon entropy method were used to analyze the data. Findings showed that the three categories of centralism, poor participation and comparative advantage are obstacles to the realization of the spatial planning attitude in the Fifth Development Plan document. Among these factors, the emphasis on comparative advantage is the most important factor that has caused the spatial attitude not to be considered in the development of the country's policy-making and planning system. This result emphasizes that: 1- Areas with potential for development were prioritized, and 2- Due to the dominance of the public sector in the formulation and implementation of plans and programs and special attention to areas with potential, people's participation is low.

In recent years, urbanization has been one of the most significant processes of change in society, which is usually accompanied by the destruction of agricultural and natural lands. In their decision-making processes to protect the urban environment, managers need to properly consider the extent and direction of urban growth. The purpose of this study is to predict changes in urban land use in the city of Tabriz, using the SLEUTH urban growth model. The output of the model predicts the growth rate and direction of the city by 2050. The five coefficients obtained for the study area show that according to the historical scenario, the birth rate and the diffusion coefficient are dominant. The high rate of fertility in this area indicates that the probability of converting each urban cell to a city center diffusion cell is high, and as a result, the growth rate of the new diffusion center in the covered area is also high. The high emission coefficient indicates the high probability of new urban spots resulting from spontaneous growth and their transformation into new centers of urban growth. The results of validation using Kappa coefficient show that the modeling has an accuracy of 97.72%. The obtained results can be used to predict the change of urban land use. The obtained results are the outcome of instrumental rationality, and therefore their application requires a critical approach to them.

Recently, fluctuations in land and housing prices have been a national concern for the people and the government. In recent years, factors such as population growth, limited construction space, especially in metropolitan areas, and the tendency to invest outside the cities have led to an influx of tourists to the surrounding rural areas. This has paved the way for rising land prices in rural areas, speculation in the land and housing market, as well as increasing heterogeneous physical changes in rural areas. Binalood township of Khorasan Razavi province is one of the regions that is facing the development of tourism and high demand for land and housing, with fluctuations and rising land and housing prices. The present study seeks to investigate the most important causes affecting the change and fluctuation of land and housing prices in rural areas of Shandiz District of Binalood Township by descriptive-analytical method. The statistical population of this study includes rural managers, real estate consultants and residents of Shandiz villages. Using the Cochran's formula, 250 households in 11 villages with more than 30 households were selected for this study. A questionnaire has been designed in two parts, which includes the dimensions affecting land prices and housing prices with 12 dimensions and 52 indicators. The results of data analysis in SPSS environment indicate that according to Friedman test, the infrastructure-physical dimension with an average of 5.32 in the group of rural managers, 5.67 in the group of real estate consultants and 5.23 among rural residents had the greatest impact on land and housing prices. Also, based on the results of Kruskal-Wallis test, there is a significant difference between the dimensions affecting land and housing prices among the studied villages. Finally, using the path analysis process, the extent of direct and indirect impact and the sum of each of the determined dimensions on the price of land was determined. According to that, the functional dimension had the greatest effect on land prices and the spatial-functional dimension had the greatest impact on housing prices in the study areas.

With the formation of the process of inequality of access to welfare considered by human societies, economic and social contexts and motives as well as factors of population displacement also emerge. Despite all the efforts made towards rural development in the form of various projects, the process of depopulation of villages continues. One of the important policies in the process of rural development of the country is to spend development credits to achieve the goals of rural development. The present study evaluates the impact of construction credits on rural population stability. This research is of practical type and has an analytical nature. The statistical population of this study is all villages with more than twenty households in Zanjan township by rural area (Dehestan). To evaluate the effects, construction credits were considered separately for construction sectors and rural areas. Then, using statistical and econometric and spatial analysis, the effects are evaluated. The duration of the study period is 21 years, which includes the latest available data, from 1991 to 2011. Dynamic panel model and Stata 14 software were used for data analysis. The results of the study show that the funds spent on rural development such as electricity, rural pilot projects, rural schools and health centers have a positive and significant effect on maintaining the rural population. But the effect of credits spent on water and gas resources in maintaining the rural population has not been significant.

