نشریه نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران
پیاپی 28 (پاییز و زمستان 1398)

The purpose of this study was to investigate some demographic, economic and social variables on marital status (married / divorced) and calculate divorce risk. In this study, data from 2% of the population census of 2016 were used. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the data. In this study demographic variables such as gender, age, child bearing for women, migration; economic variables such as activity status, household ownership status, housing unit size and social variables such as type of household supervision, literacy status, education status, number of years of education and a college degree was related with marital status (divorced / married).. The findings indicated that the behavior of divorced men and women was quite different. Divorced men want to join another family after a divorce, while divorced women form a new family. Higher education and having children for women reduces the chances of divorce. Divorced women are on the job market because of divorce. The odds of divorce for unemployed and inactive men are 2.5 and 1.3 times higher than for employed men, respectively.

In this research, the fertility transition has been analyzed for 25 years involving multi-variables. The 25 years from 1987 to 2011 are divided into five periods, and the birth history of women has been rebuilt using the Luther method for women aged 15 to 64 years old in two percent raw data of censuses conducted in the years 2006 and 2011. To calculate the fertility rate based on age and other covariates, we have used Poisson Regression andSchoumaker's proposed method. Results show that employment and educational attainment had the most significant effect on reducing the age-specific fertility rates and, in turn, total fertility rate. Employed and highly educated women in 2002-2006 had total fertility rates equal to 1.6 and 1.5, and from 2007 through 2011, the total fertility rate reached 1.43 and 1.45, respectively. In 2006, among Employed and highly educated women, age groups of 25-30 years and 25-34 years had taken over as the peak fertility age groups, respectively. Based on the 2011 census, those peak rates tilted to the age group of 25-39 and 30-39 years, respectively. Migration had a marginal but significant effect on the dependent variable.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the spatial structure of international immigrants in Iran using log-linear models. For this purpose, inter-provincal migration data were analyzed in the 2011 and 2016 censuses, and then the future of the spatial structure of migration flows will be projected by 2026. Findings indicated that the overall level of inter-provincial migration has increased by four percent during the two censuses of 2011 and 2016, and, Tehran has had the largest share in the origin and destination of immigration during the last two censuses and based on the findings will maintain this position until 2026. However, migration structure has not been stable for most provinces during the two censuses. The results of interactive component analysis of provinces show that the provinces have the most interaction with their neighboring provinces. Overall, the current spatial structure and also the future perspective of internal migration in Iran is influenced by the unequal and unbalanced pattern of development in the provinces of the country. Therefore, policies that can reduce regional inequalities in the country can help to the optimal redistribution of the national population.

Gender and immigration are two variable related to informal employments, in which women and immigrant tend to this kind of employment more than other groups. The purpose of this study is to survey the employment conditions of immigrant women in paid work at home and the factors that lead them to this type of employment .This qualitative study conducted by semi-structural interview and convenience sampling. Participants were 16 Afghan immigrant women in Tehran who work in “paid work at home”. After declaring the informed consent, a Semi-structured interview was conducted with each woman. Data were converted to texts, encoded, and classified into subcategories and then main categories. This study’s findings show that paid work at home is an unstable, fragmented, simple, full time with low wages that attracts poor immigrant women. This kind of work is in line with culture which imposes staying women at home and because of flexibility it can satisfy women. As a result, Paid work at home is a choice based on the socioeconomic status of immigrant women, which keeps them in an inferior position and exposes them to exploitation.

The purpose of this study is to assess the attitudes of elites under the auspices of the National Elite Foundation of Tehran Province about social, economic and scientific research factors in origin and destination as repulsive and attractive factors and how they affect the tendency of elites to emigrate abroad. The research method was qualitative and quantitative. In the qualitative section, 22 semi-structured and in-depth interviews were conducted with purposive sampling in 2018. The interviews were inductively coded, then categorized into subclasses and subcategories. The results of this stage showed that problems: social, economic, managerial, planning, legal and communication and technological infrastructures are among the factors repelling the migration of elites. In the quantitative section and survey method, 200 people were surveyed by cluster and quota methods. According to the theories of the world system, the pattern of cosmopolitanism, Lee and structural duality, dignity crisis, human capital and relative deprivation of factors affecting the migration of elites were explored. After regression analysis, it was observed that scientific, social and intervention factors in the destination and social factors at the origin affect the tendency of elites to emigrate abroad.

In the new theories of environmental demography, in addition to population size, population composition including age and sex composition, educational and subsistence composition is also identified as a factor that affects the population behavior with the environment. Inspired by these theories, this paper aims to explain the differences in agricultural water use in Iran, at the county (Shahrestan) level based on various demographic components. The data for the study is drawn from the combination of three databases of national population and housing census, national agricultural census and national survey based on the county unit, and analyzed by using the Partial Squares Structural Equation Modeling. The results indicate that although population and household size have been the dominant demographic variable affecting agricultural water consumption, subsistence composition, sex composition and rural age dependency ratio,as wll as educational composition of agricultural beneficiaries have also impacted the agricultural water consumption directly or through the land area or cultivation pattern combination.

Employment is social and economic issue that has individual and structural consequences. In the present study, the status and socio-economic predictors of employment among individuals who were born on 1976-1986 in Dehdasht city were examined. In order to do this, using researcher-made questionnaire and multi-stage sampling, a total of 389 individuals were surveyed. The findings of logistic regression analysis indicated that gender and skills-learning had a statistically significant impact on the likelihood of employment. Based on the findings of this study, it can be concluded that universities should pay more attention to training the skills related to labor market. For this purpose, it is suggested that some part of students courses in universities to be allocated to skills related to labor market needs. In addition, Effort to reducing the gender discrimination in labor market should be considered.