The use of public transportation, along with benefits such as saving time, reducing fuel consumption, economic savings, reducing air pollution, reducing noise pollution, and proper safety, also increases the quality of urban life and increases social interactions. Therefore, understanding the demographic, technical-promotional and socio-cultural factors affecting the decision-making process of citizens in the use of public transport will play an important role in the planning and policy-making system in this area. In this study, to determine the behavior of citizens when using public transportation, a descriptive and analytical method with Tobit model has been used.The data was collected in 2019 and includes 300 citizens of Mashhad. The required data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire whose validity and reliability were confirmed. The results showed that the distance between the place of residence and the place of employment has a negative effect on the use of public transport system. But factors such as the presence of highly educated people in the family, access to bicycles, compliance with pollution control criteria at home, personal literacy and awareness of the long-term dangers of using a private vehicle, have positive impacts on the use of public transport systems. According to the findings, two suggestions were made: 1- Educating and informing citizens about the long-term dangers of private vehicles, and 2- Targeting literate households for citizenship education related to public transportation. These people can encourage citizens to be sustainable and protect the environment.

The present study has physically analyzed the effect of the destination image variable on the perceived quality of tangible and intangible factors and the perceived value of urban tourism areas. The sample size was calculated using the Cochran's formula for unknown communities to 173 people and were selected from tourists visiting the Darabad area of Tehran. The obtained data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test, multiple linear regression in SPSS software and structural equation modeling in AMOS software. Findings from the modeling of structural equations and factor loads calculated in the standard state, indicate that the quality of tangible factors with a factor load of 0.70, has been more affected by the mental image of tourists. After that, the mental image of tourists with a factor load of 0.64 had an effect on the quality of perceived tangible factors. Furthermore, the mental image of tourists has affected the perceived value of services with a factor load of 0.45. The role of mediating factors in the quality of perceived tangible factors and the quality of perceived intangible factors on the perceived value of tourism services has been measured using multiple linear regression. According to the results, the quality of perceived tangible factors with a beta statistic value of 0.205 had a greater effect on the perceived value of services in the Darabad tourist area, followed by the quality of perceived intangible factors with a beta value of 0.193.

Today, the developing world is experiencing unprecedented growth that has a significant impact on land use intensification. Therefore, modeling and predicting growth patterns is crucial for natural resource planners and proponents to formulate a sustainable development strategy. The main purpose of modeling is to identify the factors and trends of future changes based on past changes. Monitoring the occurred changes in land units requires the use of rapid and appropriate methods to gather information and integrate layers of information. In the present study, based on image quality, the trend and rate of land use changes in Shush Township in a 30-year time series (1987, 2000 and 2017) have been investigated using Landsat satellite images and TM, OLI and MSS sensors. Different sections were processed and analyzed using ArcGIS, IDRISI and ENVI software. After classifying the images by the most similar supervised method, the classified maps were obtained with an average Kappa coefficient accuracy of 96.1%. The results of detection of changes showed that the largest decrease in area has occurred for uncovered land by 49078 hectares, and the highest increase was for agricultural land by 52691 hectares, which indicates the change of use of uncovered land in favore of agricultural land.

Today, social harms are an important and growing issue in many countries around the world. Many researchers believe that disorders, anomalies, unemployment, addiction, poverty, suicide and divorce are among the social ills that originate from individual, psychological, environmental and social factors. The spread of social ills and the increasing vulnerability of societies have imposed enormous costs on governments. therefore; Policymakers, executives, managers, stakeholders as well as researchers are concerned about prioritizing this issue. They try to investigate the emergence and spread of social harms and prevent their emergence and expansion. Therefore, this study intends to investigate the factors affecting social harms in the suburbs of Yazd and to provide appropriate solutions to reduce and control these harms. This research is a descriptive-analytical type whose statistics and information have been obtained by survey. The statistical population of this study consists of households living in the following quarters: Koshtargah, AmirAbad, Sajadieh, NasrAbad, Kasnavieh, MahdiAbad, Fahadan, MaryamAbad, Charkhab and SayedAlShohada. Using Cochran's formula, a sample of 284 households was selected by stratified random sampling. The results show that unemployment, low family income and the quality of housing are the most important factors affecting the formation of social harms in the suburbs of Yazd. According to the results, there was no significant relationship between migration and social harms. Also, trust and confidence in the neighbor in the suburbs was the most effective indicator of social security In other words; in the study area, for one unit of increase in the variable of confidence in neighbors, the feeling of security has also increased by 7.442 units.